JP's Final Carryover Sunday Keeneland Thoughts After Scratches
The $190K pick 6 carryover ($1 minimum, no jackpot provision) takes center stage today. We landed the carryover pick 6 late in the Spring Meet and hope to connect here on Day 13 of 17 of the Fall Meet.
Big scratches include Race 5 Mikealicious, a top pick, and a slew in the Race 9 finale that make that much less of a spread and focused now to a trio of main players.
Singles in the sequence for me are one on the obvious side (Race 4 favorite Mighty Madison) and one beating a favorite (Race 7 Call Me Fast).
Here is a look at the depth I need to feel some confidence in the sequence from Races 4-9 in order: 1x6x4x1x3x3. That’s $216 for $1. Adding a horse in Races 4 or 7 doubles the cost of the ticket to $432, not worth the investment for little additional true coverage. Adding a horse in Races 8 or 9 adds $72 to the ticket, a debatable decision if you think another is worthy.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 20, 2024
What to Watch for Today: A tempting $190,971 pick 6 carryover sweetens the Sunday pot – as well as a $31,689 Toyota Super High 5 carryover. Turf marathon fillies and mares square off in the featured Dowager Stakes in Race 8. It’s a 1-2 rematch from the Spring Meet’s Bewitch Stakes between Chop Chop and Atomic Blonde. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione exits a 3-win Saturday, giving him 5 wins over the past 2 cards.
Races 3,6,8 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies and temps in the low 70s are forecasted. Fast-firm conditions continue.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles to start the early pick 5. We’ve had 35 in Fall Meets overall with 18 winning favorites and an average winner at 4-1 odds. Experienced runners hold a 30-5 edge in wins over rookies. Churchill preppers won 17 of those races (no other circuit more than 3). Cruz Chica and Kim Possible are the CD reps. Seven winners moved turf to dirt like Cat Pays the Toll and No Pardon Bid. No Pardon sire Nyquist has had a fantastic Fall Meet while trainer Rodolphe Brisset has been one of the big stories of the season with his success. Maiden special weight droppers have dominated with 26 wins, and that’s good news for Cat Pays the Toll and Curls Nite Out.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 opener is an elder maiden claimer over 6-1/2 furlongs. Six maiden claiming sprints at the meet have seen 2 first-time starters win with 2 preppers from Churchill. The average winner has been three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile. Wesley Ward has one of those debut wins and tries again with Scottish Storm. Maiden special weight class droppers have the edge in Kee MCLs, so give an extra look to Code One, D Day and Maestro. The latter is my pick, sired by longtime strong Kee dirt influence Candy Ride.
3rd Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight turf sprinters clash in the opening leg to Sunday’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve only had 7 of these dating back to their 2018 debut in Fall Meets. Favorites are 4-8 and top price is 12-1. Power posts 3-4-5 have a strong history here and profitability in full-field turf sprints, including Saturday’s Race 3. Before scratches, that boosts Shirley Ann, Risky Wave and Glean. Trainer Wesley Ward, far and away top Kee turf sprint and 2YO trainer, sends out Glean from the favorable draw and is the play. Ward has won 8 of 17 Kee 2YO turf MSW races run (which includes Spring, Fall and the delayed Summer 2020 meet). Trainer Rusty Arnold already has won a pair of turf sprints at the current meet and sends out Risky Wave.
4th Race
The $190K carryover pick 6 starts with a 6-1/2 furlong allowance sprint. Of the first 9 dirt ALW sprints this meeting, favorites have run roughshod with an incredible 8 wins. The lone non-favorite was a 2-1 shot. Average win odds has been even-money. Heavy 6-5 morning line favorite Mighty Madison looks strong and a likely single in multi-race bets. Her sire Nyquist has 4 winners at the current meet at an average price of 9-1. Look for front-end speed here as the average dirt ALW sprint winner at the meet has been ahead by a neck after the first half-mile, one of the strongest speed profiles you’ll see at Keeneland.
5th Race
This swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a 1-1/16 miles non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer. Favorites are 7-16 in claiming races so far this meet with an average winner 7-2 odds. Seven of those 16 CLM winners also came off Churchill preps. The CD cast wins about one-third of every Fall Meet N2L claimer we’ve run on dirt (23-6 edge over any other circuit, including Friday’s such offering). The CD reps here are Curlin Gunner, Cat On Time, Bettera and Six Kings. Interlock Empire has the best maiden win on paper in the N2L, a handicapping angle I often employ. Trainer Kent Sweezey (Cat On Time) has a pair of CLM wins already this Fall Meet.
6th Race
The second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is a first-level (N1X) allowance mile on grass. It also kicks off the late pick 4. Through the first 12 turf route ALW races at the current Fall Meet, favorites have 5 wins, an average winner at 3-1 and only 3 between 5-1 and 9-1 at the top end of prices. It hasn’t been as Saratoga/Kentucky Downs dominant as many years (Sar 4, KD 3). Hay Stack is a local course winner with 2 good races over the local turf. Trainer Cherie DeVaux already had a turf route ALW win at the meet and looks for another with Just the Sky. Those are my focus. If Random Harvest draws in off the also-eligible list, you’ll want to consider.
7th Race
Third-level (N3X) allowance routers compete over 1-1/8 miles. There have been 18 9F route ALW races since the return to dirt in 2014 during Fall Meets, the average winner 2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile (only 2 led at that point, just 1 closed more than 5 lengths). Churchill preppers have won 7 of the 18, and note 9 of 18 winners exited turf preps like Guntown, Red Run and Call Me Fast attempt. The average winner has been more than 7-1 in a race you can get a price in if you find one. Call Me Fast and Raise Cain are the local dirt winners, and the former was also runner-up in the Ben Ali over this track, while the latter won the local Perryville last year.
8th Race
The Grade $300,000 Dowager Stakes is the Sunday feature and final leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. The 18 years of this stakes in our database show 10 winning favorites, 1 winner topping 8-1, and an average winner at 7-2 odds. Deep closers have had success with an average winner more than 5 lengths back after the first half-mile. Only 2 of 18 winners led at that point and only one-third of them even less than 3 lengths back. Three-time Dowager Stakes winning trainer Graham Motion (including last year) has Three Priests in search of a fourth. Surprisingly gets back to the 1-1/2 miles trip of her sharp runner-up in the Orchid at Gulfstream behind McKulick. She’s faced tougher competition than most of these and will be my play. Chop Chop has to be respected, having won the Dowager Stakes over this course and distance in the Spring Meet.
9th Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers spring 6 furlongs in the Week 3 finale, the $31K Super High 5 carryover race. First-time starters have won 2 of the first 3 such offerings at the current meet, but experienced horses have a 71-21 edge in past Fall Meets in these spots. Those dropping from MSW races have won 42 vs. 29 for those running back in MCLs. Six of these drop out of MSW amongst the experienced cast, most interesting of which to me are All the Luck via Colonial and a trainer change to Saffie Joseph Jr. and Coastertothemoon, a daughter of super first-crop Vekoma, whose babies are lighting up the Kee track as well. First-timer Banks intrigues on a road trip from Maryland for Brittany Russell, who gets Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride.