Jeremy's updated Keeneland selections for Saturday, April 13 + Stats/Trends
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, April 13, 2024
What to Watch for Today: A trio of major stakes share the marquee as the Giant’s Causeway for turf sprinters, the Jenny Wiley for star turf fillies and mares, and the Lexington for Triple Crown hopefuls all share the marquee. A middle pick 4 is added to the wagering menu in Races 4-7 with 11 races carded.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is scheduled for Races 7,9,11.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies and warmer temps in the upper 60s are more than welcome after a soggy, cold week. The track conditions should be drying on the main and the turf will have plenty of cushion and give to it.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Maiden claimers dash the rare 5-1/2 furlong dirt distance to start the early pick 5. We’ve only run 13 races on dirt at this distance at any class level, much less just 1 of them during a Spring Meet. Gloriette is interesting in that trainer Ben Colebrook also won a 2018 Fall Meet maiden at 5-1/2 furlongs with an offspring of Munnings like this. She has early speed from the rail, which should be effective at this trip. Missile goes for an Eddie Kenneally barn that’s razor-sharp in Kee maiden claiming races. He’s got 20 wins in these MCL events locally (only Brad Cox’s 21 are more), and Kenneally wins 26% in those bids. Of the rare 13 races at this dash distance, Wesley Ward has 3 wins (no big surprise with his horses’ speed). He’ll send out Stuck On You and Iguazu.
2nd Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint 7 furlongs on the dirt as the early pick 4 begins. In 70 prior Spring Meet N2L claimers, wins are split 20-18 on top between Turfway and Fair Grounds preppers; Oaklawn’s 7 and Gulfstream’s 6 trail. They play fair in terms of prices with about 36% winning favorites and an average winner just over 4-1 (first 2 this current meet were 5-1 and 7-1). In 41 such sprints at this level, only 3 winners closed more than 4 lengths after the opening half-mile to win (average winner just under 1 length back at that point). Wins at 7F are nearly evenly distributed by horses exiting sprint and route preps. The best maiden wins showing amongst these N2Ls belong to Theroadrunner and Liam’s Champ, who won MSW races at Fair Grounds and Aqueduct. Liam’s Champ makes what looks to be a noteworthy jockey move to Irad Ortiz Jr. and that could be the edge. St. Benedict’s prep has the only local win, scoring a MCL here in the Fall Meet.
3rd Race
Maiden claimers extend the sprint trip to about 7 furlongs in this one. Oaklawn preppers have won 2 of the first 3 MCL races at the current Spring Meet and could add with either True Faith or Summonyourcourage. The latter is 0-11 but been around the money a lot in his career and ran a better-than-looks third here in Oct. 22 when chasing a sensational 2YO named Extra Anejo. Coming into this week, we’ve had 26 of these 7F MCL in Spring Meets and more than one-third of them have been won by horses 10-1 or more odds (8 of 26, favorites have 9 wins after Friday’s 3-5 chalk Sharp Shot). First-time starters account for only 4 of the 26 wins, so Wesley Ward’s Modern Day Warrior should be well bet while trying to swim against that trend. 11 winners made surface changes from turf or synthetic, while 10 also cut back in distance from a mile or farther. This is one of the better spots for a turnback in distance at Keeneland. Only 4 of 25 led after a half-mile, but 22 of 26 winners were within 3 lengths of the lead at that point. So your cut-back runner should be one with some early ability.
4th Race
A special middle pick 4 is added here on Races 4-7. Three-year-old maiden special weights match up over 6-1/2 furlongs. The first 5 dirt MSW races for older horses this Spring Meet were all formful results with winners 3-1 odds or less. Fair Grounds produced 2 wins among those, good news for Coach Campbell and Teen Idol. The latter is by Curlin, the top Kee dirt sire in 2023 and out of the star mare Teen Pauline, a true blueblood. We’ve had 17 MSW races for 3YOs over this 6-1/2 furlong trip in Spring Meets, including 5 won by first-time starters. Don’t be afraid of a rookie. Favorites are a very strong 8-17 in such races at this class/distance, so give credence to any well-backed debut runners.
5th Race
Turf route maiden special weights compete over 1-1/16 miles. Feel free to price shop as favorites win about 25% in turf route MSW during Spring Meets and the average winner is 6-1 odds. Gulfstream preppers have a big 47-15-8 edge over Fair Grounds and Turfway in these races historically in Spring, but Turfway did surprise with 2 of the 3 such winners opening weekend. Spaliday should be favored for Chad Brown off her debut third at Gulfstream. She’s a daughter of Dayatthespa (winner of the Appalachian, Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and First Lady over this turf course). Trainer Chad Brown’s 10 wins in Spring 3YO MSW turf routes is most of any trainer (Mike Maker next with 9, has Pin UP Betty in this race). Spaliday makes sense, but the value is in question. First-time starters have won only 7 of 102 turf MSW routes in Spring and 3 of 70 at 1-1/16 miles or more. Certainly well-bred Scarlet Poppy and Ready for Shirl intrigue, but are up against the profile. I’m conflicted, wanting to get crafty in this race, but feeling it’s a reach.
