Kentucky Oaks Day Final Thoughts
This is sort of like Breeders’ Cup Friday for me. Exciting day. Fun to watch. Won’t bet much at all. There’s too much brewing Saturday to over-extend budgets on Friday.
Add in the sloppy track today and questionable turf at Churchill Downs and the emphasis goes even more lopsided toward Saturday plays. There’s no shame in that. Perhaps your opinions on the card are stronger Friday than Saturday. Then swap roles. Again, no shame in that either.
Whatever you take away from my handicapping and strategies over the years, I hope that the main thing is that not all races are created equal. Some are great bets; others are terrible. And the WORST thing you can do is bet the same amount essentially on every race. It’s the most important reminder I can give you as you embark on 27 races over 2 days from Churchill Downs. If your budget is $270 and you bet $10 on every race, you’ll have failed in almost every sound horseplaying technique.
Find your 3-4 key plays over 2 days and put aside 80% of your budget for those, whatever that total amount is. The 20% left over is your action or fun money. Get that $2 exacta on your favorite horse in the bad betting race. You’ve earned the right to have some fun. But resist the temptation to fish too deep when the pond isn’t stocked.
Who are your 3-4 key plays Friday and Saturday? Find them. Attack them in as many ways as you can, and watch your account balance, wallet or purse swell when you’ve made the right calls.
Get paid when you’re right. That’s what it’s all about. Even on Kentucky Derby weekend.
KENTUCKY OAKS PICKS
A few weeks ago, I thought this race was Tarifa vs. everyone else. But 2-year-old champion Just F Y I has been making up for lost time in a way unlike many I’ve seen train up to a big race; she’s back in the mix to be certain. And Thorpedo Anna continues to blossom like a filly who could absolutely be draped in the lilies. That speedy Our Pretty Woman has now drawn into the field adds a legitimate amount of early pace to a race that already looked capable of cooking over the top. It turned out to be an extremely tough race, not Tarifa vs. the world.
No overwhelmingly strong opinion here, but the fillies with the best chance to finish late as they extend to 1-1/8 miles may be #12 Power Squeeze and #5 Thorpedo Anna. The price will be right on Power Squeeze and I like her pedigree best in this group for the additional distance as well. It’s such a deep race, but I’ll try to get 1 of those 2 on top. Looking at 12,5 over 12,5,8,11,13,14 in exactas and trifectas.