JP's Keeneland Final Picks After Scratches | Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Scratches in Races 4 and 8 caused minor adjustments for horses underneath the existing top picks.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 5, 2024                                       

What to Watch for Today: My 33rd consecutive racing meet at Keeneland kicks off with a 10-race card that features the Grade 3 Phoenix for sprinters, the Grade 2 Jessamine for 2-year-old turf fillies and the Grade 1 Alcibiades for 2-year-old fillies on dirt. Note that favorites were only 6-31 during Fall Stars Weekend last autumn with 8 winners paying a $20+ win mutuel.

Races 5,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 on opening day. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temps in the low 80s are forecasted as fast and firm track and course conditions are expected.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).                                              

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers open the meet and the early pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Favorites hit 39% in Fall dirt route N2L claimers from 38 such events with an average winner 4-1 odds. Churchill-prepped winners hold a 14-5 wins edge over Ellis & Horsehoe Indianapolis. Don’t stray too far from the front; 26 of 38 winners were within 2 lengths after the opening half-mile (avg. winner 1-1/2 lengths back at that point). Only 9 of 38 exited a sprint prep. Ask Arthur exits a Churchill route, as do Bernin Hot and Parkway. Of that trio, Bernin Hot appears to have the most tactical speed to fit the profile best, and he’s also got a decent race over the Keeneland track, which never hurts.

2nd Race

The early pick 4 starts with a turf mile maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. With 77 such 2YO turf MSW routes in the database, it’s been bombs away with an average winner more than 9-1 odds. Favorites are 22-77 (29%), including 0-for-8 during the ’23 Fall Meet, so feel free to shop. About two-thirds of the winners exited turf preps, but don’t overemphasize the distance of that prior outing based no past results. Circuits producing winners in these races have been fairly evenly distributed: 19 Kentucky Downs, 14 NYRA (Saratoga/Belmont/Aqueduct), 13 Churchill. First-time starters have won 16, so it’s a 4-1 advantage in terms of experienced horses over rookies. Stakes-experienced class droppers Test Score and West Beach are the logical plays, but in a race for price shoppers, Major Mischief intrigues at a price based on pedigree and projected second-start improvement after trouble and a bullet work in the interim. He’s by 19% Kee turf route sire and positive ROI producer Into Mischief (as is rookie Scorpius).

3rd Race

Elder maiden special weights sprint 7 furlongs in this one. Horses exiting 1-turn miles have accounted for 5 of the 11 races over this distance/age/class in past Fall Meets. Only 1 of those 11 winner closed more than 2-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile with an average winner just three-quarters of a length off the pace at that point. Churchill preppers have dominated the 57 elder dirt MSWs in Fall Meets, winning 24 (NYRA next-best with 11 winners; only 4 first-time starters – none at 7F). But with little CD influence here, NYRA may rule the roost. This has not been a good spot for horses coming off extended layoffs like several of these away since July or longer. Lord I Wonder exits an August pseudo 1-turn mile at Saratoga, as does Islander, and I like the fit of both of those. Jockeys Prat and Saez have both been exceptional 20%-plus in Kee 7F sprints. If you are looking at a layoff runner, Upon a Star returns from February for Brad Cox, whose 5 wins in elder Fall Meet MSW races are most of any trainer.

4th Race

Two-year-old entry-level (N1X) allowance foes match up over 6 furlongs. Since 2019, we’ve had 25 dirt allowances for 2YOs in Fall Meets, favorites underperforming with 7 wins (28%) while 6 winners paid $20+ win mutuels. The average winner stands at a juicy 6-1 price. Churchill preppers own 9 wins, outpacing 4 at Kentucky Downs and 3 each from Monmouth and NYRA. Empirical Mischief, Eclatant and Baytown Butterfly are the CD preppers here. Eclatant figures to be solidly favored for Brad Cox, whose 4 ALW wins by 2YOs on dirt in Fall are most of any trainer (Pletcher’s 2 the only other trainer with multiples). And note 3 of 4 Cox wins in these spots have come with horses off 6 weeks or more like the June comebacker Eclatant. He looks strong even in a profile that calls for upsets. Tapit First won a baby dash here in the Spring Meet, but note ran only the 7th-fastest of 9 such races at the meet and hasn’t run since. Of the 7 such races run here in Fall Meets at this 6F sprint trip, all 7 winners prepped at 6-1/2 furlongs or shorter, which plays against the cut-0back of Pocahontas Stakes alumna Empirical Mischief.

5th Race

The pick 6 opener is a mile and one-eighth allowance on grass, which also kicks off the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Turf route ALW races are Kee Fall regulars with 277 of them in our database since 2006. Only 28% winning favorites and an average winner at 6-1 odds make them tempting places to explore prices. Kentucky Downs preppers have been dynamos with 23 wins in the 48 such offerings over the past 3 Fall Meets (next Saratoga 6, Churchill 5). Four of the dozen entered come via KD: Sanctify, Stylish Sue, Olivia Maralda and Excellent Question. Excellent Question was a Kee winner here in the Spring Meet, while Olivia Maralda was a good runner-up. The race runs through that pair with elite riders Prat and Gaffalione assigned. Let price be your guide and swing for the higher of this duo.

