JP's Final Keeneland Friday Picks & Comments

No major scratches to my plays today, just a couple of underneath horses changing in Races 4 & 7. Key plays on the card come in Races 2, 5, 7. Race 5 choice Urban Legend my top play of the meet through the first 6 days. Good luck!

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 11, 2024                                       

What to Watch for Today: The Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes gets a turf stakes weekend off to a strong start in Race 9 today on a card that concludes with a $5,100-plus carryover in the Super High 5 in Race 10. Jockeys Flavien Prat and Tyler Gaffalione won 3 races Thursday, while Luis Saez added 2.

Races 5,7,9  make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow. \

Weather: Fast-firm conditions are forecasted to continue with sunny skies and temps in the 70s..

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

In a maiden claiming sprint to open the early pick 5, there aren’t a slew of known, quality performances to evaluate. Slight lean to Bisa, who adds blinkers while shortening the trip and meeting slightly easier competition than previous races. First-time Magnetic Beach is working well, but the barn rarely wins with rookies. Kuku and Sweet Star make up the best of the rest. Tough to find confidence in this one.

2nd Race

The early pick 4 starts with a maiden special weight route and these races usually are pretty formful. Concrete Cruiser is a key play for me with an excellent post 4 (no speed to his inside) and trainer Joe Sharp’s runners have been spot on so far at the meet. Should get the trip under Tyler Gaffalione and is a single for me. Underneath consider Dual Income and Desperate Proposal, both exiting a 1-turn mile at Churchill, a good angle for these races. I’ll stand against 5-2 morning line favorite Major Dax who was 69-1 when a troubled fourth in his debut.

3rd Race

Some difficult projections here in terms of distance and surface in this 2-year-old turf mile allowance. We don’t get many Louisiana raiders of repute, but Bless the Broken looks like a good one if the smashing Evangeline debut winner takes to turf. She’s trained sharply on synthetic at Turfway since coming to the barn of Will Walden. With blinkers on, I’m expecting speed and we’ll see how good she is. She’s All Charm and Mean Eileen make solid arguments coming out of Kentucky Downs stakes. As Catch Can may offer value via Colonial for a good turf barn.

4th Race

This 7-furlong claimer is a great spot for Trust Daddy to trip out from the outside 9-draw. With a long run to the turn, this gelding’s best efforts are when he can sit second or third into the turn and pounce; Tyler Gaffalione may get every chance. I’ll key him over Catherdral Beach, a local winner re-claimed by Chris Hartman recently in a move you always appreciate seeing. Difficult read on 7-2 morning line favorite Banishing on a massive class drop, but trainer David Jacobson did win with a somewhat similar looking horse here on Wednesday.

5th Race

The Keeneland turf pick 3 and Friday pick 6 open with an allowance grass sprint and my best bet on the card. Urban Legend is beautifully drawn in post 5, in excellent form and gets ace turf sprint jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Anything near the 7-2 ML would be great, but 2-1 or 5-2 isn’t bad at all. Alcove also is well-drawn for exotics consideration, while Glacial Power should be in the hunt and could hang for a share. Singling Urban Legend in all the multi-race bets.

6th Race

The late pick 5 starts with an either-or decision between Fancy and Enclosure. They appear to have their 4 rivals at their mercy in this 1-1/16 miles second-level (N2X) allowance. The way the Brendan Walsh barn is going so far this meet, including 2 wins Thursday, it’s hard to look past the Justify filly Fancy. No doubt a return to a fast track helps Enclosure, whose last race in the slop at Churchill can be forgiven. Single or 2-deep in the multi-race wagers depending on your opinion, but I’d roll the dice with Fancy.

7th Race

The late pick 4 opener also in the middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. This 1-mile allowance for 2-year-olds is challenging, so I’m willing to price shop with Flip Flops. Trainer Mark Casse has been so successful here in Fall Meets with 2-year-old turfers, fillies in particular, and I’m willing to forgive her last poor effort at quirky Kentucky Downs. She ran well over the turf here in April. Reining Flowers is a legit favorite whose third in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saratoga was validated when Totally Justified came back here to run a photo defeat in the Jessamine opening weekend. There is a ton of early speed in this race, so find a finisher.

8th Race

Juvenile maiden special weight sprinter dash 6 furlongs and most of the attention will go to first-timer starter Patch Adams for Brad Cox, an Into Mischief colt whose mama was a Keeneland allowance winner in 2017 at a mile on dirt. T Kraft is the experienced runner who bears watching. He was runner-up July 27 at Saratoga to Chancer McPatrick, the possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite who since has won the Grade 1 Hopeful and Grade 1 Champagne. T Kraft had a wide trip going a mile from the chute at Saratoga last time and should improve. If you get beyond those two, Knicks Glory, Calling On Heaven and David of Athens intrigue for hot barns. I’m backing T Kraft.

9th Race

The featured Sycamore Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf is final leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today.  Bold Act is defending champion in the race for Godolphin / Charlie Appleby, but has lost 3 straight at smallish prices. Verstappen won the ’23 Spring Meet’s main local turf marathon, the Elkhorn, but has lost 7 straight since. I’ll lean to the run-all-day pedigree and impressive local turf marathon allowance win on the resume of Ohana Honor. Millionaire Tawny Port can always be counted on for a representative try, but hasn’t been successful in punching out the last rival late. Two-deep here with Ohana Honor the play and respect for Bold Act.

10th Race

Maiden claiming elders sprint 7 furlongs in a race where I don’t have high trust. Cruise Missile has the least variables as she’s inside speed on a clas drop. Just go and see how far she can take them for Hernandez/McPeek. Also-eligible Arrasou makes her presence known if she draws into the field and must be used. I won’t get beyond those two on the top end, but consider Lab Aberdeen and Effervescent as exotics threats.