Plonk's Updated Keeneland Friday Picks After Scratches
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 12, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas highlights the Spring Meet’s top turf race, the Grade 1 $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile. Star international jockeys William Buick and Frankie Dettori are among the human attractions on a card that also includes the Limehouse Turf Sprint. The international intrigue continues with Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary winner Crimson Advocate scheduled to make her sophomore return in the Limestone Stakes.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is scheduled for Races 5,7,9.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Rain is in the forecast throughout the week so keep an eye on updated conditions and be flexible. Given the importance of the Maker’s Mark Mile, you’d assume every chance will be given to get this race on the lawn.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Lower-end claiming sprinters clash at 6 furlongs to open the early pick 5. Favorite are a strong 27-60 in 6F claiming races in Spring Meets, 7-11 when offered for this $16K or less price tag (average winner in those 11 just 2-1 odds). Early speed also dominates these races at the price and distance with an average winner nearly 1 full length in front after the opening half-mile, as big of a speed push as you’ll see at Keeneland. Tilted Towers looks formidable on the big class drop and was within a head of the lead in his prior Keeneland start vs. tougher in Spring ’23. All 11 winners exited sprints, something Deb’s Gunfighter and Land Mark Deal have to buck. Fair Grounds preppers own a 12-8 edge at this class level in Spring Meets over any distance, and while none of these come straight via FG, Tilted Towers wintered and raced there before getting an interim race in at Hawthorne.
2nd Race
Maiden claimers match up at 7 furlongs on dirt in the early pick 4 kickoff. We’ve had 25 of these 7F MCL in Spring Meets and more than one-third of them have been won by horses 10-1 or more odds (8 of 25, matching the success of favorites). First-time starters account for only 4 of the 25 wins, so Wesley Ward’s Modern Day Warrior should be well bet while trying to swim against that trend. Ten winners made surface changes from turf or synthetic, while 10 also cut back in distance from a mile or farther. This is one of the better spots for a turnback in distance at Keeneland. Only 3 of 25 led after a half-mile, but 21 of 25 winners were within 3 lengths of the lead at that point. So your cut-back runner should be one with some early ability. High Alert and Elm Street shorten from routes at Turfway. High Alert is by Connect, a sire whose runners were a sharp 5-19 on the Kee dirt last year and could be a price player.
3rd Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance routers extend the trip to 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Trainer Dale Romans has 6 wins at Kee over 9F on dirt, tied for 4th-best of any barn. He’ll send out Cyclone Mischief, a dominant winner over this track in his only appearance during Fall ’22. In 19 such 9F dirt ALW races in Spring Meets, 17 winners were 5-1 or less odds, no horse closed more than 4-1/4 lengths to win after the first half-mile and the average winner was just three-quarters of a length back at that stage The Prince’s Spur has a 9F ALW under his belt at Kee, finishing second in Fall ’22. Barber Road is 2-2 at Kee on dirt, winning an ALW last Spring and a Fall ’21 maiden claimer. For all his success as a sire here, Into Mischief has not had a 9F dirt winner at Kee. Cyclone Mischief and Pyrenees try to change that.
4th Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claiming sprinters battle over 7 furlongs. In 68 prior Spring Meet N2L claimers, wins are split 19-18 on top between Turfway and Fair Grounds preppers; Oaklawn’s 7 and Gulfstream’s 6 trail. They play fair in terms of prices with about 36% winning favorites and an average winner just over 4-1.In 41 such sprints at this level, only 3 winners closed more than 4 lengths after the opening half-mile to win (average winner just under 1 length back at that point). Wins at 7F are nearly evenly distributed by horses exiting sprint and route preps. Abadin has the best maiden win on his record in this non-winners of 2, a handicapping angle I like at Anytrack USA. His Saratoga MSW score in July should be effective. Jockey Luis Saez is Keeneland’s top 7F pilot with a positive ROI over the trip as well. Quencio is by Good Magic, a sire whose offspring were a sharp 5-16 over the Kee dirt in 2023. He brings Turfway form that often fits at this race condition.
