UPDATE AFTER FRI SCRATCHES: Jeremy Plonk's Exclusive Breeders' Cup Full-Card Picks - ONLY ON SUBSTACK

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FRIDAY

Race 5 – JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

4-BIG EVS (3-1 ML)

2-NO NAY METS (4-1 ML)

1-CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4-1 ML)

8-CHERRY BLOSSOM (12-1 ML) *new*

Generally speaking, Friday’s BC races rarely get more than 10% of my weekend bankroll, and there’s no additional comfort level this year. Saturday is just too good to walk into short-handed. Budget accordingly. Inner-half of gate is where you’d prefer to be in full-field turf sprints at Santa Anita over this distance, and it appears the best horses on paper also get that advantage. *** SCRATCH of Givemethebeatboys took away our only real price for intra-race bets. If playing, look to daily doubles in this spot, heavier BIG EVS to JUST FYI next, and then smaller NO NAY METS & CRIMSON ADVOCATE to JUST FYI next. ***

Race 6 – JUVENILE FILLIES

12-JUST FYI (8-1 ML)

1-CANDIED (4-1 ML)

7-TAMARA (4-5 ML)

3-SCALABLE (20-1 ML)

Haven’t gotten impression heavily favored 7-Tamara has blossomed since dominating Del Mar, but that level may be good enough. Her certain short price makes her have to prove it to me. Pace figures to be strong with some stretch-out sprinters and the Keeneland prep pacemaker leaving from the 13-hole. Visually impressed by 12-Just FYI, 2-for-2 around 1-turn trips that should be shorter than her best and for a slow-developing trainer in Mott. Would like her a whole lot more with a better post. Frizette has been a divisional key historically, along with the Alcibiades, won by 1-Candied. The faster they go, the better for well-drawn exotics bomber 3-Scalable, who was finishing with interest as a maiden in the local prep. She could be the one you need to make the trifecta sing.

Race 7 – JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

12-HARD TO JUSTIFY (6-1 ML)

7-GALA BRAND (12-1 ML)

4-SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1 ML)

6-PORTA FORTUNA (5-1 ML)

The Americans have owned this race historically, winning 8 in a row before a Euro breakthrough last year. Chad Brown’s barn and the Miss Grillo Stakes in New York have been positive forces in the JFT division, so 12-Hard to Justify checks a lot of boxes while also being unbeaten in two starts without any pace help whatsoever in those races. Post 12 is no picnic, so demand at least 4-1 odds. Deep-closing 7-Gala Brand got even less help when fourth in the Miss Grillo and beat the boys at Saratoga (prefer her to 8-Life’s An Audible, second in the Miss Grillo when pace was more friendly to her style). Buzz filly 4-She Feels Pretty is getting all the talk off a rallying 1-turn win in the Natalma at Woodbine. Second turn (and a much shorter stretch run to wire) change the dynamics Friday and project her to be an underlay. Porta Fortuna is a fabulous finisher in sprints, but has raced only on straightaways, much less 2 turns today. Europe’s best. Not a lot of confidence here, but a Brown-Mott exacta on turf paying $100-plus certainly feels Breeders’ Cup-esque.

Race 8 – JUVENILE

10-MUTH (4-1 ML)

9-FIERCENESS (6-1 ML)

6-LOCKED (7-2 ML)

3-WINE ME UP (15-1 ML)

Juvenile morning line favorite 6-Locked is getting credit in a lot of corners for winning at Keeneland despite a wide trip. My concern is that a brilliant juvenile should not be getting hung wide on both turns and that it’s an indictment that he’s a grinder; which also was on display in a long stretch battle. The exact opposite was true on video of Muth when he stretched out in Santa Anita’s prep. The move he made splitting horses and getting himself out of a tight spot just before the quarter-pole was the brilliance you want to see – and then he finished the deal powerfully. Bounce-back candidate Fierceness is way better than a disastrous Champagne showed after a troubled break. I like the way he’s trained on video. Muth is my key play Friday.

Race 9 – JUVENILE TURF

7-AGATE ROAD (8-1 ML)

6-STAY HOT (20-1 ML)

8-UNQUESTIONABLE (4-1 ML)

9-ENDLESSLY (5-1 ML) *new*

The Juvenile Turf historically runs through Europe or New York’s Pilgrim Stakes, the latter providing 3 of the last 7 winners. Domestic hopes may be pinned on Agate Road, who twice in a row looked beaten in upper stretch, only to launch late impressively. *** The SCRATCH of 2-River Tiber *** softens the European hand, though 5-time Juvenile Turf winner Aidan O’Brien, who won this a year ago, still has 8-Unquestionable, coming off a loss, while 7 of the last 8 JT winners exited prep victories. Favorites have lost this race 9 of the last 10 years, so no need to settle, price-wise. O’Brien’s “other” in here, 12-Mountain Bear, won same obscure prep taken by ’15 JT winner Hit It A Bomb for these connections and perhaps shocks the name players. Longshot 6-Stay Hot could get a great trip just off lone speed 5-My Boy Prince and is training gangbusters. 9-Endlessly and 14-Carson’s Run have done nothing wrong and this race quickly adds up to a tough bottom line. With no strong opinion, I’ll tiptoe around the betting and spread in pick fours or fives.

