Keeneland Closing Day Post-Scratch Thoughts

Cooling temps but great racing conditions dot closing day at Keeneland with a $72,980 pick 6 carryover. After scratches, we’re looking at some short-priced favorites in the Bowman Mill and Fayette Stakes as part of that sequence. Beating one or both will be key to the payoff size, though I’m expecting it to be formful.

I’ve got 2 key plays remaining after scratches: Race 2 #9 Princess Is Olivia is taking advantage of the race conditions, while Race 7 #6 Lady Emily Kathryn is a price play who loves the Keeneland turf.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 26, 2024                                  

What to Watch for Today: First things first, thank you for the privilege of providing Keeneland racing information to you all these years. I hope you have a great autumn and stretch into the holiday season.

Closing day of the Fall Meet features 3 stakes, the Bowman Mill for 2-year-old sprinters, the Fayette for older dirt routers and the Bryan Station for 3-year-olds on turf. A two-day pick 6 carryover of $72,980 awaits horsesplayers on the final half-dozen races.

Races 5,7,9  make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A mix of sun and clouds with temps in the upper 60s are forecasted. Should be a fast-firm finale.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

The early pick 5 gets underway with a dual-condition claimer over 6-1/2 furlongs. Edistrudis comes off a long layoff, but that’s been a strong suit for trainer Fausto Gutierrez and this filly by Practical Joke is bred to like the Keeneland main in her local debut. Play Good Pay Good was a smashing winner over this track in April and is better than her 2-turn flop at Laurel now back to 1-turn racing. Trainer Saffie Joseph has had some Week 4 success in recent Fall Meets and his All Clash should be respected via Gulfstream.

2nd Race

The early pick 4 opener is a dual-condition claimer over 7 furlongs. Princess Olivia is a 3-time winner taking on elder non-winners of 3 lifetime and one of the rare horses to properly take advantage of these dual-condition claiming races. Good draw for 7F on the outside. Outofnothingatall was a sharp, front-end winner over this track and trip in April and Super Saver long has been a solid Kee dirt sire. Jackie’s Love and Bourbon Breeze also are previous winners of the track.

3rd Race

Two-year-old turf maiden special weights extend the trip to 1-1/8 miles. Keep an eye on scratches and changes here as Poema would be the choice if able to draw into the field. Mambo Queen exits a runner-up in her debut behind Ramsey Pond, who runs in Gulfstream’s Our Dear Peggy Stakes later today. That was a good effort against a speed-biased turf course, similar to those put forth by the aforementioned Poema and My Gal. Sire Hard Spun has had 5 winners at the meet (4 turf) and trainer Cherie DeVaux has had a big Fall as well, so Love And Poetry intrigues as a rookie, but the trends say lean to experience on top.

4th Race

Starter allowance routers match up over 1-1/16 miles on dirt in this one. Several of these really fit the $20,000 starter allowance level strongly: Best Performer, Lady Mercedes, Windy Walk, Big Bad Diva and Windy Bay. That’s where I will start to whittle this deep field. Windy Walk trainer Christopher Davis has had a strong meet with limited starters, gets Luis Saez to ride and this filly ran one of her best efforts in a prior Keeneland win. In fact, she’s got the only Kee dirt score in the cast and is the pick to get another.

5th Race

The $72,980 carryover pick 6 and the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 start out with this 1-3/16 miles first-level (N1X) allowance on turf. Keep watch for the scratches and changes as also-eligible Random Harvest looks strong off a smashing debut at Kentucky Downs for Jimmy Toner if able to draw into the field. Heart Spin made a big rally against the KD bias to be second last out and is by sire Hard Spun (5 wins at meet, 4 on turf). Public Assembly is proven over the distance for Chad Brown and should get a ground-saving trip.

