JP's Keeneland Sunday Final Picks After Scratches

Two of my 3 key plays on the card scratched Saturday (the survivor ran third at 30-1), and unfortunately the same thing happened this morning when Miss Tifeye came out of Sunday’s Race 2 and World Record scratched from Race 5. My key 15-1 ML play Rather Distinct in Race 3 remains the big one today, while Race 6 Like a Saltshaker moves into that second slot of keys.

I see a chalky finish to the card in the final 2 stakes, so we’ll try to make hay before that and coast into Week 2.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 6, 2024                                         

What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Weekend wraps with a 10-race card that features the Grade 1 Spinster and reigning champion older mare Idiomatic. The supporting stakes include the Bourbon on turf for 2-year-olds as well as Indian Summer for 2-year-old turf sprint fillies. Trainers Cherie DeVaux and Chad Brown are coming off big Saturdays, as are jockeys Jose Ortiz, Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez (each rider winning 3 times Saturday). *** Due to a technical error, my stats & trends today will be replaced by comments on my selections in the race-by-race analysis.*** 

Races 5,8,10  make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: The forecast continue to shine with sunny skies and temps in the mid-80s. Expect fast and firm conditions.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Sound of Victory can take advantage of the inside draw and aggressive early nature of jockey Florent Geroux to get right into the mix from the start. Anchises is the 9-5 morning line favorite, but was defeated at 3-5 at Gulfstream when already trying the bottom maiden claiming level and has no advantages. The scratch of Anglican eases this difficulty.

2nd Race

Give the edge to Wherever We Are, a first-timer for trainer Wesley Ward, who won this a similar MCL 2YO rookie on Saturday. The scratch of Miss Tifeye did the Ward rookie a favor.

3rd Race

Don't think we'll get 15-1 morning line price on Rather Distinct off a debut third at Ellis that gave her no pace help. The Justify offspring really take to this turf course and Eddie Kenneally had a sharp maiden runner-up at a price here Saturday. I'll be playing her straight up and in exotics with Bembridge Ledge, Good Long Cry and Golden Sunshine. 

4th Race

Trainer Brian Lynch popped a nice winner in the Saturday finale and can wheel right back here with rookie Tremendously. I love that this $300,000 sales buy is by a $10K stallion, meaning that he really showed off at the training sale in March and is ready-made. Bullet workout and John Velazquez is a great sign. Top pick in a tough race. Good options about in this race, so rookie Sir Gallivant is respected by 27% Kee dirt sire Practical Joke for Brad Cox. Red-hot Cherie VeVaux barn must be respected with rookie Cromwell.

5th Race

World Record scratching really wrecked my multi-race strategies. Spirit's Mischief makes a lot of sense now for a Ward barn poised for a big day. Don’t sleep on longshot 20-1 ML runner Horsepower - Paco Lopez and Joe Orseno are aces in turf sprints. Run Carson and Joe Shiesty are in the mix for exotics.

6th Race

Like a Saltshaker won a very similar starter allowance here during the '23 Fall Meet and has held solid form. High-percentage Chicago trainer Brittany Vanden Berg has a won machine with this 15-36 runner. Anything near 8-1 morning line would be absolutely delicious. Spycraft is in great form and a big threat. Those are the two I'll focus on in this spot.

7th Race

Built was 3-1 in his debut at Ellis Park when he finished a distant third, but note the winner turned out to be Saturday's runaway Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity winner East Avenue. Built has a bullet workout since and now some experience edge over a very promising group of 2-year-old rookies. He's my play. Tuscaloosa, Dr. Saikali, Wise Decision, and the red-hot Cherie DeVaux barn's Tavern Time all merit much respect. 

8th Race

Expected favorite Dreamaway opted to run Saturday in California instead, leaving some void in the Indian Summer Stakes field. Wesley Ward stablemates Pharoah's Dynasty and Floodlites are capable of carrying the baton. Love the post draw in this turf sprint for Pharoah's Dynasty, as well as the starting spot for Out on Bail. Plenty of respect for Governor Sam, so there are 4 quality options here in the multi-race bets and the exotics.

9th Race

Trainer Brad Cox said this week that defending Spinster champ Idiomatic is every bit as good this year as she was last year, but my handicapping eyes challenge that statement. Regardless who's right, she's still awfully good and doesn't catch a field with another A-list challenger on Sunday. Her Personal Ensign rival Raging Sea will contest the same-day Beldame in New York, leaving the Spinster all for Idiomatic's taking. With her natural speed, I'll expect the chasers to get discouraged and late-running Candied, an Alcibiades winner over this track, to pick up the bottom of the exacta.

10th Race

We wrap Fall Stars Weekend with the Bourbon Stakes, where Warlander could get a superb trip from an inner post and give trainer Steve Asmussen a stakes follow-up to Saturday's TCA winner Zeitlos. Jose Ortiz won 3 races Saturday and should give this Kitten's Joy colt every chance. Respect Godolphin's Cavallo Bay as the big blue ownership group goes for a third 2YO stakes win of the weekend (Alcibiades, Breeders' Futurity already in tow). That one goes for Charlie Appleby, while uncoupled stablemate Siesta Key is saddle by Brad Cox. That threesome looks formidable in a race that I don't expect to produce big prices.