6th Race
The pick 6 opener is a second-level (N2X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The regally bred Curlin-Dreaming of Julia filly Julia Shing, third in the ’23 Ashland, makes her seasonal return. Her trainer Todd Pletcher has 9 Kee Spring dirt route ALW wins, most of any barn. The first 5 dirt route ALW this current meet have been won by horses 5-1 or less and averaged just a 5-2 return. Magical Lute and Julia Shining are the local winners in this field of 7. More than 80% of winners are less than 3 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile at this kind of trip, class and field size (7 or less). Musical Mischief appears most capable among those with early speed to threaten victory.
7th Race
Saturday’s late pick 5, including 3 stakes, begins with the $300,000 Giant’s Causeway turf sprint. Favorites have won this 7 of the last 16 years. The last 8 winners all were within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The last 15 winners prepped at 6 furlongs or less, the last 14 prepped on turf. Only 6 of these exit races at 6 furlongs or less on turf. One of those is Love Reigns, winner of the Limestone and a local turf sprint MSW. Her trainer Wesley Ward won this the past 2 years with fillies making their first starts of the year like this, as well as the same way in 2017 off the winter break. Ward easily tops all local trainers in turf sprint wins, while top turf sprint Kee jockey Joel Rosario easily has the most stakes wins in this category. Lots to like. Others who fit the profile: Play the Music, Secret Money, Port Townsend, Roses for Debra and Breeze Easy, the latter may relish soft turf. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
8th Race
A third-level (N3X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on dirt opens the late pick 4. Classic Catch trainer Todd Pletcher has 9 Kee Spring dirt route ALW wins, most of any barn. The first 5 dirt route ALW this current meet have been won by horses 5-1 or less and averaged just a 5-2 return. Hayes Strike scratched earlier this week for this spot, and note sire Connect had a big year with 5 Kee dirt winners in 2023; same goes for sire Street Sense of Brigadier General in this race. Street Sense’s offspring have been tearing it up locally with 10 wins since the start of 2023, 3 early in the meet this year. The race projects to have a hot pace, and while closers haven’t had a ton of success at the meet, they’ve won when races have set up that way. Hayes Strike is my play to finish along with Classic Catch.
9th Race
Top fillies and mares battle in the Grade 1 $600,000 Jenny Wiley at 1-1/16 miles on turf. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race 5 of the last 6 years, including 2 straight. No surprise that he’s got multiple shots here with Fluffy Socks, Gina Romatica, Surge Capacity and Beaute Cachee. The last 5 winners all have been within 1 length of the lead after the opening half-mile and 4 of the last 5 won by horses making their first start of the year. Favorites have won 5 straight editions and 8 of the last 11. Follow which Chad Brown gets bet and you’re likely on the right path. I do give Elusive Princess a big chance, however. She will relish the soft turf and ran a very good fourth here last year to the super-talented Mawj. She got a nice prep for this and Junior Alvarado won a couple of races here earlier in the week. In a race without much pace, look for her to be sent early from a good draw. Irish-bred English Rose also should benefit from the course conditions, part of the Godolpin-Charlie Appleby contingent that raided Keeneland this week for the Maker’s Mark Mile and the Jenny Wiley. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
10th Race
The Grade 3 $600,000 Lexington Stakes is a 1-1/16 miles dirt showdown and possible springboard to the Triple Crown series. Disarm came out of a third-place effort in this race last year to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby; Tawny Port won it the year prior and fan seventh in the Run for the Roses. The last 6 winners of this race have all been 2 or more lengths off the lead after the first half-mile and the 8 editions on dirt since 2015 have averaged closers 5-3/4 lengths back at that point. Speed has not been successful. Fair Grounds preppers have won 4 of the last 6, but none are in this spot, so it’s open season in that regard. All 8 winners exited preps at 1-1/16 miles or longer, something 4 of these would have to buck. Brad Cox has won this race 3 of the last 4 years (2 straight) and has Encino via Turfway. The horse he beat in the Battaglia, Epic Ride, has come back to run third in last week’s Blue Grass. This is the closer to fear along with late-running Oaklawn performer Liberal Arts, who wintered at the nearby The Thoroughbred center for Robbie Medina. Beware his big late run and rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. Strong lean to these two.
11th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance turf routers wrap the card over 1-1/16 miles. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE. Turf route ALW races produce only 28.4% winning favorites, far underperforming expectations. Gulfstream preppers have had the insanely big edge in prep circuits in these races in Spring Meets, 122-26 over Fair Grounds. That’s good news for Deadpan, Royal Majesty, Beyond Stoked and Frontline Warrior (GP also-eligibles include Thomas Aquinas and Tifareeh). Six of 7 turf route winners opening weekend were within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile, but we’ve had a lot of rain since to perhaps alter that. Soft conditions could favor Royal Majesty’s experience and international bloodlines. Pure Poetry may love this turf course by Quality Road, whose offpring won 4 grass races here in 2023 at a 21% strike rate. He should be controlling pace from the inside.