Plonk's Sunday Updated Keeneland Picks After Scratches + Stats, Trends
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, April 21, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Jockeys Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario and Florent Geroux are scheduled to return from road trips to Oaklawn today. Race 5 will be the multi-race “swing” key as it opens and closes the pick fives and wraps the early pick four. Spend extra time there.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 5,7,9.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cloudy with temps in the mid-50s on a cooler day, but we should have a fast track and good-to-firm turf.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Starter allowance runners match up at 1-1/16 miles on dirt to kick off the early pick 5. We’ve had 9 starter allowance races at the current Spring Meet. Turfway (4) and Fair Grounds (3) have accounted for most of the winners. Favorites are a strong 5-for-9 with 8 winners at 3-1 or less odds (average winner 5-2). Trainer Eric Foster and jockey Tyler Gaffalione already have a local starter allowance win in tandem this week and seeks a second with P H Factor. He’s 1 of 3 here via Turfway. FG rep Hoodlum has won 3 of his last 4. Sense You Left is by Street Sense and should show rail speed in a race with a decent pace projected.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 gets underway with a 4-1/2 furlong baby dash. Trainer Wesley Ward has won 4 of the 5 offered this meeting and now 45 of 82 since Keeneland’s return to dirt. He’ll have Dreamaway with John Velazquez aboard as a likely heavy favorite, along with Johnny Come Lately also entered. The latter is by Hottenanny, who has sired a couple of local baby dash winners for Ward during the ’23 Spring. Steve Asmussen used to be strong in these races during the Polytrack era, but he’s had just 2 dirt wins, both coming in 2017. He’ll likely take money with Clever Again, a $500K Keeneland September Yearling buy by American Pharoah. Horses running back second time at the meet have only 3 wins in baby dashes (2015, 2017, 2021), like many attempt here.
3rd Race
Turf mile maiden special weights meet in this one as well as a Race 9 split division. Favorites are 3-8 in turf maiden races this Spring Meet, but we’ve had 13-1, 16-1 and 25-1 upsets equally as prevalent. The surprising results are due in part to new-found success of 3 Turfway winners in this kind of race and a couple of first-time starters, which historically aren’t the way to look (now just 10 of 114 Spring turf MSW routes won by rookies). Trainer Brendan Walsh already had 2 turf maiden inners at the meet and sends out Claret Beret. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is a crazy 7: 5-2-0 this meet with horses 6-1 or less odds and sends out rookie Pisciotta. Curious to see how this one is bet. Timeless Elegance is well-drwn in post 3 and is by sire War Front, a very productive Kee grass sire. Exhilerate is also by War Front and out of Elate, a real blue-blood for Bill Mott, who is having a big meet. Chad Brown has a turf MSW route win at the meet and 10 in Springs overall, most of any barn. He’ll try with Segesta.There are several good options here.
4th Race
Dirt maiden claimers stretch out to 1-1/16 miles as the pick 6 starts. Favorites are 3-11 in MCL races this current meet with an average winner 5-1 odds. Turfway preppers hold a strong 6-2-2 edge over Oaklawn and first-time starters. Kenny McPeek has trained a pair of MCL winners at the meet and looks for a third with Extremely Gruntled. Strong Kee dirt sire Connect has both Colette’s Joy and Song Bridge in this field, the latter adding blinkers. Sire Street Sense’s third straight strong meet at Kee looks to continue with Sensible Choice. Another pedigree note Omaha Beach, sire of Solvent, has had a trio of dirt winners this current meet.
5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a first-level (N1X) allowance turf sprint. We’ve had 11 turf sprints at the Spring Meet after Saturday, with 4 winning favorites and 4 winners at 10-1 plus odds. Four of 10 led after the opening half-mile, while the average winner has been just under 2 lengths back at that stage. Turfway preppers lead the way with 4 victories, but note the 6 ALW races at this trip have been split 3-2 between Turfway and Gulfstream preppers. Don’t be afraid of a layoff runner as 5 of 11 winners were making their first start of 2024. Power posts 3-4-5 are historically strong in full-field turf sprints (including Saturday’s trifecta sweep), so give extra looks to Demolition Duke (for hot Week 3 trainer Brendan Walsh), Now That Ican Rock and Rigel. Jefe de Obra (by top local turf sprinter Hootenanny) and Salt Spray rep Keeneland leading turf sprint trainer Wesley Ward, who has 2 turf sprint wins this meet, including 13-1 on Saturday. Irad Ortiz Jr. has won a pair of turf sprint stakes at the current meet and pairs with Sugar Gray Leonard. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
6th Race
Three-year-old maiden special weights sprint the about 7-furlong distance as the late pick 4 commences. We’ve had 12 dirt MSW (non-2YO races) at the current meet with 5 winning favorites and 10 winners 3-1 or less odds. That’s typical as these races are among the most formful at Kee in the Spring annually. Gulfstream preppers have 4 wins, first-time starters 4 wins, so far this stanza. Digging deeper, we’ve had 33 Spring Meet 7F MSW for just 3YOs like this, and experienced horses hold a strong 26-7 edge in wins. Only 2 winners were making their first start of the year off the layoff like Dragoon Guard tries for Brad Cox. Trainer Brendan Walsh won similar races here in Spring ’22 and Spring ’23, and looks to keep his Week 3 success going with Temecula. The $1,050,000 Keeneland September Yearling graduate Lake Superior shows up via Santa Anita and moves from Bob Baffert to Rick Dutrow and picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. Should fit strongly with this particular group on paper.
7th Race
Sunday’s co-feature race is a third-level (N3X) allowance turf route over 1-1/8 miles. Favorites won 5 of 8 turf route ALW races after Friday’s split of a pair. Beyond the 5 winning turf route ALW favorites this meet were 9-1, 21-1 and 22-1 upsetters. Gulfstream preppers own 4 of the wins, Fair Grounds swept both on the card Friday. Canisy is the lone GP rep here. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is a crazy 7: 5-2-0 this meet with horses 6-1 or less odds, including a Friday turf ALW win, and sends out Blissful. Bill Mott also looks for a second turf ALW win of the meet and saddles French export Immensitude. Mott won Spring Meet turf ALW here in ’15, ’19 and ’22 with first-time European exports like this. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
8th Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance sprinters clash at 6 furlongs in the Sunday co-feature race. We’ve had 5 dirt sprint ALW races so far this meet, all 5 won by horses within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. But this race is loaded with early speed, which will be a handicapping decision to make. We’ve had 36 Spring Meet 6F ALW races over the years, 10 of them won in turf-to-dirt surface changes like Ready to Pounce and Swot Analysis attempt. Wins are evenly distributed with Gulfstream (9) and Fair Grounds (8) accounting for nearly half of them. Ready to Pounce and Insolito (who is by sharp Kee dirt sire Connect) are the only 2 winners over the track in the lineup.
9th Race
Week 3 draws to a close with this elder turf mile maiden special weight, a split division of today’s Race 3. Favorites are 3-8 in turf maiden races this Spring Meet, but we’ve had 13-1, 16-1 and 25-1 upsets equally as prevalent. The surprising results are due in part to new-found success of 3 Turfway winners in this kind of race and a couple of first-time starters, which historically aren’t the way to look (now just 10 of 114 Spring turf MSW routes won by rookies). Traditionally the Gulfstream preppers are the way to go and Risk Threshold is very well drawn for Chad Brown (whose 10 Spring Meet Kee turf MSW route wins are most of any active barn). Sister Honey is the only other GP rep here. Trainer Brendan Walsh already had 2 turf maiden inners at the meet, but his Coco Crush is on the also-eligible list. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.