Thursday Keeneland Picks from JP + Stats & Trends Full-Card

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Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 12, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Speed dominated on the dirt Wednesday at Keeneland for the first time at the young Fall Meet and we’ll see if the front-runners continue their flair.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,7,9 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Excellent conditions are forecasted with mostly sunny skies and temps climbing back to around 80 degrees.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Starter allowance sprinters open the early pick five at 6 furlongs. We’ve had 48 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets with 20 winners via Churchill Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis far back next with 5. The average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-48. But note 41 of 48 winners were 8-1 or less, so these have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill runners here include Gold Luck, Kattath, Chance and Attache. Of those, Kattath may have the best early foot and be in the best position to take advantage at a class/distance heavily favoring speed.

2nd Race

Maiden claimers dash 6 furlongs to kick off the early pick 5. The average winner of more than 70 such races at this class/distance in past Fall Meets on dirt is less than a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. Two-thirds of winners are coming out of races at 6 furlongs or shorter, while experienced horses have an edge by more than a 6-to-1 margin. Churchill preppers have 27 wins, no other circuit more than 6. Pass Line is the only CD runner here. Nearly a quarter of these races have produced $20+ winners, so don’t be afraid to take a chance. I’m against the profile for sure with the late-running longshot Fujin, whose dirt form is clouded by poor turf efforts. Tough race with lower confidence and reason to spread.

3rd Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers match up at the about 7 furlong distance. Winners in these races are evenly split among horses who ran shorter or longer last time, and even among various prep circuits. Surface changes haven’t been a hindrance. For me, N2L claimers come down to the horse with the best maiden win since they all have but one career victory. That’s cleary Beaux Artes in this race, a maiden special weight victor at Fair Grounds. She also has a nice fourth in MSW company here in Spring 2022 showing she can handle the local dirt. Pedigree plays could be interested in Royal Laughter by sharp Kee dirt sire Cairo Prince, who happened to add a turf maiden winner here Wednesday named Cairo Street.

4th Race

Maiden special weight 2-year-olds sprint 7 furlongs in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44% and all 7 winners so far this meet were between 3-1 and 6-1 odds. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue, but the first-time starters won 4 offerings opening week. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior. CD reps here Promisemeanempire, Chicquita Reina, Accommodate Eva and Mysidehustle are in the main body of the field. I give that group the edge here at 7F.

5th Race

The pick 6 and Keeneland Turf Pick Three open with a turf mile maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW turf routes is to be on longshot alert. The average winner is 9.5-1 odds from nearly 70 such races in the database with as many winners 10-1 or more as winning favorites – including both such races on Wednesday’s card. Only about half the winners prepped at a route distance, so don’t be afraid of a stretch-out in trip; note two-thirds of the winners did prep on turf. Winners are really spread evenly with an ever-slight edge to Kentucky Downs preppers over first-time starters, Churchill and NYRA preppers all nearly identical. Half the 12 main body runners here are via KD, so there are options among those runners alone. For a price player watch KD prepper Gamblin George, whose sire Noble Mission has had a lot of success on the local lawn. Saratoga debut runner Zeverev comes out of a debut race against eventual Pilgrim Stakes winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf prospect Agate Road – and this one looks promising on paper.

6th Race

Dual-condition claimers spring 7 furlongs to start the late pick 5. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more … though 15-1 Navy Soul popped here Sunday in a similar spot, while odds-on favorite Sicilian Grandma scored as chalk in Wednesday’s opener. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others and included Sunday’s winner from Indy. Stonevicious, Treaty, Carmichael and Rungius are the CD preppers to follow here, with the last of those the one I like best in a race loaded with early speed – look for him to move late.

7th Race

The late pick 4 opener is a split division of Race 5, a turf mile maiden special weight for 2-year-olds, and it’s also middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW turf routes is to be on longshot alert. The average winner is 9.5-1 odds from nearly 70 such races in the database with as many winners 10-1 or more as winning favorites – including both such races on Wednesday’s card. Only about half the winners prepped at a route distance, so don’t be afraid of a stretch-out in trip; note two-thirds of the winners did prep on turf. Winners are really spread evenly with an ever-slight edge to Kentucky Downs preppers over first-time starters, Churchill and NYRA preppers all nearly identical. Seven of these come via KD, including Tireless for a Todd Pletcher barn already with three 2YO winners at the meet. Sire Not This Time had 2 winners on the Kee turf opening weekend and adds to Tireless’ case. Frontline Warrior is another KD runner to consider at a better price and is by sharp Kee turf sire War Front.

8th Race

Second-level (N2X) allowance sprinters dash 6 furlongs in the co-feature. The average Fall Meet 6F ALW race is won by horses just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile. Churchill preppers have a 15-7 edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) in these 38 such past offerings. The obvious favorites will come from NYRA in Little Prankster and Aunt Becca, both with plenty of early speed and fantastic form. Aunt Becca’s 6F win here in the ’23 Spring ranked as the fastest time of the entire meet. CD reps will be hard-pressed to upend that pair on paper, led by Miss Arlington, Magical Lute and Filly Crystal.

9th Race

The Keeneland Turf Pick Three wraps in this 1-1/16 miles first-level (N1X) allowance on grass. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf route allowance races is for favorites to underperform (just 27%) with an average winner at 6-1 odds. These races about 40% of their winners come evenly split via Kentucky Downs and New York (Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) with a big gap back to Churchill Downs next-best. Opening week’s pair of such offerings were split between KD and Sar preppers. The KD scene here includes Mr McGregor, Baseline Beater, Gatlingburg and King Curlin. The average winner of these races is nearly 4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 17% of winners leading that that point.

10th Race

The finale is a maiden claiming sprint at 6 furlongs on dirt. It’s our first MCL sprint of the current meet and favorites historically just slightly underperform in these at 33% with an average winner more than 5.5-to-1 odds. The average winner at this class and distance is less than a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. Experienced horses outshine the rookies by about a 7-to-1 margin in number of victories. About two-thirds of winners at this class/distance ran 6 furlongs or shorter last time out. St. Benedicts Prep, the morning line favorite, goes for a renowned Chad Brown barn not known for running maiden claimers at Keeneland. In fact, he’s not won one and only run a pair of them during the 2020 Fall Meet. If you go the first-time starter route, trainer Eddie Kenneally (Oh My Gawd) is one of the top MCL trainers at Kee with 18 such wins (only Brad Cox has more with 19), but only one of those came with a debut runner.