Jeremy's Wednesday Keeneland Picks + Stats/Trends

Good luck with today’s Week 2 opening card at Keeneland. If playing the late pick four, note Xpressbet and 1/ST BET offers a $2,000 Hit & Split bonus each day of the Fall Meet on that wager.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 11, 2023

What to Watch for Today: An eight-race card welcomes Week 2 action, which means that Races 4 and 5 will overlap in the early and late pick four and pick five. A trio of juvenile races – two on the turf – are in the mix.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 4,6,8 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies with temps in the low 70s are in a beautiful forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

Race 1

Week 2 begins with dual-condition claimers routing 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more … though 15-1 Navy Soul popped here Sunday in a similar spot. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others and included Sunday’s winner from Indy. Lady With a Cause is the CD rep here and looks logical on paper with a Keeneland victory over this distance during the Spring Meet. A trio of these runners come in via Belterra Park in Ohio, but note Btp preppers won just 2 races at the entire 2022 Fall Meet (none yet so far in 2023).

Race 2

The early pick 4 starts with a 2-year-old maiden special sprint at 7 furlongs. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44% and all 6 winners opening weekend were between 3-1 and 5-1 odds. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue, but the first-time starters won 4 offerings opening week. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior. The rookies here are Silent Spectre, Great Richie M, Mr Faversham and Cloth of Gold from the main body of the field. Wecallemfuncoupons, Tiz My Hero, Money Shot and Lead Foot represent CD.

Race 3

Starter allowance sprinters kick off the pick 6 at 7 furlongs. This might be the strongest and deepest race of the meet so far with several runners in raging good form. We’ve had 47 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets with 19 winners via Churchill Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis far back next with 5. The average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-47. But note 40 of 47 winners were 8-1 or less, so these have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill runners here include Like a Saltshaker, One Cool Due, Junior Bug and Risk Profile. Caramel Chip was a smashing winner here in April of a nearly identical race. Casey’s Memory brings a strong record from Iowa’s Prairie Meadows and could like the Kee footing in his local debut as a son of sire Honor Code.

Race 4

The Keeneland Turf Pick Three and the late pick 5 start in this 2-year-old maiden special weight at 1 mile on grass. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW turf routes is to be on longshot alert. The average winner is 9.5-1 odds from nearly 70 such races in the database with as many winners 10-1 or more as winning favorites. Only about half the winners prepped at a route distance, so don’t be afraid of a stretch-out in trip; note two-thirds of the winners did prep on turf. Winners are really spread evenly with an ever-slight edge to Kentucky Downs preppers over first-time starters, Churchill and NYRA preppers all nearly identical. Several of the top KD interests in this race are on the also-eligible list, so keep an eye on the changes.

Race 5

The late pick four opener is a non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer at 6 furlongs on dirt. We’ve had 24 such N2L claimers at this distance in Fall Meets and just over half the winners (13) were shortening distance from their previous start. Churchill preppers lead Indy 8-3 in these spots, so horses like Go Margie Go and Two Fast for You on CD cut-backs in distance could fit the profile. Don’t be worried so much about a surface change in these races as 9 of 24 winners made such a move. One of my favorite traditional handicapping angles is to bet horses in N2L claimers who have the strongest maiden wins on paper since they’ve all just won once. The Indy open MSW wins by Intermittent Fast and Too Fast for You rate highest in quality to me in this field.

Race 6

This entry-level (N1X) turf mile allowance serves as the middle leg of today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf route allowance races is for favorites to underperform (just 27%) with an average winner at 6-1 odds. These races about 40% of their winners come evenly split via Kentucky Downs and New York (Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) with a big gap back to Churchill Downs next-best. Opening week’s pair of such offerings were split between KD and Sar preppers. The main body of the field here has 4 via KD: Make the Boys Wink, Lilac Girl, Up and Down and Lemon Bomb; while Whiskey Lullaby is the only NYRA shipper. The average winner of these races is nearly 4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 17% of winners leading that that point. No trainer has won more Fall Meet turf ALW routes here since 2006 than Graham Motion’s 25 (Up and Down).

Race 7

Starter allowance performers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt in this one. We’ve had 47 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets with 19 winners via Churchill Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis far back next with 5. The average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-47. But note 40 of 47 winners were 8-1 or less, so these have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Sant’ Antimo is a Churchill prepper at an attractive 9-2 morning line and by strong Kee dirt sire Honor Code. Fightertown also comes via CD and is by high-volume Kee dirt sire Into Mischief.

Race 8

The nightcap is a split division of Race 4 for 2-year-old maiden special weight turf milers. It wraps today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three and all the late multi-race wagers. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW turf routes is to be on longshot alert. The average winner is 9.5-1 odds from nearly 70 such races in the database with as many winners 10-1 or more as winning favorites. Only about half the winners prepped at a route distance, so don’t be afraid of a stretch-out in trip; note two-thirds of the winners did prep on turf. Winners are really spread evenly with an ever-slight edge to Kentucky Downs preppers over first-time starters, Churchill and NYRA preppers all nearly identical. From KD, Auraculous and Cairo Street are both of interest in this spot, offering more value than fellow RD raider Spiritual Lady based on the morning line.