JP's Final Keeneland Picks After Scratches | Saturday, October 5, 2024
We took a major hit in the scratches this morning as our 3 best bets on the card lost 2 of those to defections in Races 4 and 5. Longshot Race 2 tab Anegada will be the key to success if we can get that one home.
It’s an extremely balanced and competitive card of stakes from Races 6-10 that I don’t have a lot of firm opinions at prices. It happens sometimes. Today is one of those days. Should be great watching on the track - and the tote - I’ll be shopping for an unsuspecting overlay and waiting to pounce if it presents itself.
Because the track was so fast on Friday, and I expect it may be again (note Race 1 par should be around 1:11 and Race 3 around 1:25 to compare), move speedball Spirit Wind up in the Race 7 TCA Stakes. I didn’t have her in my mix previously, but now have her second choice. The updated full-card picks:
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 6, 2024
What to Watch for Today: It doesn’t get any bigger than Fall Stars Saturday at Keeneland as 5 major stakes races squeeze onto the schedule. The Grade 1s (First Lady presented by UK Health, Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, Coolmore Turf Mile) go in succession in Races 8-9-10 to cap the stakes barrage.
Races 6,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies with temps right at 80 degrees make up a fantastic forecast with fast/firm conditions expected.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus)
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Two-year-old maiden claiming sprinters kick off the early pick 5. We’ve had 89 such 2YO MCL sprints in Fall Meets on dirt, and favorites have won 24 (underperforming at 27%) with an average winner of more than 6-1. Horses with experience have a massive 70-19 edge in victories over debut runners. The rookies One True Shance and J. David figure to take a lot of money for Wesley Ward and Tom Drury. Churchill preppers own 40 of those 70 wins from experienced runners, which bodes well for Colonel Yorke, Altobelli, Hotline Blink and Hank Hill. I’ll lean to Hank Hill on the rider upgrade from the apprentice to Cristian Torres.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 launches with a 2-year-old turf mile maiden special weight. With 77 such 2YO turf MSW routes in the database, it’s been bombs away with an average winner more than 9-1 odds. Favorites are 22-77 (29%), including 0-for-8 during the ’23 Fall Meet, so feel free to shop. About two-thirds of the winners exited turf preps, but don’t overemphasize the distance of that prior outing based no past results. Circuits producing winners in these races have been fairly evenly distributed: 19 Kentucky Downs, 14 NYRA (Saratoga/Belmont/Aqueduct), 13 Churchill … though KD did produce 3 of 8 winners last Fall Meet. First-time starters have won 16, so it’s a 4-1 advantage in terms of experienced horses over rookies. Todd Pletcher has 4 wins in 2YO turf route MSW races since 2014 here and looks for another with Battle Drum. This is wide open, but I’ll take a price shot with Anegada via Kentucky Downs and with inside speed to remove all the variables.
3rd Race
Two-year-olds sprint 7 furlongs on dirt in this one, and it’s our first juvenile dirt MSW of the season. We’ve had 44 such races at this class/distance/age in Fall Meets on dirt and it’s an even-split with 18 wins each from Churchill preppers and first-time starters. Surprisingly only 4 came via Saratoga, 2 from Kentucky Downs and 0 from Ellis or Monmouth. The lone CD rep here is Complex Street, while the rookies are Planiloquent, Liberation Day, Quantum Burst and Illuminatrice. Trainer Eddie Kenneally won similar debuts here in Fall ’16 and ’22 (latter at 21-1 odds) and sends out Quantum Burst. Red-hot first crop sire Vekoma gets his first Keeneland dirt starter with Big Air.