SATURDAY

Race 3 – DIRT MILE

4-ZOZOS (6-1 ML)

9-NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1 ML)

3-CODY’S WISH (9-5 ML)

1-STAGE RAIDER (15-1 ML)

Race feels like trap loaded with potential pitfalls. Simple as 3-Cody’s Wish in a repeat against a field that’s fallen apart with scratches of 2-Practical Move and 7-Algiers? Or simple as potential lone speed 4-Zosos winning again in a race that’s profiled for front-runners historically? What 1-Stage Raider and 9-National Treasure apply in terms of pressure from the inside and outside posts will tell the pace tale. The last 2 outings for Cody’s Wish were not up to his previous par and he’s never been a 2-turn dynamo, best around 1. All out to win this last year with a wicked-fast pace, and that tempo seems highly unlikely Saturday. An exacta without Cody’s Wish (4-9-1) may be a stretch, but also may be the only way to dive in with intra-race enthusiasm. This race won’t be tapping my bankroll; soft opinion and prefer other races.

Race 4 – FILLY & MARE TURF

7-LINDY (12-1 ML)

6-INSPIRAL (5-2 ML)

3-WITH THE MOONLIGHT (20-1 ML)

2-WARM HEART (3-1 ML)

Favorite has lost this race 9 straight years and 15 of the last 16, so no matter how much respect I have for 6-Inspiral, you’re welcome to shop. She’s a brilliant miler trying to stretch a full quarter-mile farther, and that might be enough for another to upend her. Aidan O’Brien finally won the FMT last year after decades of struggle in this division, so you don’t have to assume 2-Warm Heart’s top-class form in August and September has to continue at the tail of her season. 7-Lindy is the upset play and one of my best bets. Loved her turn of foot at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland and expect her to relish the firm going at Santa Anita with her style. Was getting to star Mawj in last effort and her tries vs. Euro beast Blue Rose Cen this year indicate she’s classy enough. Pace should be solid with 1-In Italian stretching out from the rail and 8-Fev Rover needing to be in the mix to be effective. Longshot 3-With the Moonlight could sit a dynamite trip behind that pair, second to both this year, but without the benefit of them matched up and softening one another. All in on Lindy and the exacta with Inspiral, while adding daily doubles to Society next.

Race 5 – FILLY & MARE SPRINT

8-SOCIETY (5-2 ML)

1-GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6-5 ML)

2-CLEARLY UNHINGED (12-1 ML)

5-KIRSTENBOSCH (10-1 ML)

Very similar to the Dirt Mile, the defending champion and heavy favorite again feels vulnerable; this time it’s 1-Goodnight Olive. She hasn’t been as good this year as last and will be a short price in a BC division where repeating victories has been a failed enterprise most often. But the alternative that seems most likely won’t offer a lot of value, the speedy 8-Society. I can’t see anyone else winning and the only play for me is to single 8-Society in multi-race bets and continue rolling daily doubles to Mawj in the next race.

Race 6 – MILE

6-MAWJ (4-1 ML)

11-KELINA (6-1 ML)

14-MASTER OF THE SEAS (7-2 ML)

10-SONGLINE (5-2 ML)

Scratch of 12-Exaulted should leave potential lone speed 6-Mawj even cozier on the front end. The English 1000 Guineas winner is a fantastic miler, won beyond her scope impressively at Keeneland last time and is drawn beautifully to make them come and get her again. Best bet of the Breeders’ Cup for me. Star sophomore fillies like Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl, Six Perfections and Goldikova have succeeded here and European 3-year-olds have won this 3 of the last 5 years. Those same factors apply to French filly 11-Kelina, who upset star UK sprint/miler Kinross last time at Longchamp. 14-Master of the Seas has a danger of a wide trip as a stalking sort, whereas Kelina should drop farther back at the start and save some ground. Tough to know what #10 Songline brings to the party off her Japan form, but as the 5-2 morning line favorite, her neck victory over 3-Casa Creed in Saudi Arabia on neutral ground in 2022 doesn’t feel overwhelming. She may be better now, but I want more price to find out. Without a true longshot to embrace, the trifecta play here is 6-11-All and 6-All-11 and hope for a price … or simply focus on win and exacta only … with a look to daily doubles and mutli-race plays as a single.