6th Race

Our first of 3 stakes, the $200,000 Bowman Mill, begins the late pick 5. Long Neck Paula scratched from Friday’s Myrtlewood on the assumption of running here, while White Sands stayed in the Friday race and is expected to scratch. Trainer Wesley Ward won the inaugural Bowman Mill in 2021 with Nakatomi and looks for a second with Long Neck Paula. She exits a win at Prairie Meadows, same final prep destination as last year’s Bowman Mill winner Glengarry. Macho Music impressed with a local allowance win here opening weekend and comes back on 3 weeks. We saw the fillies’ version of this race, the Myrtlewood, won by Key of Luck 2 years ago in similar fashion. The speedy Macho Music ran a massive race off the same 21-day break when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream. Mittys’ Griddy rallied from the clouds to win an eye-catching Churchill debut for Brad Cox. Kee 6F dirt races are nearly never won in that fashion, so he’ll have to break much better, but has a ton of ability.

7th Race

The late pick 4 opener also serves as the second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and it’s a second-level (N2X) allowance mile on grass. Extremely deep race with good options. Lady Emily Kathryn was a course winner in April over 9F and just missed in a turf mile here in Fall ’23. Leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione pilots while the filly adds blinkers. That feels like a “go-time” move on rider and equipment. Mrs. Astor has been second twice at Keeneland over the past 18 months and snapped a 9-race losing streak last out at a short price at Colonial. Respect, but can’t take a short price again. Neom Beach, Kehoe Beach and Work of Fiction all merit consideration for multi-race bets.

8th Race

The Saturday co-feature is the Grade 2 $350,000 Fayette at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Since returning to dirt 10 editions ago, no Fayette winner has topped 8-1 odds with an average winner 7-2 (3 favorites). All 10 winners were within 3 lengths of the front after the first half-mile with an average winner just over a half-length back at that point. Brad Cox won this race in 2018 and 2022 and seeks a third when he sends out Hit Show, a winner in 3 of his last 4 and a Keeneland winner in his only prior try. Cox has a Kee meet record 5 stakes wins already at the Fall ’24 stand. Tumbarumba may vie for favoritism and also is 1-for-1 locally, winning here in a ’23 Spring allowance. Five of the last 6 Fayette winners exited 9F preps, which would tilt to Hit Show among that pair. Others exiting 9F races: Uno Mas Bourbon (Super Derby win), Grand Aspen (January’s Pegasus World Cup) and Hit Show’s Lukas Classic pursuers Bolzy and Rattle N Roll. The latter has a strong Keeneland history, winning the ’23 Ben Ali and ’21 Breeders’ Futurity. He can become just the second 3-time Keeneland stakes winner on the main track since the Fall 2014 return to dirt – joining 4X local dirt winner Malathaat.

9th Race

The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 concludes with today’s co-featured Grade 3 $600,000 Bryan Station for grass milers. This race has a sporadic history, run 8 times since 2006, but consistent since 2021. Of the 8 editions, 7 of the winners cut back from 1-1/8 or 1-1/4 miles preps.  That’s good news for Lagynos and Protective. Last year’s renewal produced a 20-1 upset with favorites 2-8 in this race, 1 of the last 5. Respect Grade 1 Belmont Derby winner Trikari, but he did run poorly here in his ’23 Fall debut effort and has made a cross-country flight in recent weeks. Brilliant Bertie has won 4 of his last 5 for a Cherie DeVaux barn that’s merited respect all meet. My Boy Prince was strong in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and narrowly missed King’s Plate glory this year in his native Canada. Twirling Point is cross-entered in this race and the Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. The Strawbridge home-bred is out of Keeneland-loving mare Kitten’s Point, who in 2015 swept the Bewtich and Dowager over this course.

10th Race

Keeneland’s final race of 2024 and today’s Toyota Super High 5 race will be a $150,000 maiden claimer at 6 furlongs for the 2-year-olds. First-crop sire Vekoma has taken the nation by storm and the Kee Fall Meet has been no different, so Thunderhawk has to be respected on pedigree. Winter Creek intrigues on a cut-back in trip for high-percentage trainer Phil Bauer. And on a lighter note, in a meet where favorites have been so successful, wouldn’t it suit that The Chalk closed the curtain here? The Bret Calhoun trainee fits on form, much less the irony.