Thursday Keeneland Picks, Stats & Trends from Jeremy
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 19, 2023
What to Watch for Today: Claiming Crown Rapid Transit winner The Queens Jules leads a strong blue collar cast in Race 6, while the Keeneland Turf Pick Three returns to the menu and will be on Races 5,7,9. Congratulations are in order to jockey Corey Lanerie, who piloted his 5,000th career winner on Wednesday’s local card, scoring in Race 3 aboard I Feel the Need.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cloudy skies and comfortable temps in the mid-60s are forecasted.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Dual-condition claimers start the Thursday early pick five at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others. The CD set doesn’t look appealing here, so Indy’s Healing Waters makes sense. The 3YO What’s Up Bro is a 3-time winner eligible for this dual-condition – he’s got 2 NYRA wins, but the last at Thistledown might not draw the class comparisons his form otherwise would.
2nd Race
High-end maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs to star the early pick four. Favorites are 1-9 in MCL races so far this Fall Meet, but 8 winners have been 7-1 or less and very good betting races. Churchill preppers have 4 of the wins and first-timers have been shut out. Ellis Park has a pair of victories. Speed has not held as well as past meets in these MCL sprints with the average winner more than 3 lengths back after the opening half-mile – more than 2 lengths farther back than MCL sprint par over the years. Closers via Churchill may be the play, considering the likes of Backwoods Barbie, Controlled Temper and Corkage Fee. Beyond the trends, though, rookies here look formidable like Shespun, Adeleke and Ocean Bird, so this is a total head-scratcher for me. Get a price no matter what you do.
3rd Race
Starter allowance runners clash at 6-1/2 furlongs. We’ve had 51 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets and the average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-51. But note 44 of 51 winners were 8-1 or less, including all 4 this meet between 3-1 and 5-1. These have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill preppers own 20 of the wins, far outgunning Horseshoe Indianapolis next with 5. The 4 races this Fall Meet have been spread out, however. This race has a lot of pace to it, so I’m looking for finishers like Stormy Empire and Story Hour to come knocking late. Trainer Robert Falcone has 2 wins at the meet on dirt and both with Luis Saez; they team again with Girl Afraid.
4th Race
Mid-level $32,000 claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to open the pick six. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). Early speed has been effective in all 4 claiming dirt routes so far. There’s a lot of early speed to the outside of this field in Sugoi, Heartbreaker (by strong Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed) and Expensive Cut. Bird King is a local winner, but note that came in the 6YOs career debut during the 2019 Fall Meet. Heartbreaker won here in April over 6 furlongs and stretches out to the longest race of his career. The hot pace and distance here could make He’s Got This effective after a trio of 1-1/8 miles races on the slight cut-back for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 wins at the meet on dirt.
5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick five also will kick off the Keeneland Turf Pick Three with a 2-year-old turf sprint maiden special weight. Don’t be afraid of a price here as the average winner in 2YO turf MSW races at Kee in Fall Meets is over 9-1 odds. Experienced horses win at nearly a 5-to-1 edge over rookies, so lean to those with some running lines to evaluate. We’ve only 4 in turf sprints, however, all 4 won by horses within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Sire Into Mischief has 2 of those winners and offers Into Stars from an advantageous post. Remember posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge here at big prices in full-field turf sprints at any class level. The 2 such races so far this meet were won by posts 4 and 5 at 4-1 and 11-1, respectively. Kentucky Downs preppers hold a 19-13 edge over CD in Fall 2YO turf MSWs. Trainer Ian Wilkes’ 5 wins in these races are tied for most and he has CD prepped Save the Mischief. Mike Maker also has 5 such wins and sends out Dr. Ray D. via KD.
6th Race
Upper-end $50,000 claimers sprint 7 furlongs to start the late pick four. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). We’ve had 16 Fall Meet open claiming races for $50,000 level or higher with 6 winning favorites and 15 of 16 winners at 8-1 or less. Mike Maker’s 3 wins in these events are most of any trainer and he’ll have Upstrike, a horse claimed 5 times in 2023 alone. Derby Date’s local victory came here sprinting 6F in Spring 2021 in a MSW. Lucky Boss won here in Fall 2022 over 7F, the same meet in which The Queens Jewels won a 6F sprint.
7th Race
Entry-level (N1X) allowance runners meet at 1-1/16 miles on grass for the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Turf allowance races have been total chalk this meet so far with 7 of 10 favorites winning and not a single payoff above 4-1 odds. The average winner in 1-1/16 miles turf races this meet so far has been 5 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, playing heavily toward late runners. Five winners hailed from Kentucky Downs preps, no other circuit more than 1 winner so far. The KD set here is Mednel’s Secret (trainer Mike Maker has second-most Kee turf ALW wins in Fall Meets) and American Diamond. Trainer Graham Motion has the most Kee fall turf ALW wins and counters with Sir London. Trainer Ian Wilkes had 3 winners last week and sends out Mackillop.
8th Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt in this one. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for Princely and Winnemac Avenue. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is Funny Uncle’s open maiden special weight at Oaklawn.
9th Race
The finale wraps the Keeneland Turf Pick Three and is a split division of Race 5’s 2-year-old turf sprint maiden special weight. Don’t be afraid of a price here as the average winner in 2YO turf MSW races at Kee in Fall Meets is over 9-1 odds. Experienced horses win at nearly a 5-to-1 edge over rookies, so lean to those with some running lines to evaluate. We’ve only 4 in turf sprints, however, all 4 won by horses within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Remember posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge here at big prices in full-field turf sprints at any class level. The 2 such races so far this meet were won by posts 4 and 5 at 4-1 and 11-1, respectively. Posts 3-4 are occupied by experienced runners here in Satin Blue and Wonder Wave. Kentucky Downs preppers hold a 19-13 edge over CD in Fall 2YO turf MSWs. Trainer Ian Wilkes’ 5 wins in these races are tied for most and he has KD prepped Charm of the Song. Mike Maker also has 5 such wins and sends out Joke Master via KD.