JP's Updated Keeneland Wednesday Selections & Pick 4 Ticket
Beautiful conditions on a fast-firm Day 9 of 15 as we start the traditional Week 3 of the Keeneland Spring Meet. We’re at a $2.05 ROI for every $2 bet on top choices for the first half of the meeting after strong days Saturday (4 wins) and Sunday (6 wins) produced 10 winners in the last 20 races. Hard pace to keep up, but feeling good about the track since things fully dried out. Some real price shots today with 15-1 (Race 6) and 30-1 (Race 5) runners tabbed on top.
Wesley Ward scratched top pick Vibora from Race 1 today because she is re-entered later in the week and will fly solo with Satisfied Mind in the opener. No other important changes from the scratches from my original picks.
Some Keeneland news this morning — Blue Grass pacesetter Owen Almighty has been put back into Kentucky Derby consideration. That would have impact on the Derby tempo as we look forward to the first Saturday in May.
Here are today’s selections, followed by a late pick 4 play afterward.
Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Wednesday Late Pick 4 Analysis
Wednesday’s Keeneland late pick 4 carries a 1 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion when you play through 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The sequence looks deep and challenging with field sizes of 12x8x12x11 and no obvious, free-space favorites. That’s good news for those looking for a healthy score, and who amongst us doesn’t want that?
We took down Sunday’s late pick 4 in this space for $274 on a $16 ticket, so let’s double down to open the racing week in Lexington.
Race 5
#4 Dear Scarlett (30-1 morning line) and #3 Candy Mine (4-1 ML) drew advantageous posts in this turf sprint maiden race and are deep closers looking to make ground-saving rallies. I’m taking the bigger price on top, but will look for depth in this spot with #7 Izzy Sweet Girl (10-1 ML), whose sire has done really good work in Keeneland turf sprints, and #10 Magic Escapade (6-1 ML), a sharp-working rookie from a win-early barn and hot jockey in the saddle in Luis Saez.
Race 6
#8 Trust Issues (15-1 ML) is 5: 1-2-2 on fast dirt and hasn’t misfired, yet his record looks inconsistent due to several races on synthetic, turf or wet tracks. He’s reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to a win and second-place finish in 2 prior pairings. Drawn nicely outside in modest field size for 6 furlongs. #6 Augusta Melody (3-1 ML) runs second-off-the-layoff after a notable fourth by 1 length at Fair Grounds behind Discreet Mischief, who returned to smash allowance foes here last week. Comfortable with this pair.
Race 7
This is another full-field turf sprint and it’s full of good allowance options. #4 Elegant (6-1 ML) transfers from the Bob Baffert barn and should bring California speed to Rudy Brisset and lures Flavien Prat from an advantageous draw. International export X-factors #2 Tales of the Heart (6-1 ML) and #3 Latin Fever (8-1 ML) arrive in Hall of Fame barns. #12 Big Trouble (9-2 ML) should be flying late down the center of the course under Jose Ortiz, while #9 Saturday Flirt (7-2 ML) was a course winner here as a 2-year-old for the always-dangerous turf sprint barn of Wesley Ward.
Race 8
#1 Princess Is Olivia has won 5 of her last 9 starts, including a 7-furlong claimer here during the Fall Meet when battling every step. She’s likely more effective at today’s 6-furlong trip and looks to go to 3-for-3 when teamed with Luis Saez, who could be poised for another big day. I’ll single here in the finale while fearing the late rally of #6 Sally’s Surprise, who would be the logical addition to the ticket for those faint of heart or who prefer to single in another spot in the sequence.
The Ticket:
4,7,10,3 with 8,6 with 4,2,3,12,9 with 1 = $20 for $.50