JP's Final Thursday Keeneland Picks & Analysis
No important scratches to our picks for today, so we’re good to go. Favorites won 5 of 8 yesterday (7 winners were 5-2 or less), and you don’t expect that to continue. However, several of the race types/distances/situations today have profiles that skew to more than 40% winning favorites historically in Kee Fall Meets. I’ll look for Run Jalen Run in Race 3 to key my day near the front throughout; Chasing the Crown in Race 8 to get the last surge on turf; and Fayette Spirit in Race 10 as the longshot who could be forward throughout in a slow-paced turfer.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 10, 2024
What to Watch for Today: The card expands back out to 10 races after an 8-race Wednesday lineup. Saratoga’s Grade 2 Amsterdam winner World Record drops into a Race 9 allowance sprint, where he’ll meet Santa Anita’s Grade 2 San Vicente third-place finisher Slider on a neutral site.
Races 5,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Fast and firm in the forecast with sunny skies in the mid-70s projected.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers open the early pick 5 in a 7-furlong sprint. We’ve had 64 N2L claiming sprints in Fall Meets on dirt with 36% winning favorites and an average winner of 5.5-1 odds. Churchill-prepped horses won 4 of 7 such races at the ’23 Fall Meet and have a strong 22 overall wins compared to no more than 5 for any other circuit. Gamblers Tail, Zeca Diabo, Flat On and Triple Trea represent CD in this lineup. Don’t be afraid of a surface change at the distance/class as 8 of 20 N2L CLM 7F sprints were won by horses exiting turf or synthetic races like Halmstad tries. His trainer Joe Sharp won with 2 of starters opening week at Keeneland at 9-2 and 6-1 prices.
2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters go 6 furlongs in the early pick 4 kickoff. All 3 juvenile dirt MSW races opening weekend were won by well-backed, but non-favorites (2-1, 5-2, 3-1). Two of those winners were via Ellis Park, the other from Saratoga. Red-hot first-crop sire Vekoma had CK Wonder win one of them on Sunday and will be represented here by rookie Autumn Rhythm. Wayne Catalano had one of those winners with Built and tries to double down with Sweet Music. Riley Mott pulled off a 50-1 upset on turf with a 2YO MSW opening weekend and will send out Decree. In 52 juvenile MSW dirt sprints at 6F during Fall Meets, favorites win a strong 46%. First-time starters have won 25 of those 52, so experience is much less important here than the 7F races we saw opening weekend.
3rd Race
Starter allowance sprinters match up over 7 furlongs in this one. Favorites are 0-10 with an average winner at 10-1 odds in Fall Meet starter allowance races at 7F. Early speed has been key with 8 of 10 winners within 1-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile. Four winners came off dirt races at Churchill, but 5 winners made surface changes from turf or synthetic. Seven were adding distance from their most recent start. Run Jalen Run looks best-equipped to show early speed in this field and his trainer Joe Sharp went 2-for-3 opening weekend with limited chances. Run Jalen Run and Googol Joke both have run well over the Keeneland track in a race that lacks local experience.
4th Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 7 furlongs. We’ve had 28 such races during Fall Meets, and the average winner is a very slim 3-1 price. Favorites have won 41%. Trainer Eddie Kenneally (Deputy Mischief) has a win and a second from just 3 starters in similar Fall races to this. Only 1 first-time starter won of those 28 races, while MCL preppers won 14 and MSW droppers won 13. About one-third of the winners made turf-to-dirt surface changes changes Aint No Joke attempts. He’s by exceptional Kee dirt sire Practical Joke. There has been no edge in terms of final prep distance.
5th Race
This entry-level (N1X) allowance route on grass starts the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and today’s pick 6. Kentucky Downs and Saratoga preppers split the 2 turf route ALW races opening weekend, including a 6-1 victor for Joe Sharp, who sends out For Love and Honor here. Only 2 of 9 opening weekend turf routes were won on the front end, though the average winner was a stalking 3 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Brendan Walsh has won 5 of these N1X turf route ALW races in Fall Meets since 2018 and looks for more with Minoushka. Favorites are a rock-solid 11-26 at this class and distance in Fall Meets. On paper, I like Ragtime Lady with an upset shot, but trainer Tom Amoss hasn’t won a Kee turf since 2013, so I’ll use this horse underneath in exotics.
