Keeneland Closing Day Picks & Trends from Plonk

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 28, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Mandatory payouts in all wagering pools will be in play on closing day of the Fall Meet as the stakes schedule includes the Grade 2 Fayette, the Grade 3 Bryan Station and the Bowman Mill Stakes. The Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be on Races 6,8,10.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione started slow opening weekend, but has finished with an absolute flourish, winning 4 races Thursday and 3 more on Friday to all but clinch the leading rider title. Brad Cox has poured it on closing week to secure the trainer crown.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 40% chance of showers is in the forecast with high temps in the upper 60s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Dual-condition claimers open the early pick five at 7 furlongs on dirt. Favorites won 12 of 25 claiming races at the current meet coming into Friday Of the 6 dual-condition claimers this season (for non-winners of 3 lifetime or open to any 3-year-old), wins have been split with Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis each accounting for 2. Of the 16 claiming sprints this meet, only 4 were adding distance and 3 of 4 at this trip ran 7F plus last time. Born Flawless comes out of a 7F heat for a Tom Amoss barn whose 3 wins at the meet include 2 dirt sprints.

2nd Race

Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to start the early pick four. Also note Race 10 will be a split division of this race. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. A trends bomb fit could be the only stretch-out horses here in J Bird Time for a Dale Romans barn that typically does well at Kee Fall with 2YOs routing. First-time starters Disattached and Transcendental offer historical appeal. Certainly respect the third by Lat Long here Oct. 14 on dirt vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mage’s impressive kid brother Dornoch. Raguel goes for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race here Friday.

3rd Race

Allowance performers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Early speed has been effective this meet in the 7 previous races at 9F dirt, an average winner just a length off the lead after the opening half-mile. Promise Me a Ride looks to be potential controlling speed for the meet’s runaway leading trainer brad Cox. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD runners hold a 4-1 edge in route ALW races from just 8 offered, good news for Bromley and Denington (the latter for trainer Kenny McPeek, who won a similar race here Friday).

4th Race

Elder maiden special weight sprinters battle 6 furlongs. Seven of 8 such races at the meet have been won by horses 4-1 or less, including 4 favorites after Friday’s opener. Seven exited preps in Kentucky (including a run-back at the meet winner Friday, others split evenly 2 each from Churchill, Ellis & Kentucky Downs). Debut runners account for only 3 of 56 elder MSW races on dirt in Fall Meets over the years and just 1 since 2017 (Bourbon to Blame and Howl are rookies here of interest, but trying to buck a lot of history). Insensitive and Crushed Ice run back second time at the Fall Meet in a rematch, while the heating-up Kenny McPeek barn sends out CD-prepped Kid’s Last Laugh, while logical CD alumni include Foxfire and Musical Prayer. Oaklawn layoff runner Rubia has trained nicely on cue for the return and appears well-meant for Steve Asmussen. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Good options abound in this race.

5th Race

The pick six and Keeneland Turf Pick Three kick off with a 1-3/16 miles allowance on grass. We’ve only had 19 such trips at this distance in Fall Meets during the 17 years of our database, including Friday’s offering. Only 2 winners were on the front end with two-thirds of winners 2-6 lengths back after the first half-mile (13-1 shot Callie’s Grit wired the field Friday to buck that trend). Kentucky Downs preppers own 13 of the 22 turf allowance wins after Callie’s Grit won Friday. That’s good news for KD alumni Spirit Maker, Hilliard, Our Dream Rye’d, Clever Thought and Truly Quality. Of those 19 winners, 14 last prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer – which crosses over with the final 4 of those KD alumni listed. The strength of this race comes from that quartet.

6th Race

The 6-furlong $200,000 Bowman Mill Stakes for 2-year-olds opens the late pick five. Like its sister race, the Myrtlewood Stakes run on Friday, the Bowman Mill joined the stakes schedule in 2021 and will be renewed for a third time. Wesley Ward won the inaugural with Nakatomi and will try for a second on the strength of sharp opening day local winner Royal Slipper, a filly meeting the boys. She was the only front-running winner on the card Oct. 6, running nearly a full second faster than a similar 2YO MSW on the card. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Steve Asmussen-Ricardo Santana team with Valentina Candy and already have a very sharp 2YO 6F winner at the meet in Booth.

7th Race

A stakes-caliber allowance sprint at 7 furlongs leads off the late pick four. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD-prepped O Besos and Caddo River are the only reps of either venue. Only 4 of the 22 races at 7F were won by horses cutting back in distance from their last start like the pair of CD horses attempt. Fortin Hill is a Keeneland horse-for-course to watch, an eye-catching winner here in the ’23 Spring Meet when beating return rival Chasing Time. Look to early pace here as 19 of 22 races this Fall Meet at 7F were won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 1 length back at that point).

8th Race

The Grade 3 $300,000 Bryan Station Stakes serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This race has had a sporadic history in the Fall Meet at Keeneland, but is in its third straight year since returning in 2021. Trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher won this race in its former iteration back in 2007 and 2008 and look to reconnect the dots with Gigante and Dude N Colorado, respectively. So far this Fall Meet, the 11 turf stakes have produced an average winner just under 8-1 odds with as many 11-1 plus winners (3) as favorites (3). This meet’s 11 turf stakes have been won by 10 different jockeys and 10 different trainers, Chad Brown (Appraise) and Joel Rosiaro (Gigante) becoming the first to double up after Friday’s Valley View. Flavien Prat has been the dominant turf jockey at the meet with 9 grass wins and teams with Pride of the Nile. Turf miles have only been won once in 11 tries this meet by the half-mile leader, but the average winner is just 2-2/4 lengths back at that point, so look for stalkers.

9th Race

Dirt runners clash over 1-1/8 miles in the featured Grade 2 $350,000 Fayette Stakes. This has been a formful race since returning to dirt in 2014, particularly of late with 4 of its last 5 winners at 8-5 or less odds. No winner has topped 8-1 since 2014. The 9 winners have come from Churchill (6) and Saratoga (3) with 6 of those 9 prepping at 1-1/8 miles. Happy American and Trademark at the CD alumni exiting 9F races and fit the profile nicely. Front-runners have had exceptional success here with an average winner less than a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile (5 straight have been within 1 length of the front at that point). From a handicapping standpoint, I love the reunion between Il MIracolo and jockey Luis Saez, who has ridden that one to his best finishes. King Fury ran fourth in this race last year for a Kenny McPeek barn that has caught a hot streak at the tail end of this Fall Meet after a terribly slow start. King Fury, a local winner, is out of 2014 Raven Run winner Taris. Note: Film Star is expected to scratch and run in New York.

10th Race

Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to wrap the Fall Meet and the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This is a split division of Race 2. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. Time Song and Act of Mutiny both have stretch-out appeal in this race for Pletcher and McGaughey barns that have had good meets with 2YOs and turf runners, respectively. First-timers Trikari and Domingo also interest, the latter for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race to this one here on Friday. Chad Brown won Friday's similar other division and looks to score the nightcap in back-to-back days, this time with Vivaldi.