Plonk's Friday Keeneland Picks, Stats & Trends

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 19, 2024                                         

What to Watch for Today: A $33K pick 6 carryover on Races 5-10 takes center stage betting-wise. The Grade 3 $300,000 Doubledogdare will be our first stakes of Week 3 and goes featured in Race 9 for older fillies and mares on the dirt. Comely winner Raging Sea, regally bred Scylla and last year’s runner-up Hidden Connection are among the entrants.

Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 5,7,10.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 50% chance of morning showers and a cloudy afternoon with temps in the mid-60s is forecasted.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Maiden claimers sprint 7 furlongs to start the early pick 5. We’re reminded to look for prices in these spots, and Week 2 delivered them once again. Horses 10-1 odds or higher have won 10 of 29 Spring Meet 7F MCL races on dirt coming into this week, with last week’s quartet delivering 6-5, 14-1, 6-1 and 10-1 victories. Turfway preppers won 3 of those 4 last week, but it’s a narrow 7-5-4-4 margin overall for TP over Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds. Experienced runners have won 24 of the 29 with a solid edge over first-time starters Cut-backs in distance and those adding distance are split evenly in victories at this class/trip. She’s Spledid and Xtra Ordinary intrigue at 8-1 and 12-1 morning line prices, both via Turfway. The former showed good early speed in her only dirt effort, the latter is by Violence, whose offspring were a strong 5-19 on the Kee dirt last year.

2nd Race

The Spring Meet’s second maiden turf sprint licks off the early pick 4 (Thursday’s finale the first of the season). We’ve only had 7 such Spring Meet races for elder turf sprint maidens coming into this week, including 3 winning favorites (4 winners 5-2 or less odds). First-time starters account for 1 win, but 3 winners were horses making a comeback in their first start of the year. Only 1 winner turned back from a route prep. Posts 3-4-5 have a solid stats edge in full-field turf sprints and those power posts here belong to Baltimore Heart, Too Fracing Lucky and Monsieur Candy (most appealing of that trio) before scratches. Dominant Kee turf sprint trainer Wesley Ward 47 wins at this course/trip are 39 more than any other trainer and he’ll look for more with Beer Run. He’ll be making his first start of the year and that’s been a good formula in these races.

3rd Race

Lower-end $16,000 claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Turfway preppers won 4 of the Spring Meet’s first 8 claimers over the opening 2 weeks and represent 4 of the 7 entrants here (Atlantic Strike, Abitibi, Hope Over Fear and La Tourista). The average winner in Spring Meet 6F claimers over the years is a mere neck off the lead after the opening half-mile, one of the strongest early-speed leans in any situation at Keeneland. You’ll want a horse in the early mix. Abitibi was a clear second over this track showing decent speed in Spring ’23 vs. tougher and should be forward via Turfway for a very high-percentage jockey-trainer combo. Lots to like. Morning line favorite Wukpar makes a big class drop and also has shown some early foot more often than not. Favorites hit a strong 44% in 6F CLM sprints in Spring Meets over the years, very strong, so the logical favorites here make sense to decide it. Fair Grounds (21) and Turfway (14) have produced the most 6F CLM winners in Spring Meets, also endorsing the top pair.

4th Race

Three-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs with a capacity field of 12 entered. We’ve had 15 such races in Spring Meets for the class/age/distance with 7 winning favorites and only 1 winner above 5-1 odds. First-time starters (5) and Fair Grounds preppers (5) lead the way with Gulfstream (3) next. The connections who brought us Knicks Go to a monumental 2YO upset a few years back return with Knicks Hero (no equine relation). Ben Colebrook’s barn is firing well at the meet and this could be a live rookie. The big meet for sire Street Sense includes 4 winners on the dirt already and Adrfit could appreciate the return to dirt. Morning line favorite Run Jalen Run has been knocking on the door and would be no surprise, but has been beaten favorite 3 times. Orrizonte may be best of the Fair Grounds cast in here and is well-bred out of the quality mare Brownie Points.

5th Race

The pick 6 opener is a second-level (N2X) turf mile allowance and is a split division with today’s Race 10. Favorites won 4 of 6 turf route ALW races the first 2 weeks of the Spring Meet, and 4 winners came via Gulfstream. A whopping 34 of 75 Spring Meet turf mile ALW races in our database have been won by horses making their first start of the year, so embrace a layoff on a horse you like. Gulfstream preppers also account for 22 of those 75. Layoff runners here include Dude N Colorado and Greek Order for reputed turf barns of Mike Maker and Bill Mott. Freedom’s Way intrigues for Eddie Kenneally, a trainer who has been very successful in Week 3 of Keeneland Spring Meets in recent years, holding horses that are live later in the meet. Freedom’s Way was a strong second here in April ’22 in his only other local turf try and gets some post relief after a wide draw at Fair Grounds. Expect some inside speed. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

