Plonk's Picks on a Stacked Stakes Sunday
We get very few Sunday cards annually of this importance, but Mother Nature’s woes of recent weeks sort of steamrolled into a makeup day of sorts today at Saratoga and Colonial Downs. That’s put 5 major turf stakes in the spotlight.
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Let’s take a look at all 5 turf majors today in order of their scheduled post times:
Colonial Downs | Race 9 | 5:20 pm ET | Secretariat Stakes
The defections of Fulmineo and First World War should make Grade 1 winner #9 Trikari a solid favorite as I disagree with the morning-line making this one a projected second choice by the public. However, he’s been better longer and this race should have some sprint / cheap speed to it that will impact the Trikari’s preferred running style to press the pace. That opens the door for class-rising #1 Brilliant Berti with a strong late kick - and he’ll pick up Frankie Dettori on a late jockey change as my top pick.
Colonial Downs | Race 10 | 5:50 pm ET | Beverly D Stakes
$1.5 million earner #6 Moira could have stayed home at Woodbine and run in yesterday’s $200,000 Canadian Stakes, a race she won by 6+ lengths a year ago. That they put her on the van to Virginia this week to run here for $500,000 is a very good sign that she’s strong for her second start of the season. #4 Fev Rover won this race a year ago and has some course affinity edge (and is 1-for-2 in head-to-heads with Moira), but #6 Moira simply looks better right now and is the pick. #1 Libban will be on a send mission from the rail for red-hot trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., but 1-3/16 miles likely stretches her too far even with a pace edge.
Saratoga | Race 10 | 6:16 pm ET | Fourstardave Handicap
Scratch #2 Master of the Seas, who would have been heavily favored. #1 Strong Quality should be hustled from the hedge and will try to take them as far as he can under Dylan Davis. #5 Ottoman Fleet should get the first-over trip in a perfect position under newly minted Hall of Fame rider Joel Rosario. Am a little concerned that the last time he had to chase 47-and-change that he was flat late and may want to go slower and grind. The brilliance #7 More Than Looks displayed at the end of ‘23 was eye-catching and latching onto Irad Ortiz Jr. for the return seems like a very confident flex. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has brought Cagliostro (Keeneland) and She Feels Pretty (Preakness week at Pimlico) back off similar breaks with super efforts off the bench this year. Take my shot with #7 More Than Looks.
Colonial Downs | Race 11 | 6:40 pm ET | Arlington Million
Miler #6 Talk of the Nation and pace player #3 Sugoi should set a fair pace for 1-1/4 miles and set this up for the finishing trio of #1 Integration, #2 Ancient Rome and #4 Nations Pride. Those are the top 3 morning line choices and they get the proper table setting, meaning its unlikely all 3 would give up such an edge. Look for this one to play close to the vest as will all the Colonial big stakes today in my estimation. This scenario is a great use of the BRIS late pace figures and Integration’s are modest and pale in comparison to Nations Pride. Ancient Rome has been a better finisher at a mile than going 10F like this. Strong lean for me to #4 Nations Pride.
Saratoga | Race 11 | 6:49 pm ET | Saratoga Derby
#8 Trikari scratches to run at Colonial and #7 First World War opts to skip both races. #5 Fulmineo is pointed here instead of Colonial, but could be compromised what looks to be a lack of pace. #2 Izzy d’Oro (Irad Ortiz Jr. or not) would be a real surprise to nurse this field along over 1-3/16 miles. So it’s whoever gets the first-over trip who should be very tough to beat. #1 Legend of Time, #3 Royal Majesty and #6 Deterministic all could fall into that spot, though the distance appears too far for the last of that bunch. Legend of Time has been heavily bet in all 3 US starts and has only narrowly bested Royal Majesty in a pair of head-to-heads. For the price difference, take the value play in #3 Royal Majesty for a Bill Mott barn that’s 13: 4-3-4 at the Spa so far in August, according to Betmix - including 2-for-2 in stakes with Arthur’s Ride rolling in last week’s Grade 1 Whitney while sharp.