JP's Final $301K Carryover Pick 5 Keeneland Thoughts After Scratches
Take advantage of $301,896 in carryover money at Keeneland today that can’t beat you, but can only boost your payout. The late pick 5 on Races 4-8 gets going just after 2:30 pm ET. Scratches, fortunately, made no impact on my advanced handicapping. Note jockey Cristian Torres is off mounts today (Flavien Prat picked up our top pick in Race 3).
I’m looking at a 3x5x1x2x2 ($30 for each $.50) ticket structure in the late pick 5. I’ll hang my hat around potential lone speed in Race 6 (#6 Landed), while giving myself price chances in Races 5,7,8.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 23, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Week 4 gets off to a flying start with a $301,896 carryover in the late pick 5, which begins in Race 4 of this 8-race card. Tyler Gaffalione enters closing week with a 20-15 lead over Luis Saez in the jockey standings, while trainers Brad Cox (11), Rodolphe Brisset (9) and Brendan Walsh (7) pace the trainers.
No $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only a pair of grass races slated. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies and temps in the high 70s are in a fabulous forecast. Fast-firm conditions again.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Starter allowance routers go 1-1/16 miles on dirt to begin the early pick 5. We’ve had 7 starter allowance races at the meet with 4 winning favorites and 6 winner at 3-1 or less (high 8-1). Churchill preppers have won 3, Parx accounts for 2. Overall, the 20 dirt route Fall Meet starter allowances have been formful with an average winner 7-2 odds. Pressers/stalkers rule with an average winner 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile (only 3 of 20 led, none closed more than 5-3/4 lengths at that point). You Pueudo has a good running style for this trip and has run very well over the track, winning here in April ’23. East Shore was second over the track last Fall Meet and really fits the conditions well, as does Lucy Got Game, who lacks local experience. Cha Cha Chukka goes for a Brendan Walsh barn having a career meet.
2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers start the early pick 4 in a 6-furlong sprint. First-time starters have won 2 of the first 4 such offerings at the current meet, but experienced horses have a 72-21 edge in past Fall Meets in these spots. Those dropping from MSW races have won 42 vs. 30 for those running back in MCLs. Favorites underperform in MCL sprints for 2YOs, winning just 26%, including an 11-1 upsetter to close Sunday’s card. The average winner is more than 6-1 odds. Of the experienced horses here, Citizen Judy on a class drop for a John Ennis barn that’s had a lot of top-3 success at the meet. Meet leading trainer Brad Cox has Golden Irish among the first time-starters. He’s 3-13 with first-time starters in MCL sprints here in Fall Meets over the years. Keep a longshot eye on first-timer Real Mischievous, whose trainer Mike Tomlinson has popped some very nice prices here during the closing week of the Fall Meet in years gone by.
3rd Race
This one is a similar starter allowance over 1-3/16 miles dirt as to Race 1 today, but not restricted to fillies and mares like that one. We’ve had 7 starter allowance races at the meet with 4 winning favorites and 6 winner at 3-1 or less (high 8-1). Churchill preppers have won 3, Parx accounts for 2. Overall, the 20 dirt route Fall Meet starter allowances have been formful with an average winner 7-2 odds. Pressers/stalkers rule with an average winner 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile (only 3 of 20 led, none closed more than 5-3/4 lengths at that point). Curlin’s Gesture is a very good fit to the race conditions and respect any Curlin around 2 turns here this extended distance. No guessing with Apollo Rising over this track, winning here in Spring ’23 and Fall ’23 for a William Walden barn that’s had a dynamite meet with limited starters.
4th Race
The $301,896 carryover late pick 5 begins with this $32,000 claiming route over 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The 18 dirt CLM races this meet include 8 winning favorites (average winner 4-1 odds). Churchill preppers hold a 7-5 lead over NYRA (Sar/Aqu) and it’s been rather quiet elsewhere. Strava, now age 5, was a sharp MSW winner here in Fall ’21 as a 2YO. Huge Bigly and Navy Soul also have local wins as lower levels. Nullarbor has yet to run at Keeneland, but the Illinois shipper is by Candy Ride, who is a fantastic 21% winning sire here in dirt routes from more than 100 starters. Into Mischief has almost identical numbers in these local dirt route and is represented by Show Time and Strava.
5th Race
The late pick 4 opens with a 1-1/16 miles maiden special weight on turf for older horses. In 52 past Fall Meet elder turf MSW routes, 18 winners prepped at Kentucky Downs and 13 at NYRA (Sar/Bel). Favorites hit just under 30%, slightly underperforming, but the average winner is a solid 5-1, so there are good betting races. More than 80% exited turf preps and more than 80% exited preps at 1 mile or longer. Birdwatching and Scenic Beauty are the only two fits in those angles. Mike Maker has 5 such wins in MSW elder turf routes in Fall Meets, most of any barn, and sends out One Front War.
6th Race
This second-level (N2X) allowance is at 1-1/8 miles on the dirt. Favorites are 12-18 (67%) in dirt ALW races this meet. But the 7 route races have caused a trio of price bursts at 14-1, 24-1 and 32-1. Saratoga (6) and Churchill (5) have provided preps for 11 of the 18 winners. Trainer Brad Cox has 3 ALW wins at the current meet and looks for 4 with Muiscal Note. Todd Pletcher (Audacious) hasn’t had a banner meet, but note his 17 all-time Kee dirt wins at 9F easily are most of any trainer. Horses near the front have had a lot of success in 9F ALW races in past Fall Meets on the dirt, including Peignoir and Piroli already this meet either leading or only a length back after the first half-mile. Find a horse with forward position, including Landed, who could be lone speed if other riders aren’t aggressive.
7th Race
Allowance turf sprinters match up in the day’s featured race. We talk and write often about posts 3-4-5 as the power posts in turf sprints at Keeneland. This current meet’s 11 turf sprints have seen an incredible 9 winners from those posts. That’s music to the ears of Mark of the Z, Front Run the Fed and Eamonn barring any scratches changing the posts. Eamonn’s third in the Shakertown here in April makes him the most interesting of that trio perhaps while the other pair have won over the course. Joel Rosario makes a rare Kee appearance this meet and partners with Mischievious Rogue; he’s been the top turf sprint rider here over the years. Luis Saez (Outadore) already has ridden 3 turf sprint winners this current meet.
8th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6-1/2 furlongs to draw Wednesday to a close. The Toyota Super High 5 is offered on this race. So far there have been 10 2YO MSW sprints on dirt at the Fall Meet. Favorites are 2-10, while 9 of 10 winners were 6-1 or less – good betting races. The average winner has been three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile, with no winner closing more than 4 lengths from that point. At all dirt distances, Churchill preppers have 7 of the 14 wins (3 first-time starters, all in sprints). But first-time starters hold a solid 46-34 edge over the CD experienced runners in terms of Fall Meets in dirt MSW sprints overall. Touchy drops out of the Saratoga Special and Tremont for Wesley Ward and will be formidable among the experienced runners. His sire Nyquist has had a fabulous Fall Meet with 6 winners (5 on dirt). Rookies Original Sin (Brad Cox) and Mo Quality (Christopher Davis) intrigue most of the fresh faces. Davis has won 3 of 7 at the meet at $10, $12 and $46 mutuels.