JP's Sunday Keeneland Stats, Trends & Picks
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, April 7, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Sophomore sprint fillies square off in the featured Grade 2 $400,000 Beaumont, 1 of 3 stakes on the final program of opening weekend. With the 9-race format, note Race 5 will be a swing race between the early and late pick 5. Focus extra time there in your handicapping.
Bettors have been welcomed back with a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 5,7,9 and include the Palisades Stakes.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: It’s heating up. Mostly sunny skies and temps reaching 68 degrees are in the forecast.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well.
1st Race
The baby dashers get Sunday rolling as well as the early pick 5. It’s our second such race of the season and, on cue, Wesley Ward crushed the Friday offering with Shoot It True. He’s now got 42 wins in the 78 baby dashes on dirt in Spring Meets since 2015. John Hancock, runner-up in Friday’s heat, is a distance second with 9 victories. Ward sends out Sweet Kauff, half-sister to smashing ’21 local baby dash winner Kaufymaker, as well as Image of Me, a son of Keeneland star Hootenanny, who sired a pair of local 2YO Spring winners in 2023. Demand a local Keeneland workout, possessed by 66 of the 78. Jockey Albin Jimenez, who has a stellar 10-for-21 record in baby dash races at Keeneland (must note that he’s 7-for-10 on Ward trainees, but a solid 3-for-11 for other barns), rides Baytown Cleopatra.
2nd Race
Starter allowance sprinters match up over 6 furlongs to kick off the early pick 4. The average winner in Spring Meet starter allowance races has been 7-2 odds, but that dips to an even more formful 5-2 price when looking at the 28 held at sprint distances – including the meet-opening favorite on Friday. Early speed is imperative at this class and distance historically, which could bode well for Hocus and Supremely, the pair I project with the best chance to battle up front. Hocus is by super Kee longshot sire Archarcharch, whose 14 winners here on dirt average 12-1. He’s an 18% local sire with a $2.35 ROI for every $1 bet – insane. Hocus has already run very well here underscoring that. Supremely has a pair of solid local efforts as well. Pico d’Oro is by Curlin (7 wins, most of any sire on dirt here last year, 25% win rate).
3rd Race
A second straight starter allowance on the card is offered here; this one at 7 furlongs on dirt. The average winner in Spring Meet starter allowance races has been 7-2 odds, but that dips to an even more formful 5-2 price when looking at the 28 held at sprint distances – including the meet-opening favorite on Friday. 11 of 13 winners at this class and distance were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, so consider early pace. 10 of 13 were adding distance from their most recent race (only 1 exited a 2-turn prep as many of these bid to do). Profile fits with early speed and adding some distance include Pretty Fast, Barksdale, Fear and Loathing and Northern Chill.
4th Race
Entry-level (N1X) dirt allowance routers match up to start the pick 6. We’ve had 31 similar races in terms of class and distance with an average winner just 3-1 odds – only 1 winner above 10-1. Fair Grounds preppers own 12 of the wins with Gulfstream next at 8. That bodes well for Yes Indeed and Pretty Ana via FG. While some Kee races have been havens for layoff horses, 31 of these 36 races winners already had a start in the current campaign, something Twirling Good Time tries to buck. Her trainer Phil Bauer got the meet off to a good start with an ALW win Friday. Always respect the Brad Cox trainees in Kee races at 1-1/16 miles on dirt, where he wins 31% and shows a $1.13 ROI for every $1 bet. He’ll send out Befriended.
5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a turf sprint allowance. Don’t be afraid of a price play as the 7.05-1 average odds winner on this type of race is second-highest in any category at Keeneland. Turfway-prepped horses won 3 of 6 such offerings last Spring and they’ve unloaded in the entry box with 7 chances in this race. As we always mention in full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, posts 3-4-5 have a fantastic record, winning 24 of 58 such offerings (41% despite only 25% of the field) and at an average win odds of 10-1. Power posts 3-4-5 belong to Frango Electrico, Run for the Hills and Hideki before scratches. Wesley Ward’s 46 turf sprint wins in our local database crush the competition (Todd Pletcher next-best with 8). Ward sends out Hurricane Debbie. PART OF THE KEENELAND TURF PICK 3.
6th Race
Dirt route maiden special weight runners open the late pick 4. These races historically are amongst the most predictable at Keeneland with 46.2% winning favorites and an average winner just 3.3-1 odds, by far the lowest payout of any local race division. Those numbers are even more stark in Spring Meets at 58.5% favorites and 2.78-1 odds. Gulfstream preppers have won 20 of 41 such past Spring MSW routes on dirt, compared to Fair Grounds next-best with just 6. More than three-quarters of these winners exited preps at a mile or farther. Sidamara should be favored off a strong debut at Gulfstream going a mile, checking all the boxes for Bill Mott. The Arrogate filly is a daughter of Spring in the Air, who won the Alcibiades here at Keeneland in the Polytrack era. Encourageeachother is by sire Street Sense, who had 6 dirt winners last year at Kee who won at 25%. His trainer Todd Pletcher got off to a fast start at the meet with 2 wins opening Friday.
7th Race
Next up is the $250,000 Palisades for 3-year-old turf sprinters. This race makes its fifth appearance on the stakes schedule and hasn’t developed any strong tendencies. As we always mention in full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, posts 3-4-5 have a fantastic record, winning 24 of 58 such offerings (41% despite only 25% of the field) and at an average win odds of 10-1. Power posts 3-4-5 belong to Mansa Musa, No Nay Mets and Silent Heart before scratches. Wesley Ward’s 46 turf sprint wins in our local database crush the competition (Todd Pletcher next-best with 8). Ward sends out Fandom. Jockey Joel Rosario’s 12 turf sprint stakes wins at Keeneland are easily most of any jockey and teams with My Boy Prince – winning this race in 2021 and 2022 specifically. Note that colt is by Cairo Prince, whose offspring were a razor-sharp 17: 4-4-0 on the Kee turf in 2023. That’s a lot to like. PART OF THE KEENELAND TURF PICK 3.
8th Race
Sunday’s featured $400,000 Beaumont Stakes matches sophomore fillies over 7 furlongs. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, favorites have 6 wins and we’ve seen 8 straight winners at 9-2 or less (7 of those at 5-2 or less). Don’t overthink it. Brad Cox trainee Youalmosthadme won the Myrtlewood in the Fall and a baby dash here in the Spring and is an obvious horse-for-course. Cox looks for a third straight win in this race after saddling Matareya and Key of Life. He’ll also have Denim and Pearls in this edition. The Beaumont runs through her. Fillies with early pace have dominated this race and Youalmosthadme would appear to have more natural early foot than these, another feather in her cap. Short-price single.
9th Race
Draw the curtain on opening weekend with a turf mile allowance. Turf route allowance races produce only 28.4% winning favorites, far underperforming expectations. Gulfstream preppers have had the insanely big edge in prep circuits in these races in Spring Meets, 122-26 over Fair Grounds. Holey Foley is the lone GP shipper here in the main body of the field, but beware the trio of also-eligible entrants who could draw in via GP. Chad Brown easily leads Spring Meet turf route ALW wins among trainers with 24 (Shug, Mott with 18 next-best). He can add to that with Hola Gata if she draws into the race. These races have been havens over the years for horses making their first start of the calendar year, which Justifiable Babe will attempt. 9 of 17 offered since 2019 in Spring Meets have been won by layoff runners from the previous year. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.