4th Race
Turf route allowance runners match up here over 1-1/8 miles. Turf route ALW races are Kee Fall regulars with 277 of them in our database since 2006. Only 28% winning favorites and an average winner at 6-1 odds make them tempting places to explore prices. Kentucky Downs preppers have been dynamos with 23 wins in the 48 such offerings over the past 3 Fall Meets (next Saratoga 6, Churchill 5). The KD alumni here are Lincoln Highway, Degree of Risk, Desert Duke and Clyde’s Got a Gun. Lincoln Highway was a Kee Fall ’23 turf ALW winner, while Desert Duke won here in the Spring ’23 stand in similar. They are the only 2 local course winners in the lineup, while realizing the recent form of Lincoln Highway is hard to recommend.
5th Race
The pick 6 starts here and is a two-year-old allowance sprint at 6 furlongs. Since 2019, we’ve had 25 dirt allowances for 2YOs in Fall Meets, favorites underperforming with 7 wins (28%) while 6 winners paid $20+ win mutuels. The average winner stands at a juicy 6-1 price. Sire Practical Joke gets a whopping 27% winners on the Kee dirt and has Seagenarian looking stout vs. a weak group. His last runner-up came to next-out Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile winner Tiztastic (Mo Hair Sam also exits that same race, which may be key in this one). Likely multi-race single in this race for me. Of the 7 such races run here in Fall Meets at this 6F sprint trip, all 7 winners prepped at 6-1/2 furlongs or shorter, which plays against the cut-backs of Hedge, Kirin and Charbonnay.
6th Race
The Grade 2 Woodford Stakes opens the all-stakes pick 5 as well as today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. In the 18 years this stakes appears in our database, favorites have won half (9), including 4 of the last 6. Arzak did pull an 11-1 upset last year and returns to defend his title. The competition includes reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Nobals in a deep cast. The 18 winners come from 12 diverse prep venues, though Saratoga’s 5 top the list. Only 1 prepped at Kentucky Downs, interesting in that 7 of the 12 main-body entries here hail from KD. An eye-catching 15 of the 18 winners prepped at 5-1/2 furlongs or shorter last time out. Only 4 of 18 led after the opening half-mile, twice from the elite Golden Pal. The average winner has been 2-1/2 lengths off the lead at that juncture. Power posts 3-4-5 in full-field turf sprints at Keeneland long have been a winning angle for me, occupied here by Charcoal, last year’s Woodford runner-up Our Shot and the Wesley Ward-trained No Nay Hudson. No trainer has come close to Ward’s Kee turf sprint success, which includes 3 wins in this race – one of those with No Nay Hudson’s sire No Nay Never in 2014.
7th Race
An all-stakes pick 4 gets rolling with the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes. In 10 editions since returning to dirt, favorites have won 3 with an average winner at 5-1 odds. Seven of the last 8 have been 9-2 or less prices. No winner has closed more than 4 lengths after the first half-mile with an average winner 1-1/4 lengths off the lead at that point. Horses who prepped 6-1/2 furlongs or shorter own 7 of the wins. Wins are evenly distributed by prep locale (Churchill 3, 2 Saratoga, 1 by 5 different tracks). Brightwork, a Spring ’23 baby dash winner at Keeneland, has the only local victory in the lineup. Red Carpet Lady was third in the Grade 1 Madison here during the Spring Meet, but none of the 10 TCA recent dirt winners moved turf to dirt like Red Carpet Ready attempts. From a pedigree standpoint Clearly Unhinged (Into Mischief) and Zeitos (Curlin) are by 2 of the most prolific Kee dirt sires. This race looks like it could come down to the riders and notably in 6F Kee dirt sprints with 7 or few starters, the 26% win rate by Luis Saez really towers over these other jocks in the race, even Gaffalione (14%). That tilts things to Brightwork for me in a race that I don’t have a feel for the horses so much.
