JP's Final Keeneland Saturday Selections after Scratches
Scratches — for the third time in 7 days of racing this Fall Meet — claimed 2 of my top 3 best bets on the card. We’ve retooled Races 4 and 9 because of that, but it appears those two races now run through likely favorites. Fortunately Race 7 was my best of the best and #12 My Lil Punky is the play to beat all the big name barns and pedigrees at a fair and square price. Move up #7 Classic Example in the Race 10 finale into a more key status (that was borderline a key play for me after my advance handicapping).
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 12, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Grade 1 turf fillies from around the world clash in the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Raiders from France, the UK and Canada meet some of America’s best in the Race 8 feature. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione exits 3-win and 4-win days on Thursday and Friday heading into the weekend.
The Toyota Super High 5 will be Race 10 with a $19,913.44 carryover. Races 5,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temps near 80 degrees should provide more fast-firm conditions..
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Dual-condition claimers spring 6 furlongs to start the early pick 5. We’ve had 19 dual-condition claimers at this distance in Fall Meets with an average winner 7-2 odds an no winners in double-digit odds. The average winner is only a neck off the lead after the first half-mile, so lean to speed. Trainer Jose D’Angelo and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. combined for a sharp winner on the Friday card and come back with Miss Sayely on a drop in class. Miss Jeopardy is a 3-time winner eligible for this race as a 3-year-old and looks live. Trainer Mike Maker has a trio of dual-condition claiming wins here in past Fall Meets and sends out Concerti; Eric Foster won a similar race here in Fall ’23 and has Xtra Extraordinary.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 opens with a 2-year-old turf maiden special weight route, which will have a split division in Race 5 as well. We have 80 2YO MSW turf routes in our database with favorites underperforming with 23 wins and an average winner just under 10-1. Saratoga preppers have won 2 of 3 so far this current meet, though Kentucky Downs continues to hold a 19-16 mild edge over NYRA preppers over the years. First-time starters also own 16 wins. Executive via Saratoga has perhaps the best race on paper showing. The average winner is 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile at this age/class/distance. Trainer Rusty Arnold (Plensa) has 4 wins in 2YO MSW routes in Fall Meets, including a 15-1 rookie in 2022. Cherie Devaux already has a score at the meet in a similar spot and looks for another with Lawless Ways.
3rd Race
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters match up at 6-1/2 furlongs in this one. We’ve had 48 Fall sprints for the N1X ALW condition on dirt and they’ve been good betting races. Favorites are just slightly underperformed with 15 wins, but an average winner at 9-2 is that sweet spot you’re looking for. Churchill (18) and NYRA (16) have dominated the prep circuits. Two Sharp makes a formidable class drop out of the G2 Prioress when second to Brightwork and will be a deserving chalk. The average winner is about three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile, so lean to speed, which the favorite has in spades.
4th Race
A capacity field of 12 starter allowance sprinters clash at 6 furlongs. Churchill preppers have dominated the Fall Meet STR races historically with a massive 26-5 edge in victories over Horseshoe Indianapolis (from 59 races, including 2 of 3 this Fall Meet so far). Six of these come via Churchill, the most interesting to me being Global Sensation and One Cool Dude. The average winner at this class/distance is only three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile.
5th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and pick 6 opener is the split division of Race 2 today, a 2-year-old maiden special weight turf route. We have 80 2YO MSW turf routes in our database with favorites underperforming with 23 wins and an average winner just under 10-1. Saratoga preppers have won 2 of 3 so far this current meet, though Kentucky Downs continues to hold a 19-16 mild edge over NYRA preppers over the years. First-time starters also own 16 wins. The average winner is 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile at this age/class/distance. Trainer Rusty Arnold (My Father’s Place) has 4 wins in 2YO MSW routes in Fall Meets, including a 15-1 rookie in 2022. The way Brendan Walsh’s barn is going right now you have to respect El Muheet in his first outing as well. Lucky Mischief via KD has the best current form perhaps on paper.
