JP's Sunday Keeneland Final Thoughts after Scratches

Scratches were kind until the final race, where we made adjustments underneath the top pick Background, whose 10-1 morning line price will be shorter now with so many defections in the race. Let’s hope to continue a good run here to end the week after a couple of best bets this week and 9-for-20 over the past 2 days. Best bet today: Queen Regent in Race 6 as a single to start the late pick 5.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 13, 2024                                       

What to Watch for Today: Top filly and mare turf sprinters clash in the Grade 2 $350,000 Franklin Stakes, which goes as Race 8 of 9 on the card. Red-hot trainers Cherie DeVaux and Rodolphe Brisset each have a pair of starters on the card and worthy of extra consideration.

Races 4,6,8  make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low 80s are forecasted with fast-firm conditions continuing.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).                               

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

The early pick 5 begins with a 1-1/16 miles 2-year-old maiden special weight on dirt. We’ve had 53 such 2YO MSW dirt routes in Fall Meets, including 3 so far this stand, with 24 winning favorites (47%). Churchill preppers have dominated with 27 wins (NYRA next-best with 8) and that includes 3-for-3 this meeting. Five of these hail from CD preps, including Good Temper, Royalewithcheese, Ranch Life, Airforce Lightning and Fearless Lady – the first of which most interesting to me. Kenny McPeek’s 4 Fall 2YO MSW dirt route wins are third-most by any trainer and he’ll send out Mezcalifornia. Don’t overemphasize prep distance here as it’s spit evenly between those exiting sprints and routes. About 85% of winners are within 3 lengths of the front after the opening half-mile (average 1-3/4 lengths back at that point).

2nd Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers get the early pick 4 underway. In 25 past Fall Meet 6F N2L claimers, 22 winners have been 6-1 or less. Churchill preppers hold an 8-3 wins edge over Horseshoe Indy in a pretty wide swath of tracks. These grab bags have seen 24 different barns win the 25 races. Fourteen of the 25 winners trimmed some distance off their last prep like some key players in here attempt like Refuah and Lend It Tewmey et al. The wildcard is Headline Report for Wesley Ward, away 1-1/2 years but a local maiden winner here in his 2021 debut. Only 2 of the 25 winners in these races came off extended layoffs (and they were March-October breaks). Despite that, I’ll take a chance Headline Report is ready in that John Velazquez was named to ride, and I can’t imagine him riding if he wasn’t.

3rd Race

This one is a rare fourth-level N4X allowance sprint at 7 furlongs. In fact, we’ve had exactly 1 of these N4X races on dirt and 1 on turf in the past decade at Keeneland. Favorites dominated the first 5 dirt allowance sprints this meet, winning 4 (all 5 winners 2-1 or less). Speed has ruled these races with an average winner ahead by nearly a length after the first half-mile. Saratoga & Churchill preppers provided 2 wins apiece so far this meet in these spots. Chad Brown should have 2 of the favorites with Shidahbhut and Tough Street, the latter having more tactical speed for the trip. The big speed in this race comes from Speedy Traveler and Unsung Melody. Rudy Brisset-Flavien Prat teamed to win a similar race at the meet with World Traveler and recoonect with Royal Spa, a local winner here in April over 7F.

4th Race

Sunday’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 starts with a 2-year-old turf maiden special weight at 1-1/16 miles. We have 80 2YO MSW turf routes in our database with favorites underperforming with 23 wins and an average winner just under 10-1. Saratoga preppers have won 2 of 3 so far this current meet, though Kentucky Downs continues to hold a 19-16 mild edge over NYRA preppers over the years. First-time starters also own 16 wins. Cherie Devaux already has a score at the meet in a similar spot and looks for another with Serving Time. Sire Justify has had 5 turf winners here in the past 2 meets, and looks to add with Starry Night and Just Ruthless. Experienced horses hold about a 4-1 edge over rookies in 2YO turf MSW routes here. Among experienced winners of this race 41 exited a prep at a route trip, 23 stretched out from sprint to route.

5th Race

Lower-end $16K claimers compete in the swing race to the early and late pick 5, a 1-1/16 miles affair. The 34 Fall Meet CLM routes at this level or lower see 16 winning favorites and a 4-1 average price, very formful races. A few massive closers have won, but 24 of 34 winners were within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. While none of these have won at Keeneland, Cool Rags was a clear second here in ’22 Spring over the same distance in claiming company. If you’re looking for a price, Belterra runners actually have performed pretty well in these spots and Stirdapot comes off a Btp win and should be double-digit odds.

6th Race

The late pick 4 and the middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is this second-level (N2X) allowance at 1-1/2 miles on grass. We’ve had 37 Fall turf marathon ALW races like this and while favorites slightly underperform with 13 winners, the average winner is just 7-2 odds. All 37 have been won by horses 9-1 or less. It’s a strong closers profile with an average winner 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Kentucky Downs (11) and NYRA (10) preps have split the winners. Queen of Regent via KD should be solidly backed and dangerous for hot Week 2 connections of Tyler Gaffalione and Brendan Walsh, the trainer winning a similar race here in the ’23 Fall. Graham Motion has 5 wins in Fall turf marathon ALW races, most of any barn, and sends out Marksman Queen. Morning line favorite Holy Foley won a similar race here in ’24 Spring and trainer Brian Lynch won the Sycamore (12F turf) earlier this week.

7th Race

Third-level (N3X) allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs in this one. Favorites dominated the first 5 dirt allowance sprints this meet, winning 4 (all 5 winners 2-1 or less). Speed has ruled these races with an average winner ahead by nearly a length after the first half-mile. Saratoga & Churchill preppers provided 2 wins apiece so far this meet in these spots. West coast raider Anywho drops out of the stakes ranks when chasing one of the top Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint contenders Sweet Azteca in her last 2. Her trainer John Sadler’s last Keeneland winner came with the legendary Flightline in the ’22 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Pistol was a local winner in her maiden claiming graduation in Spring ’22 over 6F.

8th Race

The featured Franklin Stakes wraps up today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve got 18 years of history in our database on this race, 13 times the winner a well-backed runner at 3-1 or less odds. But favorites are 5-18, meaning you can catch something just off the chalk. Horses prepped at 6 furlongs or shorter last out have an 11-7 edge over those trimming a bit more distance. The 2013 and 2022 winners did trim back from 6-1/2 furlongs on synthetic in the Presque Isle Masters to win this race like Roses for Debra bids. This has been a finisher’s race with only 1 of 18 winners leading after the first half-mile (average winner nearly 4 lengths back at that juncture). Kentucky Downs and NYRA (Sar/Bel) have each produced 5 winners of the Franklin. A trio of trainers with entrants here have previously won this race: Steve Asmussen (Accomplished Girl), Phil D’Amato (Elm Drive) and Christophe Clement (Roses for Debra, Dontlookbackatall).

9th Race

The finale is an upper-level $40,000 claimer at 6 furlongs on dirt. These open, upper-end claimers at $40K or more have been great betting races with favorites just 11-43, but 40 of 43 winners at very get-able prices of 8-1 or less (average a square 9-2). Churchill preppers have 18 wins (Canterbury distant second with 4). That’s good news for my top look here Background, claimed out of his last start at CD by owner/trainer Steve Asmussen. Also from CD comes Chattalot for trainer Mike Maker, who has struggled mightily at the meet (0-17 after Saturday). But this barn easily leads all with 6 Fall wins in $40K+ open claimers like this. The average winner at this class level and distance in Fall Meets is just over a neck off the lead after the first half-mile, so you want a horse who can be in the frame turning for home.