8th Race
The late pick 4 launches with the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes, which also serves as middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Of the 18 First Lady editions in our database, trainer Chad Brown owns 7 wins, including the last 6 in a row. Brown is loaded with Fluffy Socks, Gina Romantica, Chili Flag and Whitebeam. The crazy part is none of Brown’s 7 First Lady wins have been favored. Defending champion Gina Romantica is back after an 11-1 upset here a year, and she’s not favored on the morning line. She also won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over this course and is the only of the Brown quartet to post a local victory. Eleven of the last 14 winners of this race prepped on the NYRA circuit (10 directly from Saratoga), which is good news for Gina Romatica, Chili Flag and Whitebeam (ahem, the Brown trainees the only via the Spa). Chili Flag figures to be the best price of that trio, and you get local leading pilot Tyler Gaffalione, who has shown a 7% flat-bet profit on grass at Keeneland over the last decade. Trainer Dermot Weld brings Tarawa from his Irish post to Keeneland for the first time since the legendary trainer won the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf over this course with Tarnawa (no relation).
9th Race
Next up is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. Favorites have won this 5 of 10 years since returning to dirt. Likely chalk Ferocious appears strong exiting a Grade 1 Hopeful runner-up. Saratoga (5) and Churchill (4) have dominated the prep locales. Note that 8 of the last 9 winners prepped most recently at 7 furlongs, something impressive debut winner East Avenue (as well as Big Boat) will try to buck. Only 1 winner has led after the first half-mile (70-1 upsetter Knicks Go). Do note that a class rise isn’t a big deal here; 6 of 10 winners came out of the maiden special weight ranks, 4 from prior stakes. None of the 10 winners have moved turf-to-dirt like Tenacious Leader and Ready for Peace attempt. Tenacious Leader goes for a Todd Pletcher barn looking to three-peat in this race after winning the past 2 editions with Forte and Locked. Trainer Dale Romans won this race in 2015 with late-running Brody’s Cause and will try again with rallying Mesoro.
10th Race
The $1.25 million Coolmore Turf Mile wraps up the all-stakes pick 4 and pick 5, today’s pick 6 as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. This race has been known by a few sponsor titles over the years, but our 18-year history in the database indicates 9 straight losing favorites and an average winner just under 10-1 during that span. This Turf Mile hasn’t been won on the front end when contested on grass since Thorn Song in 2008, but no horse has closed more than 6 lengths after the first half-mile (average 3-1/4 lengths back at that point). Stalkers have ruled the roost. NYRA preppers have 7 wins (6 via Saratoga), outpacing 3 from Kentucky Downs. That’s good news for More Than Looks, Running Bee, Spirit of St Louis and Carl Spackler. For all his remarkable success with turf fillies and mares at Keeneland, trainer Chad Brown has never won the Turf Mile during the Fall Meet. He’ll try with Running Bee, Spirit of St Louis and the likely favorite Carl Spackler. None of that trio has appeared in a Keeneland turf stakes yet, though Running Bee is a 2-time local allowance winner. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race 2 years in a row and looks for a third different victor when he sends out Talk of the Nation.This race has been won by overseas invaders in 2006 and 2017, something to which Mountain Bear and Kikkuli will try to add. Kikkuli is very interesting as he’s half-brother to the legendary European miler Frankel. I’m giving him my lean under Frankie Dettori vs. what is a sub-par group of US turf milers this year.
11th Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters go 7 furlongs in the finale. Elder maiden special weights sprint 7 furlongs in this one. Horses exiting 1-turn miles have accounted for 5 of the 11 races over this distance/age/class in past Fall Meets (good news for Big Salt Lick and Top Gun Rocket via Ellis). Only 1 of those 11 winner closed more than 2-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile with an average winner just three-quarters of a length off the pace at that point. Bob Baffert makes a rare non-stakes appearance at Keeneland with the fleet Tour Player, who has been away since May. Churchill preppers have dominated the 57 elder dirt MSWs in Fall Meets, winning 24 (NYRA next-best with 11 winners; only 4 first-time starters – none at 7F). The CD crew here includes Nyquist Frequency and Eglise, the former out of action since last November. This has not been a good spot for horses coming off extended layoffs like several of these away since July or longer. First-time starters also have been blanked. So you’re looking for a horse with some recent form and early speed, which here figures to be Eglise and Big Salt Lick as the best fits, one among the favorites and one as a big price