6th Race
The late pick 5 launches with this non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claiming sprint at 7 furlongs. It’s the same type as Race 1 today, but for fillies and mares. We’ve had 64 N2L claiming sprints in Fall Meets on dirt with 36% winning favorites and an average winner of 5.5-1 odds. Churchill-prepped horses won 4 of 7 such races at the ’23 Fall Meet and have a strong 22 overall wins compared to no more than 5 for any other circuit. But the CD cast here doesn’t inpire on paper, namely These Apples, Leametatrainer, and Mustang Lady. In N2L claimers, Sarir has the lone Kee dirt win in the field. Don’t be afraid of a surface change at the distance/class as 8 of 20 N2L CLM 7F sprints were won by horses exiting turf or synthetic races like Claret Beret, Sarir and Belle Cherie attempt. I like to lean on horses with the best maiden wins, and here they belong to Catching Heat, Sarir and Belle Cherie.
7th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the late pick 4. We don’t get as many of these as we once did, typically 6-7 a meet has shrunken to 2-3 per meet in recent years. But we have 50 in the database and they’re quite formful. Favorites win 46% with an average winner 7-2, one of the chalkier profiles at Keeneland. Churchill preppers have a massive 24-8 edge on NYRA (Sar/Bel) in terms of winners and only 3 first-time starters have scored. Don’t over-emphasize the distance of the most recent start, it’s nearly equal between those with a route prep and those without, 26-24 in favor. Look for horses with some tactical ability. About 85% of the winners in these races are within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 1-3/4 lengths back at that point). From a pedigree standpoint, redhot first-crop sire Vekoma has Geez Eloise on the stretchout. And note Pretty Tapit’s sire Tapit has had 4 Kee 2YO MSW route winners, most of any sire, including 1 as a first-time starter like this filly. Note that Trading Strategy’s debut fourth came behind La Cara, who since returned to win Churchill Downs’ Pocahontas Stakes.
8th Race
The middle leg of today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is a turf route allowance at 1-1/16 miles. Kentucky Downs and Saratoga preppers split the 2 turf route ALW races opening weekend. Only 2 of 9 opening weekend turf routes were won on the front end, though the average winner was a stalking 3 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Trainer Graham Motion has more Kee Fall turf route ALW wins (25) than any other current trainer and sends out English Bee, while Mike Maker (21) is next-best and counters with Chasing the Crown. The Todd Pletcher-trained Major Dude exits a Fourstardave Stakes at Saratoga in which 1-2 finishers Carl Spackler and More Than Looks returned to run 1-2 here in Saturday’s $1.25M Coolmore Turf Mile.
9th Race
Thursday’s co-feature is a second-level (N2X) allowance sprint at 6 furlongs on dirt. All 3 dirt allowance sprints opening week were formful affairs (favorites winning 2) with 1-2, 6-5 and 2-1 winning odds. We’ve had 41 such Fall Meet 6F dirt ALW races and the average winner is only a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. World Record, the expected favorite, scratched out of a Sunday turf sprint in favor of this spot – as did Baxley. Note only 2 of the 41 Fall Meet 6F ALW races were won by horses off the length of layoffs on display here by Whatchatalkinabout and Slider.
10th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 finale is a 1-1/8 miles maiden special weight for older horses. We have 49 elder MSW turf routes in the database, and favorites have underperformed at 26%. The average winner has been 5.5-to-1. Kentucky Downs preppers have a 17-13 edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel). Trainers Graham Motion (Eternal Mischief) and Shug McGaughey (The Jackal) are among the tops in these races with 4 Fall Meet wins each over the years. Look for horses with some tactical speed. In the 11 such races for this age/class/distance in Fall Meets, no winner has been more than 5 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile and the average winner has been 2 lengths back at that juncture.