6th Race

The late pick 5 begins with a 7-furlong entry-level (N1X) allowance. We’ve had 27 such N1X ALW sprints at 7F in Fall Meets. NYRA invaders have been strong here with an 11-10 edge in wins over Churchill, significant given the disparity in number of starters. Saratoga-prepped Montalcino, Notah and Banned for Life garner extra eyeballs for that factor. Of the 27 past winners, 26 had a start since July (something 3 horses in this race will try to buck), while 24 exited dirt preps. There’s been no edge to extending distance or cutting back in trip. If you eliminate the layoff horses and the surface changers, you’ve eliminated 5 of the 10 possibilities and still have those trio of Saratoga performers in the mix. Montalcino and Banned for Life were highly impressive at the Spa and you have to beat them to win this.

7th Race

Our first stakes of the meet, the Grade 3 Phoenix, opens the late pick 4. In the 10 editions of the Phoenix since returning to dirt in 2014, favorites account for 6 wins and 7 of the winners have been 3-1 or less. It’s been a formful race, save for Manny Wah’s 17-1 upset in 2022. He’s back, now age 8, but has lost all 12 starts since (including a 7th in this race last year). Nakatomi projects to be the Phoenix favorite off his G1 Vanderbilt win at Saratoga, and his 5: 3-1-0 Keeneland record includes a narrow runner-up in this race last year. You know he fits for Wesley Ward and Tyler Gaffalione, perennial Keeneland title chasers. Saratoga preppers have doubled up Churchill preppers 4-2 in wins over the last 10 editions. That’s good news for Nakatomi, as well as Brad Cox-trained Spa speedball Federal Judge. The field also includes 20-2023 local Commonwealth Stakes winner Here Mi Song, a real horse-for-course. This race looks pretty straightforward among the Spa pair and Here Mi Song.

8th Race

The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 middle leg is the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes. The Churchill September meeting has produced 3 of the last 4 winners of this race, including Buchu a year ago, but with no turf races in Louisville this September, that cast is noticeably absent. NYRA has produced 10 of the 18 Jessamine winners in our database going back to 2006, which puts PG Johnson Stakes winner Totally Justified in the Saratoga spotlight (also-eligible Virgin Colada, just behind Totally Justified at Saratoga, merits serious attention if she can draw into the field as would also-eligible She’s Got Will). Surprisingly, Kentucky Downs produced only 1 of 18 winners (in 2012, no less). Only 4 of the 18 Jessamine database winners were forwardly placed with an average winner nearly 5 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Patience has paid off. Only 4 of 18 winners stretched out from a 7F or shorter sprint, something five of this dozen attempt.

9th Race

Friday’s feature is the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes, where 6 straight winners have been 4-1 or less odds (3 favorites during that span). The Saratoga meet has provided 5 of those last 6 victories and is responsible for 5 of the 8 entries in this field. Only 2 of 10 since returning dirt have been won by the half-mile leader, but note 7 winners were between 1 and 3-1/2 lengths of the lead at that juncture. The presser has been most formidable. Trainer Mark Casse is a 4-time Alcibiades winner and seeks 5 with Saratoga’s Spinaway third-place finisher Sherbini. She’ll rematch with Immersive for Brad Cox, who won this race in 2019 and 2021, as well as Quietside, whose sire Malibu Moon was responsible for 2017 Alcibiades winner Heavenly Rose. The Spinaway rematch likely comes on a fast track after these fillies battled a wet track in Saratoga Springs. Immersive galloped out far superior to the other pair if trying to project more distance and has the better route pedigree of those as well. The Queens M G, whose 45-1 upset here in April provided the highest payoff in a Keeneland Spring Meet baby dash since our database began in ’07.

10th Race

We wrap the card, multi-race wagers and Keeneland Turf Pick 3 with this allowance turf sprint. Power posts 3-4-5 account for 43% of the wins in Keeneland's non-stakes turf sprints with 12 or more starters at average odds right around 10-1. That’s significant when only accounting for just under 25% of the field sizes. Moonlit Lady, Tambo and Share the Blessing are in those PP barring scratches and deserve extra looks. We’ve had 45 Fall Meet turf sprint ALW races since 2011, producing 14 winners at $20-plus mutuels and an average winner at 9-1. Kentucky Downs accounts for 15 of those 45 winners (no other circuit more than 4). Amidst Waves is the lone KD rep here and notably was a nose runner-up here last fall in the Indian Summer Stakes. Baraye is a course winner for Wesley Ward, whose 8 Fall Meet turf sprint ALW winners dwarf the competition (Maker next-best with 3). Just under a third of the winners lead after the first half-mile with the average winner about 2-1/2 lengths back at that juncture.