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Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 7, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Saturday is the biggest day of the meeting with an 11-race card that features the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile, Grade 1 First Lady and Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity among 5 stakes. Keeneland joins Santa Anita for a special $1 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 matching the Thoroughbred Club of America (KEE); Turf Mile (KEE); Breeders' Futurity (KEE); American Pharoah Stakes (SAP); Chandelier Stakes (SAP) and the Rodeo Drive Stakes (SAP).

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 6,8,10 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez notched 3 wins opening day.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies are in the forecast while temperatures will fight to get into the low 60s with an overnight low in the upper 30s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

Race 1

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claiming sprinters on dirt open the afternoon and the early pick five. Horses from Churchill Downs have easily fared best in these N2L claimers in Fall Meets, but also keep tabs on the Horseshoe Indianapolis crowd, whose noticeable impact here also includes an average 10-1 price. That’s giving me hope for Penny’s Prospect at what should be a big price when you have A La Carte making a big and suspicious class drop from Saratoga for Bill Mott (who rarely runs a claimer here), as well as Master of Arms coming off a long layoff since March.

Race 2

Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the early pick four kickoff. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior (like Toolpusher and Surf City here). Gallant Mischief is training strongly for Mark Casse and could attract a lot of attention. Sire Into Mischief is responsible for more Kee dirt winners than any other sire since the ’14 surface change. Linzer doesn’t fit the trends, per se, but his debut second to Nutella Fella looked even better when that one upset the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga next time out.

Race 3

Elder maiden special weight sprinters extend to 7 furlongs in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet elder MSW dirt races lean extremely hard to experienced horses. Only about 6% have been won by first-time starters. Devil Blue Dress is working like she’s going to get bet hard for Dale Romans and is another Into Mischief with pedigree to play locally. Churchill preppers far and away have been most successful, which serves Three Polks (by sharp Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed) and Dream On Stormy well here. Horses with tactical early speed have been most effective in the 7-furlong offerings at this level.

Race 4

Second-level (N2X) allowance turf routers match up over 1-1/16 miles. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf route allowance races is for favorites to underperform (just 27%) with an average winner at 6-1 odds. These races about 40% of their winners come evenly split via Kentucky Downs and New York (Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) with a big gap back to Churchill Downs next-best. The average winner of these races is nearly 4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 17% of winners leading that that point. No trainer has won more Fall Meet turf ALW routes here since 2006 than Graham Motion’s 25 (Willakia). Willakia, Saffron Moon and Quality Star all are local course winners in a field where the bulk have never attempted the Kee lawn.

Race 5

The pick 6 will open here in an entry-level (N1X) allowance dirt sprint at 6 furlongs. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. But horses like Stormquist and Normandy Hero via CD don’t appear to have any real edges on paper. Early speed is much more effective here at 6F. The average winner is only a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile at 6F, compared to 2 lengths back in the 7F affairs, a noticeable difference. Valentine Candy wired his debut at Saratoga before pressing the G1 Hopeful pace and should be forward. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4 previous Fall Meet 2YO ALW wins are second-most to Brad Cox’s 6, who sends out Alder in this spot. Both barns are around 30% in these kind of spots at Kee.

Race 6

An all-stakes pick 5 begins here as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three with the Woodford Stakes for grass sprinters. Favorites have won this race the last 3 years and 6 of the last 9. In the last 14 years, only 2 winners have been above 7-1 odds. While Golden Pal was good enough to wire this race the past 2 years, note the average winner the past 17 years has been 2-3/4 lengths behind after the first half-mile. There’s been no superior prep path with 13 different venues producing the last 17 winners. Trainer Wesley Ward has won this race 3 times since 2014 and sends out Eye Witness and Kaufymaker, the latter a local allowance winner at this trip during the ’22 Fall Meet. Note Ward’s 46 such wins here in the database dwarf everyone else (Todd Pletcher 8, Rusty Arnold 7 are a distant next-best). Joel Rosario is Kee’s top turf sprint jockey and partners with Arzak. Posts 3-4-5 account for 4 of the 6 wins in the Woodford when boasting a field of 12 in our database.

Race 7

The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 begins in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, as well as an all-stakes pick four. Horses cutting back from routes or moving turf to dirt haven’t had much success in this race, so emphasize the dirt sprint form of Wicked Halo, Fire on Time and Yuugiri, all coming out of the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, the TCA has only been won twice by horses more than 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, so tilt toward speed. Fire On Time might be quickest of the group again and has a chance to wire the field. Wicked Halo won the Raven Run Stakes here last Fall at 7F, while Yuugiri struggled locally in the Madison here in April. Fire O Time beat lesser foes in her only try here in Spring ’22. Six of the last 7 TCA winners were 9-2 or less odds.

Race 8

The late pick four begins and we hit the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three in the First Lady Stakes. Seven straight favorites have been beaten in this race and in our 17-year database, only 3 chalks have been successful. But note 15 of 17 winners were 9-2 or less, which makes this a great betting race. Trainer Chad Brown has won the last 5 editions and has them surrounded with defending champ In Italian, her Diana conqueror Whitebeam and the Beverly D runner-up Gina Romantica, winner of last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over this course. Saratoga preppers have won this race the last 5 years and 8 of the last 9, so tab Whitebeam and In Italian’s rematch as the race within the race. Jockey Joel Rosario has won the First Lady 3 of the last 4 years and returns aboard In Italian. Whitebeam has never run at Keeneland on grass, but her sire Caravaggio has fabulous numbers here with 3 winners from only 6 starters.

Race 9

Next up is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, which has been run 9 times since the return to dirt in Fall 2014. Only 1 of 9 winners led after the first half-mile and we’ve seen the average winner rally from 3-1/2 lengths off the lead at that juncture, quite a closer’s profile. Horses prepped at 7 furlongs or longer account for 7 of the 9 wins, while Saratoga and Churchill have split dominance with 4 wins each as final prep locales. Awesome Road will vie for favoritism, but ran just 6 furlongs in his impressive debut win. Perhaps he’ll be vulnerable to more experienced closers. Generous Tipper intrigues off the pace for a Kenny McPeek barn that won this race 2 years ago with Rattle N Roll. Todd Pletcher looks for back-to-back wins here after Forte’s ’22 score when he sends out sharp Saratoga mile winner Locked. Pletcher also won this in 2014 with Carpe Diem.

Race 10

The featured $1 million Keeneland Turf Mile wraps the all-stakes pick 4, pick 5 and Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Favorites have lost this race the last 8 years and 9 of the last 10. The last 7 winners were 6-1 or more and we’ve averaged 12-1 in this race the past 7 years. Speed has struggled with just two half-mile leaders holding on in the 17-year database (average winner 3 lengths back at that point). Note 12 of 17 winners cut back in distance some from their most recent start. The profile would be to find a nice-priced closer who ran longer than a mile last out. Set Piece, the Arlington Million winner, should fit that bill. Expect the public to go all in on Master of the Seas, defending Turf Mile winner Annapolis and his Pletcher stablemate Up to the Mark. The latter is trying to come off a June layoff, but note the last 13 winners of this stakes had raced in August or September prior.

Race 11

Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the finale, a split division of Race 2. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. This race is almost exclusively first-timers. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior, such as Miyagi for Wayne Catalano. He’s by Not This Time, a strong local dirt sire to boot, as is fellow rookie Who’s the King. First-timer Nash is a Godolphin blueblood for Brad Cox you have to consider, by Medgalia d’Oro out of the sharp win-early and sprint mare Sara Louise.