JP's Picks for $237K Pick 6 Carryover Thursday at Keeneland
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 26, 2023
What to Watch for Today: A massive $237,537 pick 6 carryover spices up things today in Races 4-9. Trainer Brad Cox has starters in 5 races today as he puts on a full-court press toward winning the Fall Meet title. Among those are two morning line favorites and three second choices in the line. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 5,7,9.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cloudy skies and temps in the mid-70s are in the forecast.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in the early pick 5 opener. Favorites are a strong 11-24 in claiming races at the current meet, but we’ve also popped 5 different $20-plus winners – so it’s all or nothing. Churchill preppers account for 10 wins, Ellis 4 and Horseshoe Indianapolis 3. B Sudd is the lone Churchill rep here and he’s by solid Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed and has a couple of solid local efforts on the resume. Power Seeker is a local winner at this distance, but it was his only career start nearly 1 full year ago. He’ll try to get a potentially big day started for Brad Cox. Dark Vector is another with solid local form and serious threat as the morning-line favorite. Six of the 7 claiming races this meet at 6-1/2 furlongs were won by the half-miler leader.
2nd Race
Maiden claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs as the early pick 4 begins. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). That’s good news for Harbour Bridge and Showdown King. Note that Showdown King’s last effort at CD was behind Single Dot Yaht, who returned here Oct. 21 to win a maiden special weight as the favorite. Nine of 12 MCL sprint winners this meet were within 2 lengths after the opening half-mile, with experienced horses owning a 10-2 edge over rookies. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito (Be There) looks for his first Keeneland win since the 2020 Fall Meet when winning a similar MCL over 6-1/2 furlongs (last prior win was 2017 Spring). It’s great to see him back with a legit race contender here.
3rd Race
Allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are a representative 6-16 in dirt ALW races this Fall Meet with an average winner around 5.5-to-1. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled at the top with 6 and 5 wins, respectively. Only 1 of 9 dirt ALW sprints has been own by the half-mile leader, but 8 of 9 were within 2 lengths at that juncture. Olga Isabel is 6-5 on the morning line, pure speed and figures to be a very short price. Cox is 37-63 at Keeneland with favorites at 6-5 or less (59% wins), 10% more reliable than all such runners at those prices for other barns. Her jockey Tyler Gaffalione wins 40% in short-field 6-1/2 furlongs sprints like this with 6 or fewer starters on the Kee dirt. Tough to get past this chalk even if Your So Sillea has excellent local form and a very good second to the talented Tarabi here in the Spring Meet.
4th Race
Two-year-old maidens open the pick 6 over 7 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Guest of Honor debuts for Brad Cox, who entered closing week with a trio of 2YO MSW wins (2 with rookies), most of any barn. Guest of Honor is by strong Kee dirt influence Honor Code. Up on the Edge was cross-entered Wednesday in a similar race. The CD set here includes Up on the Edge Princess Is Olivia and Classy’n Connected as viable options. All 4 2YO 7F MSW winners this meet were within 1-3/4 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average just a neck off the pace at that point).
5th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick Three starts with an elder turf mile maiden special weight, which also is the opening leg of the late pick 5. We’ve only had 2 such races at the current meet through the first 3 weeks, but 47 of them in the database. Favorites are a woeful 11 for 47 with an average winner about 5.5-to-1. Kentucky Downs holds a 16-13 prep locale edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) … but neither circuit is represented here by a serious contender. Only 1 rookie has succeeded like well-bred Mirari and Lady Tremaine attempt. Only 1 of 9 turf mile winners so far this meet was on the lead after the first half-mile, the average winner almost 2-1/2 lengths back at that point.
6th Race
The late pick 4 kickoff is a maiden claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). That’s good news for Aspiriing Comedian, Metronome and Mor Jazz from the main body of the field. Metronome is by strong Kee dirt sire Cairo Prince, as is Prince is My Boy. Closers have ruled the dirt MCL routes at the meet, 4 of 5 racing between 3 and 6 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Horses stretching out of 1-turn races (3 of them at a mile, including Ellis’ miles as “1-turn”) have had great success this season at this class/trip. Eight of these 12 exit 1-turn races worth extra consideration. We’ve talked a lot this meet about Brad Cox’s success in 1-1/16 miles races; he’ll have Mena on the stretch out and class drop as the one to beat.
7th Race
The Thursday feature race is a 1-1/16 miles allowance on grass that serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Favorites are 10-17 in turf allowance races this meet coming into closing week with 14 winners at 4-1 or less odds. Kentucky Downs has dominated with 8 winners (no other circuit more than 2). That’s a plus for KD alumni Tough Little Nut, Blue Eyed George, Baytown Pafrait, Good Bali and Please Advse. Tough Little Nut and Please Advise both drop out of stakes placings and should be very tough here. All 6 winners of the 1-1/16 miles ALW races this meet were between 2 and 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Look for finishers. When looking at 2YO turf ALW routes in Fall Meets, we’ve had 10 of these over the years with 8 of the winners coming out of races at 7 furlongs or longer. Chris Block (Tough Little Nut) is the only trainer in the field to have a win in a 2YO ALW route on turf at Kee.
8th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 7 furlongs in this one. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. The CD set here includes only Warp Nine and No Judgement, the latter most appealing. No Judgment ran third at CD in his first try vs. a next-out Kee ALW winner and next-out Kee MSW winner. Rookies are highlighted by good Kee dirt sire Curlin’s colt Rocketeer for a Brad Cox barn that’s already won 3 MSW 2YO races at the meet. Cox also has Charleston in a debut effort. Melee is a firster by Street Sense, who has sired 4 winners on dirt at the current meet (plus one on turf). All 4 2YO 7F MSW winners this meet were within 1-3/4 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average just a neck off the pace at that point).
9th Race
Allowance turf sprinters match up in the finale to the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Because of the rail position, this race will be restricted to 10 runners. The inside-outside posts aren’t nearly as disadvantaged with this configuration as the capacity 12-horse fields. Eight of 11 turf sprint winners this meet closed more than 2 lengths after the first half-mile, average just under 3 lengths back at that stage. Kentucky Downs preppers have 4 of the wins, no other circuit more than 1. Wesley Ward, runaway leading trainer here in turf sprints historically, has been shut out the first 3 weeks of the meet in this category and makes a unique entry here with Chilean export Jefe de Obra. Pedigree players note Vocalize is out of the mare Harmonize, winner of the Jessamine Stakes here at Keeneland on turf. Flavien Prat has a meet-best 3 turf sprint wins and partners with Trust Daddy.