Race 7 – DISTAFF

11-LE DA VIDA (20-1 ML)

7-WET PAINT (10-1 ML)

4-IDIOMATIC (5-2 ML)

6-SEARCH RESULTS (5-1 ML)

No race at this year’s Breeders’ Cup projects as a potential pace meltdown more than the Distaff. 4-Idiomatic, 5-Adare Manor, 6-Search Results and 8-Randomized are all drawn in close proximity and exceptionally quick. Add in the blinkered, rail-drawn 1-Hoosier Philly and there’s more to the tempo. Finding the right finisher appears to be everything in this race. Late-running 9-Clairiere’s last was too poor to forgive and you never feel confident a veteran mare will bounce back after non-efforts (especially taking a short-ish price). Meanwhile, 11-Le Da Vida had no chance when runner-up to Idiomatic in the Spinster, a historically strong prep in this division. But she came out of that race with a bullet workout and comes west for the same barn that rallied from 10th to win Santa Anita’s Distaff in 2019 with Blue Prize, another 6-year-old veteran coming out of the Spinster. 7-Wet Paint hasn’t run particularly fast, but her consistency and style suit. Let’s blow it up with Le Da Vida, maybe try to get two closers into the exacta, and also look to daily doubles to the Turf.

Race 8 – TURF

9-MOSTAHDAF (5-2 ML)

5-AUGUSTE RODIN (3-1 ML)

11-KING OF STEEL (4-1 ML)

1-SHAHRYAR (15-1 ML)

It’s been since 2003 that an American 4-year-old or younger won the Turf, and there’s no form or pedigree to suggest 8-Up to the Mark, as brilliant as he’s been this year (and he has been brilliant), will excel over the mile and one-half. It’s a tall order most years, regardless, but these foreign raiders include winners of this year’s Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion, Price of Wales’s, Juddmonte International and British Champions, all elite Group 1 races. Add in a Japanese Derby winner and a past Dubai Sheema Classic champ. The international quartet tabbed above has made only 16 starts combined this year, likely having plenty in the tank and not over the top like some past BC Turf raiders with impressive resumes. Follow the tote for win value and use this group in multi-race bets with little separating them.

Race 9 – CLASSIC

6-SAUDI CROWN (12-1 ML)

12-ARABIAN KNIGHT (3-1 ML)

8-USHBA TESORO (4-1 ML)

2-ZANDON (12-1 ML)

In a Classic that has failed to focus in my mind, I’ll rely on the projected pace players, 6-Saudi Crown and 12-Arabian Knight, both of whom have been working tremendously on video for the top dirt barns in America, Cox and Baffert. Trust runs shallow for alternatives beyond Japan’s 8-Ushba Tesoro, and even his stellar record leaves me with as many questions as answers at what will be a smallish price. Unless Florent Geroux and Flavien Prat get into an unnecessary tussle up front, or the other Japanese runner 5-Derma Sotogake is fired up into the early fray like he did in Dubai, then American dirt speed for top barns ought to rule the day. Respect the form of 2-Zandon, 3-White Abarrio and 13-Proxy, but they’re 0-6 combined over 10 furlongs and feel more like superfecta players. If they don’t finish with flair, they can’t catch what’s in front of them. Don’t expect to see 12-1 on Saudi Crown, but fair odds would be around 5-1, same goes for Arabian Knight. I’ll try to get to the Classic in multi-race bets and rely on those two.

Race 10 – TURF SPRINT

4-TONY ANN (15-1 ML)

10-MOTORIOUS (5-1 ML)

5-LIVE IN THE DREAM (9-2 ML)

1-BIG INVASION (15-1 ML)

California trainers have dominated the Turf Sprint when Santa Anita hosts the event and Phil D’Amato is the only locally based barn here, sending out filly Tony Ann and gelding Motorious. Post draw stellar for Tony Ann, she just beat the TS defending champ 3-Caravel on the square at Keeneland and will be a much better price of the two. She’ll also be a better price than Motorious, though a lot of respect here – just wish a better post position for him. 5-Live In The Dream is fast and will be a danger if he outbreaks Caravel just to his inside. Joel Rosario riding a talented turf sprint closer like 1-Big Invasion is a script we’ve seen win many important grass dashes. Key the D’Amato pair on top and weave in 1-Big Invasion as the exotics price booster underneath, as well as nice-priced Clement stablemate 9-Roses for Debra (12-1 ML).

Race 11 – SPRINT

6-THE CHOSEN VRON (5-1 ML)

7-SPEED BOAT BEACH (3-1 ML)

8-ELITE POWER (9-5 ML)

2-DR. SCHIVEL (5-1 ML)

Five of nine entrants here would not surprise me in the least bit to win, but you have to respect defending champ 8-Elite Power, winner in 8 of his last 9. His rivalry with 9-Gunite sees a fourth head-to-head in 2023 and there’s no clear-cut edge. That said, Sprint favorites have been crash-and-burn of late, 5 of the last 6 out of the exacta at 8-5 or less odds. Californians haven’t been as dominant as they once were in the Sprint, but Dr. Schivel and Speed Boat Beach head-bobbed in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in a salty 1:08-2/5, while Cal-bred win machine The Chosen Vron has won 8 in a row and beat Dr. Schivel on the wire in Del Mar’s Bing Crosby. Speed Boat Beach has been drawing rave workout reviews. Spread in the multi-race bets and try to find the value play among this quintet as post time approaches; I’m assuming The Chosen Vron will be the most appealing price.