Travers Morning Final Thoughts + National Stakes Picks
I see very little separation among 4, maybe even 5, contenders in today’s Travers at Saratoga. I’ve studied these 3-year-olds since the first Friday in January in Countdown to the Crown. Here’s how I see the Midsummer Derby’s 5 top hopefuls in true Countdown order.
3-Unmatched Wisdom: New face to scene has won all 3, improving and you get Chad & Irad, which would make 10-1 attractive…but can’t take a single-digit price.
8-Fierceness: His best wins this at 1-1/8 miles, but 10F is question after modest come-home in Jim Dandy and he just hasn’t paired up big efforts. Wins or up the track.
7-Dornoch: Trustworthy only if he puts his head in front in the upper stretch. He’ll battle his butt off if he does. But feeling is he may not get to that juncture the way this shapes up, and then he becomes a likely underlay. Right trip and he’s tough, though.
1-Thorpedo Anna: Training better than any of these and that :46 - 1:10 tempo of the Acorn at Saratoga is the race that she’ll have to run to win (plus get another 220 yards) … which she just might. 5-pound weight break helps. Threat.
2-Sierra Leone: Failed at 8-5 and 4-5 in his last 2, but absolutely gets the pace set-up and this has been his destination since the moment the Triple Crown ended. Reliable form, never misfires and Prat is out of his mind with 12 stakes wins at the meet, collaring Idiomatic yesterday in final jumps to win the Personal Ensign. May look similar here. Top pick, but demand no less than 3-1 for win bet.
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Top Spa undercard plays:
Race 10 (2-Chi Town Lady longshot special)
Race 12 (1-World Order)
National Stakes Outlook: 17 Saturday Stakes in 17 Sentences
1. Parx 3, 1:40 pm ET | Rail-drawn 1-Buccherino has been facing tougher than he’ll face in the Salvatore Debunda Sprint and has the home-court edge on unbeaten likely chalk 6-Sunny Breeze.
2. Parx 4, 2:10 pm ET | While 7-Grooms All Bizness has won 4 of his last 5, it’s local Turf Monster winner 5-That’s Right to beat in the Parx Dash under turf sprint ace rider Paco Lopez.
3. Parx 6, 3:15 pm ET | 4-Tuskegee Airmen looked like a future star in 2022 at 2 and respected Parx trainer John Servis goes old school – sprint-to-route while second off the layoff – in the Mayor’s Mile.
4. Saratoga 9, 3:44 pm ET | It’s literally a Charlie Appleby coin-flip in the Sword Dancer, where the 12-furlong trip may suit 4-Silver Knott over stablemate 2-Measured Time.
5. Parx 7, 3:45 pm ET | 5-Recruiter was eye-catching early in his career and his allowance win recently at Monmouth looks like he’s back on the beam for a stakes re-rise into the State Representative’s Sprint.
6. Timonium 8, 4:02 pm ET | The 6-furlong oval at the Maryland State Fair was a haven last year for jockey Xavier Perez (2-Yesternight), while big respect for the bullring Charles Town Oaks effort last year from 8-Late Frost takes top choice in the Shine Again.
7. Parx 8, 4:15 pm ET | 6-Impel and 1-Gun Song have faced tougher, but the Cathryn Sophia is a prep for the Grade 1 Cotillion and 7-Just Be Quiet will offer value in a race that looks like a destination for her and not a tune-up.
8. Saratoga 10, 4:20 pm ET | The Ballerina could incinerate with need-the-lead 4-Society and 8-Munny’s Gold dueling, setting the table for my longshot best bet of the day 2-Chi Town Lady, who boasts ridiculous BRIS late pace figures and won last year's Test at a price (pictured above).
9. Monmouth 9, 4:37 pm ET | Juveniles stretching out for the first time are about projection, and Monmouth’s 1-mile Sorority may better-suit the pedigree and style of 1-Vino Limone than likely heavy favorite 7-Social Fortress, whose mama sprinted.
10. Parx 9, 4:45 pm ET | The Smarty Jones Is the local Pennsylvania Derby prep, where 3-Gould’s Gold should secure a comfy trip near a very modest pace and get the jump on 4-Uncle Heavy, 1-Mugatu et al.
11. Saratoga 11, 4:55 pm ET | The Forego pace looks manageable for a 7-furlong Grade 1, which is good news for red-hot 6-Mullikin to notch his fourth straight win.
12. Saratoga 12, 5:30 pm ET | So many good options in the 7-furlong Jerkens Memorial, but medium-priced 1-World Record removes a lot of the variables with rail speed and a fantastic win sprinting over the track since adding blinkers.
13. Saratoga 13, 6:10 pm ET | Absolutely no confidence in the Travers, where 5 of the 8 are win contenders (all but 4,5,6) so I’d only get involved in the win pool if an outlier price looked too juicy to pass on a key contender.
14. Gulfstream 10, 6:33 pm ET | 6-Comedy Town beat better in the Smile Sprint last out and should make it 3 in a row in the Benny the Bull over a furlong farther, given his new-found ability to stalk.
15. Del Mar 9, 9:00 pm ET | The Pat O'Brien figures to be an encore for the unstoppable 6-The Chosen Vron, who was as good as he's ever looked in winning last month's Bing Crosby.
16. Prairie Meadows 9, 10:26 pm ET | 7-Long Neck Paula and 5-Aoraki exit Saratoga’s Schuylerville for A-list trainers Wesley Ward and Steve Asmussen, while the early foot of the latter should play stronger in the Prairie Meadows Freshman over a speed-friendly track.
17. FD Racing 6, 10:50 pm ET | 2-EJ Won the Cup should absolutely outclass the St. Louis Derby competition and the 2-1 morning line projection would be a late-night snack.