JP's Final Keeneland Thursday Thoughts After Scratches
Well, I didn’t like Race 1 at all in my early handicapping and 2 of my top 3 choices scratched, so it’s even less appealing. More budget for races we DO like. Keys today include a Race 5 longshot at 15-1 ML who exits a respected race at Kentucky Downs (#11 Golden Symphony); the 9 furlongs in Race 7 should absolutely be what #6 Snead wants in his second-off-the-layoff form cycle; and Race 8’s top pick #7 Bling is the day’s best bet with a hot pace to run down in a turf sprint under Irad. The turf sprints have been very good to us this meet — even if NOTHING was good to us yesterday. Onward and upward!
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 24, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Trainer Wesley Ward won the final 2 races on the Wednesday card and brings momentum into Day 15 of 17. Jockey Cristian Torres is off his mounts for the second straight day due to a family issue at home in Puerto Rico, DRF reports. Nine races await with Race 5 the swing race in the early and late pick 5.
No $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only 2 grass races. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies with temps in the upper 60s keep the fast-firm conditions rolling.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
The Thursday action, including the early pick 5, starts with a non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer going 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The 18 dirt CLM races during the first 3 weeks of this meet include 8 winning favorites (average winner 4-1 odds). Churchill preppers hold a 7-5 lead over NYRA (Sar/Aqu) and it’s been rather quiet elsewhere. Cumberland Fall’s maiden special weight victory at Monmouth is clearly the best maiden win on paper in a rather weak group. Tres Chic and Floris have the field’s only local wins, but the latter’s came all the way back in Fall 2021.
2nd Race
Kickoff time in the early pick 4 with this elder maiden claiming sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs. There have been 8 elder MCL races this meet so far, and while 3 favorites have won, the average winner has been just under 10-1 due to 3 payoffs of $40+ for $2 win bets. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has won 4 such races in past Fall Meets (7-18 in the exacta), second only to Kenny McPeek’s 5, and sends out Romantic Dancer. Trainers Caio Caramori (Evocation) and Grant Forster (Princess Pom Pom) have won similar races at midrange prices in the not-too-distant past.
3rd Race
Elder maiden special weights route 1-1/16 miles on the dirt. There have been 23 such 2YO MSW routes on dirt in Fall Meets overall, with an average winner at 3-1 odds (no winners over 8-1 odds). Favorites slightly underperform at 7-23. First-time starters have been blanked in those 23 races and note 20 of 23 winners prepped at a mile or farther. The only 8F+ preps here are Viable, Vino Frizzante and Save Time. Six of 28 winners navigated a turf-to-dirt move like Save Time bids, so that’s no issue, especially with 21% Kee dirt route sire Into Mischief in play. The favorite looks strong, Save Time, but Viable just may be … well … viable. Sires Tapit (Chstinabarcelona) and Curlin (Viable) account for 5 elder MSW route wins in past Kee Fall Meets.
4th Race
The pick 6 opening leg is a non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer going 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The 18 dirt CLM races during the first 3 weeks of this meet include 8 winning favorites (average winner 4-1 odds). Churchill preppers hold a 7-5 lead over NYRA (Sar/Aqu) and it’s been rather quiet elsewhere. Honor Cat has the best maiden win in this N2L field, scoring an Oaklawn maiden special weight. Mike Maker has 3 Fall N2L CLM route wins on dirt, tied for most of any trainer, and sends out Candy Doll, who is by Candy Ride, a fantastic 21% winning sire here in dirt routes from more than 100 starters.
5th Race
Today’s swing race in the early and late pick 5 starts the late sequence with a turf route maiden special weight for older horses. In 52 past Fall Meet elder turf MSW routes, 18 winners prepped at Kentucky Downs and 13 at NYRA (Sar/Bel). Favorites hit just under 30%, slightly underperforming, but the average winner is a solid 5-1, so there are good betting races. More than 80% exited turf preps and more than 80% exited preps at 1 mile or longer. Six from the main body fit that bill: Over the Ocean, Paris Surprise, Demetrius, Publicity, Golden Symphony and Caller. Of those, Golden Symphony interests me most after a spotty run at Kentucky Downs last out behind a winner who would run third in the Hawthorne Derby next. Caller also exits that same race.
6th Race
The late pick 4 joins the fray in this 2-year-old maiden special weight sprint at 6 furlongs. So far there have been 10 2YO MSW sprints on dirt at the Fall Meet. Favorites are 2-10, while 9 of 10 winners were 6-1 or less – good betting races. The average winner has been three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile, with no winner closing more than 4 lengths from that point. At all dirt distances, Churchill preppers have 7 of the 14 wins (3 first-time starters, all in sprints). But first-time starters hold a solid 46-34 edge over the CD experienced runners in terms of Fall Meets in dirt MSW sprints overall. Of the experienced runners, Platinum Midnight intrigues off a troubled debut and pedigree to like Kee by Midnight Lute. Rookie Gifted Candy should like it here by Candy Ride and the works are good for a Cherie DeVaux barn that’s had a strong Fall Meet. Same goes for Brendan Walsh and the Street Sense first-timer Sycamore Shoals. Red-hot Vekoma already has 3 juvenile wins at the meet and Chatter can’t be dismissed easily.
7th Race
Top-class 1-1/8 miles dirt routers match up in this allowance race that could play as a stakes almost anywhere. Favorites are 12-18 (67%) in dirt ALW races this meet. But the 7 route races have caused a trio of price bursts at 14-1, 24-1 and 32-1. Saratoga (6) and Churchill (5) have provided preps for 11 of the 18 winners. Trainer Brad Cox has 3 ALW wins at the current meet and looks for 4 with Star of Wonder. Horses near the front have had a lot of success in 9F ALW races in past Fall Meets on the dirt, including Peignoir and Piroli already this meet either leading or only a length back after the first half-mile. Stretch Ride may be the best candidate near the front. His sire Nyquist (Snead) has had a fabulous Fall Meet with 6 winners (5 on dirt). I really thought Snead was a Kentucky Derby horse before being sidelined and he will relist the distance.
8th Race
Turf allowance sprinters clash in this one. Kentucky Downs preppers have won 3 of 6 turf sprint ALW races at the meet, good news for All I Want Is You, Top Gun Girl and Bling. We talk and write often about posts 3-4-5 as the power posts in turf sprints at Keeneland. This current meet’s 11 turf sprints have seen an incredible 9 winners from those posts. That’s benefit to Ouevre, LJ’s Emma and Off Ramp without any scratches. Ouvre won over a mile here in Fall ’23, but Off Ramp intrigues from that trio at a better price under a projected great trip from Tyler Gaffalione from only a few lengths back. Deep-closing Bling should get a dynamite pace setup under ace turf sprint pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. for a Victoria Olivier barn having a solid meet.
9th Race
Thursday’s nightcap is a non-winners of 3 lifetime (N3L) claimer at 7 fulongs. The 18 dirt CLM races during the first 3 weeks of this meet include 8 winning favorites (average winner 4-1 odds). Churchill preppers hold a 7-5 lead over NYRA (Sar/Aqu) and it’s been rather quiet elsewhere. 58 of 67 overall Fall Meet 7F CLM race winners (at any condition) were within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average 1-1/4 lengths back). Don’t emphasize the last race distance: 33 winners added some to their final prep, 34 ran that distance or farther last out. Trainer David Jacobson has had a big meet with the CLM horses and looks for another win with Magic Nera. He actually looks much better on form than the barn’s previous successes at Kee. Enjoyment is the only runner with a win over the track, rallying for his N2L win here in April.