5th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance has been taken off the turf, stats not applicable. Selections for dirt 10-14-7 as Just Better looks to become sire Justify’s first Keeneland dirt winner (has 2 turf winners already at this Spring Meet). KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
6th Race
The late pick 5 begins with a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. Favorites are a strong 42-93 (45% wins) in Spring 3YO MSW dirt races at Keeneland. Among 64 sprint races in this category, Gulfstream preppers lead with 17 wins, but first-time starters are right there with 15 (Fair Grounds next at 11). Turfway runners have struggled with just 3 wins. That said, Gulfstream rep On Command and the first-time starters Short Skirts and Songmaker make a lot of sense. Turfway-prepped Kehoe Beach goes for the powerful jockey-trainer combo of John Velazquez and Wesley Ward. They win 26% together at Keeneland, 34% on dirt, 40% in maiden races and 49% when bet to favoritism. Trainer Riley Mott had a sharp win Wednesday via Oaklawn and his OP prepper Bellofthebluegrass would be no surprise.
7th Race
The $250,000 Limestone Stakes starts the late pick 4 and is scheduled for 5-1/2 furlongs on turf. This race has had 4 previous editions and favorites are 2-for-4. Trainer Wesley Ward saddled the winner the past 2 years but is absent from the entries; ’21 winner Brian Lynch sends out Hot Beach. All 4 winners to date exited turf preps, 3 of those in sprints. The last 2 winners were making their first start of the year like Pipsy, Kodiac Wintergreen, Greavette, Crimson Advocate, Toupie and Amidst Waves all attempt. Don’t be afraid of a layoff. Joel Rosario has won this race 2 of its 4 years and those winners rallied from 6 lengths and 5-1/2 lengths back after the opening half-mile; you can close here. He’ll pilot Antique Silver. Power posts 3-4-5 are a strength in full-field turf sprints, which belong to Pipsy, Zoe’s Prime and Kodiac Wintergreen barring scratches. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
8th Race
Allowance sprinters square off over 7 furlongs in the non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) condition. We’ve had 15 of these N2L ALW sprints for elders in Spring Meets, and chaos has reigned. Four winners paid $20-plus mutuels and favorites are 1-15. What’s caused some of the chaos is that 10 of 15 such winners wer making surface changes from synthetic or turt (like Suncroft, Laver, No No Joe and Polster bid). Suncroft’s speed may interest most of that group. The average winner is only three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 1 winner closed more than 3 lengths from that point. Tunisian Spring was a sharp winner here in October and represents the powerful jockey-trainer combo of John Velazquez and Wesley Ward. They win 26% together at Keeneland, 34% on dirt, and 49% when bet to favoritism. His sire Violence’s offspring were a sharp 5-19 last year on the Kee dirt. Magic Express’ sire Good Magic saw his runners score 5-16 over this surface.
9th Race
Friday’s main event is the $600,000 Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, slated for a mile on turf. Favorites have lost 4 straight in this race and 7 of the last 9. That burden will fall on Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Master of the Seas, who ran a dynamite second in the Fall Meet to Up to the Mark in the Keeneland Turf Mile and makes his first start of the year. Over the last 16 years, we’ve seen 5 editions of this race won off such layoffs, including BC Mile winners Kip Deville and Wise Dan (twice). Trainer Charlie Appleby has a sharp 16: 4-5-1 record at Keeneland won 3 Breeders’ Cup races here in 2022. He’ll also saddle Naval Power, who has won 6 of 7 starts lifetime. Shirl’s Speight aims for a second win in the Maker’s Mark Mile, having captured this race in 2022. Soft turf conditions would likely favor the Appleby overseas invaders as well as the Irish/French export Kubrick’s experience on such ground and pedigree. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
10th Race
The action closes with a 1-1/16 miles starter allowance heat on dirt. Favorites are just 2-15 in Spring dirt route starter allowances and we’ve had more winners (3) at 10-1 odds or more. Fair Grounds preppers own a 5-3 edge over Oaklawn with Gulfstream and Turfway close up (2). Oaklawn’s presence at this level is notable given the limited starters sent here and fact that OP produced 2 winners on Wednesday’s card. That puts Lips Say Bliss in the focus. He also fits the conditions of this starter allowance to a T, dropping in once for $30,000 and winning easily to be eligible. He’s run well on a wet track if that’s a factor.