JP's Saturday Belmont Stakes Full-Card Picks & Analysis
Exclusively for Substack followers, Jeremy Plonk provides a race-by-race look at Saturday’s card at Saratoga, centerpiece day of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.
RACE 1
8-WILL BE FAMOUS 6-1
2-ROSWELL 7-2
1/1A-LINDA RICE ENTRY 6-5
4-PROUD FOOT 8-1
Will Be Famous steps up in class, but is a 6-time winner in this first-level allowance and has kept top form despite recent barn changes. Roswell fits back sprinting on dirt … may be a big day for Mott.
RACE 2
4-MAINSTREAM 6-5
6-COPIUS 8-1
8-LIFE AND TIMES 6-1
5-STARS AND STRIDES 10-1
Mainstream exits stronger race than Secured Lender among the experienced runners who will take money. Mott rookie Copious bred to star & relish the Spa, but barn not knuckled down first time out. Big-day debut Life and Times relevant for Pletcher.
RACE 3
4-EL REZEEN 6-1
7-REDISTRICTING 6-5
2-SWIFTSURE 8-1
11-CATCH A WAVE X-1
El Rezeen moved too soon into a redhot pace at Keeneland in what was a very promising 4yo return. Solid tab at 5-1+ vs. respected class-dropper Redistricting, who figures to be tough. Swiftsure has inside speed and removes a lot of variables.
RACE 4
2-ECHO AGAIN 10-1
9-GENERAL PARNTNER 7-2
8-HADES 6-1
7-ELIMINATE 9-1
Echo Again another with a mistimed move last start at Churchill going a mile as 7 furlongs looks to be ideal and he’s won his only start at Spa in his 2022 debut by nearly 7L. Eliminate runs poorly at Spa = overbet, and favorite General Partner lost last 2 at odds-on.
RACE 5
7-PENTATHLON 12-1
2-SILVER SLUGGER 5-2
3-ROCKETEER 12-1
10-ROOKIE CARD 6-1
Silver Slugger and Rookie Card should dictate this allowance sprint from inside-outside speed. The class drop for Silver Slugger not as big as it might seem exiting a very weak renewal of G3 Nerud. Horse-for-course Pentathlon has excuses and better than last 2.
RACE 6
6-NITROGEN 1-1
1-AL JAFARA 6-1
2-MAY DAY DREADY 9-2
5-OPULENT RESTRAINT 8-1
Nitrogen continues in raging good form and there’s simply not a good alternative here that demands you try to stop her from winning 5 in a row. Logical single in multi-race bets and one of more unattractive betting races for me on the card.
RACE 7
2-CRAZY MASON 9-2
6-MULLIKIN 2-1
4-NAKATOMI 4-1
5-BOOK’EM DANNO 5-2
He hasn’t beaten horses like these before, but the cannon Crazy Mason has been shot out of in his last 3 starts has been something to behold. A strong pace here and modest field size means he could get the trip for another eye-popping blitz. Respect favorites, too.
RACE 8
2-WHITE ABARRIO 9-5
4-JUST A TOUCH 4-1
1-FIERCENESS 1-1
5-RAGING TORRENT 5-1
Fierceness was too workmanlike last time to give me strong vibes into the Met Mile, something that hasn’t been the case for White Abarrio. We know how sharp he is. Just a Touch is sitting on a big race as well. I’ll use those 2 and try to beat Spa-loving favorite.
RACE 9
5-ARZAK 8-1
4-MY BOY PRINCE 10-1
2-THINK BIG 6-5
8-AG BULLET 7-2
Think Big won all 4 turf sprints, but jockey Curtis may get stuck inside over a course he doesn’t ride; you can’t keep turf-sprinting without incident. At short price, shop. Arzak 2nd to Cogburn’s world record in ’24 Jaipur. Same form cycle. ‘Prince very game win last.
RACE 10
10-THIRTEEN COLONIES 20-1
1-ZULU KINGDOM 6-5
4-FLYING MOHAWK 9-2
7-MI BAGO 6-1
Big step in class for Keeneland turf maiden breaker Thirteen Colonies, but he was so very impressive and this aggressive placement is exciting. Zulu Kingdom is obviously the 1 to beat and try to hook this price win play up & down the trifectas with the fav.
RACE 11
9-NEOEQUOUS 10-1
8-GUNMETAL 8-1
10-CHANCER McPATRICK 4-1
1-BIG TRUZZ 10-1
Neoequous answered every call as they tried to stretch him to the Derby, leading at CD when straightened for home. Cuts back to what he should relish. Gunmetal stakes-hinting since debut and highly talented – as is Big Truzz. Chancer McP loves Spa, 1-turn.
RACE 12
5-DETERMINISTIC 9-2
9-FAR BRIDGE 3-1
6-SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS 5-2
3-HIGHWAY ROBBER 6-1
Turf Classic at CD was too much of a melee to trust, so I’ll look elsewhere from its alumni. Deterministic may control this pace and pairs beautifully with speed jockey Carmouche. Far Bridge relishes distance more than some of the others here. Clement exacta?
RACE 13
7-JOURNALISM 8-5
6-BAEZA 4-1
2-SOVEREIGNTY 2-1
8-HEART OF HONOR 30-1
No horse has had a better Triple Crown trail and season than Journalism, whose video training demeanor indicates he’s continuing to thrive. He's a furious finisher and will have to be to fend off highly respected Baeza and Sovereignty.
RACE 14
8-SMOOTH BREEZE 9-2
3-TIZ DASHING 10-1
4-DEUTERONOMY 5-1
2-TARAJ 7-2
Smooth Breeze a different level adding Lasix last time and removing blinkers; can wheel right back at fair price in competitive heat. Tiz Dashing better than blanket finish last time when pace was too slow for anyone’s good. Drawn well & new rider may be aggressive.