JP's Final Keeneland Thursday Update

No scratches of my plays on Thursday, which hopefully is the first sign of better times today than yesterday when we had a rough go of it in the handicapping ranks. Key plays today come in Races 5-6-7 (all in the $18,890 pick 6 carryover races).

No Tyler Gaffalione again today as the leading rider sits out a HISA whip strikes count violation. Eight jockeys won the 8 races Wednesday in his absence; Tyler returns Friday.

eremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 17, 2024                                         

What to Watch for Today: Four allowance races share the marquee on a 9-race card, putting Race 5 as the swing race in the early and late pick 5. Spend extra time working on that one. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is scheduled off for the straight day and will return to action Friday.

Races 4,6,8 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies with temps climbing back into the low 60s are in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).                                             

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Starter allowance sprinters go 7 furlongs as the pick 5 commences. We’ve had 41 STR ALW sprints in Fall Meets, including 4 already this season. Favorites underperform at 25% (1-4 this meet on that mark, too) with an average winner just under 6-1. These have been very good betting races with only 1 winner topping 15-1. Churchill preppers have won 19 of 41 (no other circuit more than 4). 11 of 41 winners made surface switches from turf or synthetic, creating a solid lean to dirt. Blake James, Count the Brave and Gardiner are the CD reps here to consider. Trainer Joe Sharp won a similar race here earlier this meet at 8-1 and looks for another with Gardiner.

2nd Race

The early pick 4 opener is a maiden claiming dirt route for older horses. In 78 overall MCL dirt routes in Fall Meets, 60 of the winners were within 3-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average less than 2 lengths back at that stage).. Churchill preppers have a big 32-9 edge over Kentucky Downs in terms of last starts by winners. Trainer Brad Cox’s 7 winners in these races are second-most to Kenny McPeek’s 10, and he’ll send out Colonial Rose. McPeek counters with Political Spin. Posts 1-2 account for 21 of 61 MCL Fall routes at this 1-1/16 miles trip with a short run to the first turn. And when you consider Brad Cox is 44% winner with 1-1/16 miles Kee dirt favorites over the past decade, it’s hard to look past Colonial Rose as the chalk. Longshot Cat’s Symphony intrigues for the exotics.

3rd Race

Similar to Race 1, we’ve got a starter allowance sprint, this time at 6-1/2 furlongs. We’ve had 41 STR ALW sprints in Fall Meets, including 4 already this season. Favorites underperform at 25% (1-4 this meet on that mark, too) with an average winner just under 6-1. These have been very good betting races with only 1 winner topping 15-1. Churchill preppers have won 19 of 41 (no other circuit more than 4). Seven of the 9 entrants hail from CD, so little help there. None of these have won at Keeneland from only 4 combined local dirt tries. High Fashion Kate was third here in Spring ’24 in a similar spot. Morning line favorite Wailu is a good class fit having only once entered and won for the $30K level. Pace presence Lil Gin N Class exits a second at Churchill that should match up very well here.

4th Race

The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and the pick 6 begin with a third-level (N3X) allowance route on grass. Race 8 today will be a split division. Favorites are 5-9 in turf route ALW races through the first 2 weeks of the current Fall Meet with an average winner just 5-2 odds (none over 6-1). Only 1 of 9 winners scored on the front end, while the average winner has been more than 4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Saratoga has produced 4 of the winners, Kentucky Downs 3. Justifiable Belle looks to be a legit favorite with a good draw and win over the course in April. She’s one of several Justify offspring who’ve taken a shine to this turf course at Kee. Trainers Joe Sharp (Lucky Speech) and Brendan Walsh (Bolivie) each have a win at the meet in the turf route ALW ranks. Jose Ortiz has ridden 3 turf route ALW winners at the meet and picks up Argentine Group 1 winner Nanda Dea in her US debut for Ignacio Correas.

5th Race

This swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a 7-furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. The first trio of this meet were won at 2-1, 5-2 and 3-1 shots despite none being favored. While it’s been an even pull 18 wins each from Churchill preppers and first-time starters in 47 previous races at the age/class/distance, Ellis Park already has popped a pair of winners this meet. The average winner is 1-1/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 3 of 47 winners closing more than 5 lengths from that point in the race. Brad Cox has 8 wins with Kee 2YOs going 7F, most of any trainer, and sends out rookie Uncle Jim. Rodolphe Brisset’s barn is a sharp 4-12 in these spots and his on fire at the meet and counters with Speechless. Those will be my focal points.

6th Race

The second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and opening leg of today’s late pick 4 is a turf allowance sprint. In full-field turf sprints, power posts 3-4-5 long have been a profitable and strong betting angle. But when you reduce the field size to even 10 like this, those edges dissipate. Posts 1-2 are equally as effective with less bulk in the field tightening up things on the hedge. The 6 turf sprints so far this meet have averaged a 9-2 payout with no winners above 9-1. Four of the winners exited NYRA preps. Trainers Greg Foley (B D Valeski) and Joe Sharp (Linzer, Gilded Ruler) have had success in Fall Meet turf sprint ALW races with multiple winners and positive ROIs. Eoin Harty has had a strong start to the Fall Meet with 2 turf winners and looks for another with Finster, who will be my top pick.

7th Race

Entry-level (N1X) allowance runners stretch out to 1-1/8 miles on dirt in this one. We’ve seen 16 of these in previous Fall Meets with 5 winning favorites and an average winner at 8-1 odds. The average winner is 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile – note only 1 winner led at that point and only 1 winner was more than 5 lengths back at that point. It’s a press/stalk race. Sire Curlin’s 10 wins in Kee 9F dirt races is matched only by Tapit and its Curlin represented by longshot upset pick Arijana’s Pearl. She’s vastly improved since her appearance here last year. It’s a tough race for me to take a short price on morning line favorite Union Mist, who needed 10 tries to break her maiden, but certainly did improve when hot-training Brendan Walsh added blinkers.

8th Race

This third-level (N3X) allowance route on grass is a split division of Race 4 and serves as final leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Favorites are 5-9 in turf route ALW races through the first 2 weeks of the current Fall Meet with an average winner just 5-2 odds (none over 6-1). Only 1 of 9 winners scored on the front end, while the average winner has been more than 4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Saratoga has produced 4 of the winners, Kentucky Downs 3. Saffron Moon is 2-for-2 over the course with a Fall ’23 and Spring ’22 set of wins. This will be the first start of the year for the Chard Brown trainee. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has a turf route ALW win at the meet and looks for more with Saratoga-prepped Blissful. Jose Ortiz, who has ridden 3 route ALW winners at the meet, has the call on Blissful.

9th Race

Let’s bid farewell with a 1-1/16 miles dirt maiden special weight for older horses. Of the 23 Fall route MSW for elder horses on dirt, all have been 8-1 or less odds and an average winner at 3-1 odds. Churchill preppers have a 12-6 edge over NYRA in terms of wins. Only 3 of 23 exited a sprint prep last out. A CD route alum is the fit, featuring Tis Charming, Tennessee Lamb, Duke of Duval, Can’t Stop Willis and Bourbon Society. Duke of Duval and Bourbon Society are most interesting of that group. The former adds blinkers, and the latter was a sharp second here vs. similar in the Spring Meet.