6th Race
Similar to race 3, we’ve got the colts version of a 6-1/2 furlong first-level (N1X) allowance on dirt as the late pick 5 starts. We’ve had 48 Fall sprints for the N1X ALW condition on dirt and they’ve been good betting races. Favorites are just slightly underperformed with 15 wins, but an average winner at 9-2 is that sweet spot you’re looking for. Churchill (18) and NYRA (16) have dominated the prep circuits. But CD-based Giant Mischief comes off a December layoff when third in the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita and makes a strong case to buck that. He was a winner here in the Fall 2022 meet over 7F. Bourbon Heist also has a strong local resume and case to make. It will be tough to get past that pair. The average winner is about three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile, so lean to speed, which the Giant Mischief appears to have more of than Bourbon Heist..
7th Race
Two-year-olds open the late pick 4 with a 6-furlong maiden special weight sprint. We’ve had some chaos in these races of late, including a $47 winner David of Athens on Friday. In fact, in the last 11 such 6F 2YO MSW in Falls Meets, more horses 22-1 or more (3) have won than favorites (2). Brendan Walsh trained Friday’s winner and has Taverna in this spot. Brad Cox was beaten Friday with a short-priced favorite / first-time starter and it will be interesting to see what the public does with rookie Keepsake on Saturday. Cox does have 6 wins in these type of races in Fall Meets, most of any barn. The average winner at this class/age/distance is only three-quarters of a length off the lead if you can identify a pace factor. I think My Lil Punky is interesting on or near the lead after not caving at Churchill in her second start against future star Muhimma. First-time starters have won 27 of the 54 Fall Meet 6F MSW races, so don’t overinflate some experience. Miss Pharoah interests as a firster who may be a decent price.
8th Race
The weekend’s main event is the Grade 1 $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at 1-1/8 miles and it’s the second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. It’s been a formful event with 13 of the last 14 winners at 5-1 or less odds, including 5 winning favorites (Mawj as the chalk last year). Tactical speed has been vital with 10 straight winners within 3 lengths after the first half-mile (average just a half-length back at that juncture). Last year, Mawj became the first internationally based winner of this race since 2011, and we’ll have Soprano from the UK and Candala from France as legitimate threats. Nine winners of this race since 2007 prepped in New York, where Lake Placid 1-2 finishers Grayosh and She Feels Pretty are formidable alumni re-matched. Grayosh trainer Chad Brown has won this race 4 of the last 6 years and already has 2 Grade 1 turf stakes wins a the current meeting.
9th Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance routers have attracted a capacity field of 12. We’ve had 15 of these at route distances in Fall Meets on dirt, favorites winning 3 and an average winner over 6-1. Kenny McPeek is 1 of 2 trainers to have won 2 of these and sends out Ben Franklin. Of 9 such races at this 1-1/16 miles trip, 8 of the winners were within 4 lengths after the opening half-mile. Favorites have won 4 of 5 dirt allowance races to open the 2024 Fall Meet, including a short price in Friday’s 6th. Unbeaten Parchment Party was one of my top Triple Crown prospects this winter before being shelved. The short stretch won’t help his style if he’s not quicker than last year, but he’s a top-class colt. Komorebino Omoide has been facing strong stakes company of late and fits as a leading player.
10th Race
The finale is a 2-year-old grass mile allowance that wraps up the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. It’s also the Toyota Super High 5 race with a $19,913.44 carryover. A similar race Friday was one by She’s All Charm dropping out of stakes company at Kentucky Downs like Coal Battle amd The Brigade try here. Two similar races last Fall Meet also were won via KD at 6-1 and 15-1 prices. Blue Coast via KD also merits a big look here, and I’ll give Classic Example’s debut mile win around 2 turns at Horseshoe Indy some love for Brad Cox. This is an $800K 2YO buy meant to win early.