6th Race

First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters match up over 6 furlongs to start the late pick 5. We had 14 dirt ALW races the first 2 weeks of the current meet, all winners 7-1 or less with an average winner 7-2 odds (favorites 4-14). Gulfstream preppers led with 6 wins, followed by Oaklawn (3), Fair Grounds (2) and Turfway (2). Look for early speed as the average winner in 6F dirt ALW races in Spring Meets over the years is only a neck off the lead after the first half-mile. Sire Street Sense has had a big meet with 4 winners already on dirt and has Calle Amada here for Todd Pletcher. Princess Celina goes for a Wesley Ward barn that’s dominated Week 3 of the Keeneland Spring Meets in recent years, and note Ward has 4 wins in 6F dirt ALW races in Spring Meets, most of any trainer. Only 6 of 35 such Spring Meet 6F ALW races on dirt have been won by horses making their first start of the year as favorites Emery and Calle Amada will attempt, as well as Rhapsody.

7th Race

The late pick 4 begins with a stakes-quality turf sprint allowance. No Wesley Ward entrants in a turf sprint here opens the toteboard. We’ve had 53 turf sprint ALW races in Spring Meets since 2011, with 21 winning favorites (40%) and no bombers above 16-1. Wins are evenly distributed with Gulfstream (14) and Fair Grounds (12) atop as expected. Posts 3-4-5 have a solid stats edge in full-field turf sprints and those power posts here belong to Ambivalent, Olympic Runner and Nice Ace before scratches. Ambivalent is most interesting of that trio with outstanding turf form that’s soiled by poor dirt results mixed into his running lines. There’s little local turf experience in this group, so the strong showings here by veteran Mark of the Z in the past can’t be ignored, and Oceanic is not only a course winner but was runner-up in the Woodford Stakes locally. Four of these cut back from route preps last time and that’s been a big hurdle in Kee turf sprints (less than 8% of them won that way since 2006). KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

8th Race

First-level (N1X) allowance routers clash over 1-1/16 miles on the main track. We had 14 dirt ALW races the first 2 weeks of the current meet, all winners 7-1 or less with an average winner 7-2 odds (favorites 4-14). Gulfstream preppers led with 6 wins, followed by Oaklawn (3), Fair Grounds (2) and Turfway (2). Only about 15% of Spring Meet route ALW races on dirt have been won by horses over 5-1 odds, so don’t dig too deep here. No one has saddled more Spring dirt route ALW winners here than Todd Pletcher’s 9, and he’ll send out heavily favored Wood Memorial and Pennsylvania Derby-placed Dreamlike for his 4YO return from the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Nine of the 10 route ALW races on dirt this Spring Meet were won by horses within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Inside speed here could be from Havildar on the stretchout for a Rick Dutrow barn off to a good return at Keeneland. Trainer Cherie DeVaux already has 2 dirt ALW wins at the meet and looks for another with Cagliostro.

9th Race

Friday’s featured race is the Grade 3 $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes at 1-1/16 miles. This race has been run 8 times since Keeneland’s surface change back to dirt, and the winners have come from 7 different last-race venues. The only 2-time winning prep locale was Sam Houston’s Ladies Classic, which Hidden Connections exits this year. Note she was runner-up in this race a year ago. She’s by sire Connect, whose offspring went 5-19 on dirt at Kee in 2023. Interesting price chance. Four of the last 8 winners of this race were making their first start of the year, so don’t hesitate about a layoff horse you like. The half-mile leader has won the Doubledogdare just once in those 8 editions with an average winner more than 3 lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile. Seven of the last 8 winners have been 9-2 or less odds. Curlin has sired the winner of this race 3 of the last 5 years and is represented by Raging Sea, whose form over this track includes strong showings in the Alcibiades and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in the ’22 Fall Meet. Pedigree players will flock to Scylla, a daughter of Tapit-Close Hatches, making her full-sister to Tacitus; note her full-brother Batten Down finished third here earlier this meet as favorite in MSW company. The pace should be hot with Loved part of that mix. She was an 11-1/2 length winner here in Spring ’23 over MSW runners has won 3 of her last 4. She hasn’t run since July, but trainer Brendan Walsh notably has had Week 3 Keeneland Spring success in recent years.

10th Race

The curtain closes with a second-level (N2X) turf mile allowance, split division of Race 5 today. Favorites won 4 of 6 turf route ALW races the first 2 weeks of the Spring Meet, and 4 winners came via Gulfstream. A whopping 34 of 75 Spring Meet turf mile ALW races in our database have been won by horses making their first start of the year, so embrace a layoff on a horse you like. None of the layoff types here jump out at me as top contenders, however. Gulfstream preppers also account for 22 of those 75. The Gulfstream cast is represented by Belouni, Loyal Company and Wicked Finn. Loyal Company trainer Brendan Walsh has been one of the top Week 3 Spring Meet trainers at Keeneland the past 3 years and has bullets ready for this of the meet. Morning line favorite Northern Invader is respected, but a 1-for-6 career record as the betting favorite means you don’t have to take a short price. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.