Sunday Keeneland Picks, Stats & Trends from Jeremy
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 22, 2023
What to Watch for Today: Filly and mare turf marathoners are center stage in Race 7, the Grade 3 $300,000 Dowager Stakes. Among the stars are Kentucky Downs’ Ladies Marathon winner Vergara. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 5,7,9.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies with a forecasted high of 62 degrees is in the forecast.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
Race 1
Maiden claiming 2-year-olds open the pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. These races are historically very formful with favorites winning more than 42% over the years on dirt. Experienced runners own 26 of the 30 wins. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, as well as 14 of the 30 2YO MCL dirt routes in the database, so give extra looks to Title Contender, This Time Blue and Tis Charming. Brad Cox (5) and Kenny McPeek (4) have the most 2YO MCL dirt route wins at Kee and are repped here by two each – Title Contender & Town Hall as well as Footprint & Tis Charming, respectively.
Race 2
Elder maiden special weight runners route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. In 21 prior elder MSW routes on dirt in Fall Meets, Churchill preppers have 11 wins. Sassy Walker, Collette’s Joy, Perceptive and Misintention rep CD here. All 21 winners were 8-1 or less odds with an average winner at 7-2, so don’t expect a major upset. Turf-to-dirt moves have had some success with 6 victories of the 21 like Collette’s Joy and Sassy Walker attempt, though Sassy Walker tries to buck the trend of stretch-out sprinters winning these races (only 3 of 21 went to such moves). Stagflation runs back second time at the meet on a 14-day layoff; note a similar race to this was won in 2020 off a 10-day Fall Meet run-back.
Race 3
Upper-level $50,000 open claimers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Favorites are 11-23 in claiming races at the current meet (16-23 in the exacta) after Saturday’s opener. We’ve had 18 such dirt claimers for $50K or higher in open conditions in Fall Meets with very few discernible trends appearing. The other unique twist here is the 1-1/8 miles distance.There’s only been 1 claimer above open $20K level on the dirt in Fall Meets at this trip. At any claiming level, there have been 23 such 9F dirt races in Fall Meets and only 4 winners closed from more than 5 lengths back at the half-mile point to win. A slower pace usually means horses up front have a better shot. Use more traditional handicapping here as Ethical Judgement is a course winner and runs to good local pedigree, drops in class and has top rider Tyler Gaffalione as a very logical player. Devil Vision won at this class level in Fall 2022 and certainly fits as well.
Race 4
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to My Best Day Ever, Soulful Tara, Chanel Point and Mrs. Speaker.
Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed. Teshima made the lead here sprinting against slightly tougher when a good third in the Spring Meet. She should contend for the front along with My Best Day Ever, a daughter of Liam’s Map, who has sired a couple of maiden dirt winners at the current meet.
Race 5
Turf sprint allowance runners kick off today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 in what is also the swing race in the early and late pick 5. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Querobin Dourada as the only KD prepper. She’s also a deep closer in a race loaded with speed and a race that’s profiling to late runs at the meet. I love this play. Top Gun Girl must be respected for Wesley Ward, a winner of 46 Kee turf sprints in our database (no other trainer more than 8). Goin’ Good is stakes-placed here as a turf sprinter in the ’22 Spring Giant’s Causeway, a race Querobin Dourada was runner-up in this past Spring Meet. Lady Goldstart pairs with top Kee turf sprint jockey Joel Rosario, a rider whose late style should suit this race shape.
Race 6
The late pick 4 starts with an entry-level (N1X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. We’ve had 15 allowance races on dirt this current Fall Meet with Saratoga and Churchill preppers each winning 5. Favorites have 6 wins with average win odds at 9-2. That’s right about where you would expect. Among the 6 such route races, only 1 real closer has scored with an average winner 1-1/2 lengths back after the first half-mile. Chad Brown has a pair of dirt ALW wins so far this meet and can add a third with Leading Contender. Note that runner’s runner-up last time came against Film Star, a next-out ALW winner who would then run second in the Woodward Stakes. Todd Pletcher won a similar race to this earlier in the meet with Courbe and takes two shots here with Grand Aspen and Black Rain, the latter most appealing to my eye.
Race 7
The featured Dowager Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf is middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. There are 17 editions of the Dowager in our database with 16 of the 17 winners formful at 8-1 or less, including 9-17 favorites. Closers are strong here historically with an average winner 5 lengths back after the first half-mile and only 2 winners coming on the front end. Look for horses who prepped at 1-1/4 miles or longer as they account for 12 of the 17 winners. Kentucky Downs (4) and Saratoga (4) have split the winners, but combined account for just over half of the scores). Trainer Graham Motion won this race in 2015 and 2020 and sends out both Vergara and Romagna Mia. I love to pedigree shop stamina in these 12F turf routes, so Vergara (by strong Kee turf sire Noble Mission), Be Up (a grandson of Kee turf marathon ace producer Dynaformer), Romagna Mia (by Mastercraftsman) and Transient (by Sea the Stars) all bring appeal. Note Lovely Princess scratched from Saturday’s Race 8 allowance to run in this spot.
Race 8
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters dash 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are 5-12 at the current meet after the chalk won Saturday (only 1 winner has topped 6-1 odds). Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 3 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Saturday’s 2YO MSW win on dirt by Brad Cox was his third of meet, leading all trainers (Wesley Ward has 2). Cox tries for a fourth with Ethan Energy, a first-timer. Among experienced foes, Agoo was a debut runner-up at Churchill to Stretch Ride, who already returned at this Kee meet for Dale Romans to win in allowance company. Steve Asmussen already had a big-time MSW debut winner this meet named Booth and could have a good one in Skelly Road. If Armando Hernandez, who has popped 3 winners at the meet ala superman from Illnois, gets King Anthony in from the also-eligible list, you have to consider.
Race 9
The finale is a turf sprint allowance and wraps up the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Proud Mary, Jennifer My Love and Dulcia. Wesley Ward is bound to bust out in these turf sprints soon enough with his record 46 such wins at Kee (no other trainer more than 8). He’s got Hurricane Debbie. Power posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge at strong prices in these full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, so Queen of the Mud, Corner Kick and Just a Care are drawn beautifully, barring scratches. Just A Care’s trainer Rusty Arnold is the track’s top turf sprint conditioner not named Ward.