Jeremy's Keeneland Wednesday Final Update After Scratches
A couple of scratches of underneath tabs in Race 3 and 5 today, but our key plays on the card in both of those races remain in tract - #4 Three Polks in R3, #10 Bella Haze in R5 (longshot bomb 30-1 morning line).
It’s been a barrage of favorites and huge bombs through the first 7 days of the Fall Meet, and our picks today reflect that without trying to … we’ve got some chalk with 20-1 (Race 8) and 30-1 (Race 5) sprinkled in.
Leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione out today and tomorrow serving a HISA suspension for overuse of the whip.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 16, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Week 3 opens with an 8-race card where Races 4 and 5 will be pivotal in the early and late pick 4s and pick 5s. Leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be off Wednesday and Thursday, returning to action Friday.
No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only 2 grass races slated. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Temps have broken down to the 50s this week though dry skies should keep everything fast and firm to start the racing week.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Dual-condition claimers lead off the early pick 5 at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 5-10 so far in the current Fall Meet in claiming races with an average winner just 5-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 3 wins with 7 other circuits a win apiece. The CD set makes up half of this 8-pack. But trainer Brad Cox already has 3 wins at the current meet in 6F sprints at 9-5 or less and figures a strong chance with Good Like Magic via Ellis Park, a likely heavy favorite. The average winner in 20 such races at this class/distance in past Fall Meets is only a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. Look speed. And no winner turned back from a final prep longer than 7F as some of these attempt.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 begins with a maiden claiming route for 2-year-olds on dirt. It’s our first 2YO MCL route of the meet, but we’ve had 34 in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites have won 17 for an even 50%. Experienced horses hold a strong 29-5 edge on first-time starters. Churchill preppers dominate with 19 wins (no other circuit more than 3). Only 14 of 34 winners had gone a mile or more in the most recent start, so don’t fear a stretch-out. Only 4 winners exited a MCL prep, so lean heavy to those dropping from maiden special weights. Kenny McPeek’s 4 wins in these races are second-most to Brad Cox (6) and he’ll have Consecrated). Likely favorite Deeply Hidden has Churchill form but exits a Del Mar race and note trainer Kent Sweezey won with his only dirt starter so far this meet.
3rd Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint 6 furlongs to kick off the pick 6. Favorites are 5-10 so far in the current Fall Meet in claiming races with an average winner just 5-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 3 wins with 7 other circuits a win apiece. And the CD cast wins about one-third of every Fall Meet N2L claimer we’ve run on dirt (22-6 edge over any other circuit). The CD preppers here are Royal Blood, Three Polks, Business as Usual, Sister Ella and Sombra Dorada. All my top choices in here come from that group, led by Fall ’23 Kee MSW winner Three Polks, who easily has the best maiden victory in this group. Trainer David Jacobson already has a pair of claiming victories at the meet, including a similar N2L, and has Antique Silver as a threat if she can draw in from the also-eligible list.
4th Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in a swing race for the early and late pick 5. Favorites are 5-10 so far in the current Fall Meet in claiming races with an average winner just 5-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 3 wins with 7 other circuits a win apiece. And the CD cast wins about one-third of every Fall Meet N2L claimer we’ve run on dirt (22-6 edge over any other circuit). The CD preppers here are Krickle, The Big Calhouna, Sassy Walker, Despo’s Dream and Scrupulous. The best maiden wins in this cast come from Krickle and Animal Fries. Up on the Edge was runner-up here last Fall Meet in Thorpedo Anna’s impressive maiden breaker. She’s run well decently well here in the past in a field with very limited local experience.
5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick 4 is a first-level (N1X) allowance turf sprint. In full-field turf sprints, power posts 3-4-5 long have been a profitable and strong betting angle. This meet, they’ve accounted for 3 of the 5 full-field turf sprints at 7-5, 5-1 and 6-1 odds. Pre-scratches start your handicapping evaluating the prospects of Arch Street, Royal Slipper and Harbor Springs. Surprisingly that trio has absolutely zero career starts on turf. Royal Slipper does go for Wesley Ward, far and away Keeneland’s leading turf sprint trainer over the past decade-plus. Elite turf sprint jockey Irad Ortiz jr. pairs with Harbor Springs. In terms of turf sprint experience, hard to fault the consistency of Moon Spun. As a trip handicapper, I’m very interested in longshot Bella Haze.
6th Race
Allowance runners extend to 1-1/8 miles on dirt in this one. Favorites are an insane 9-for-11 in dirt allowance races the first 2 weeks of this Fall Meet. Only 1 winner has been higher than 2-1 odds. Only 2 of those have been route races, and 1 was the outlier that produced a 24-1 bomb winner. We’ve had 16 of these Fall dirt ALW races at the 1-1/8 miles trip, and they’ve averaged more than an 8-1 mutuel. So don’t be totally gun shy to shop. Those favorites’ rates can’t continue for too long. Nine of the 16 winners at this trip/class moved from turf preps like Moonlight and Luna Top bid. Only 2 of 16 stretched out from sprints like Think Big attempts. Over 9F, the classy pedigree of D’oro Unbridled intrigues. By Medaglia d’Oro and out of the Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Oaks third-place finisher Unbridled Forever, there’s a lot to like. His maternal grandmother, Lemons Forever, won the Kentucky Oaks.
7th Race
The Wednesday feature is a 1-1/2 miles turf allowance marathon. We’ve had 38 Fall turf marathon ALW races like this and while favorites slightly underperform with 13 winners, the average winner is just 7-2 odds. All 38 have been won by horses 9-1 or less. It’s a strong closers profile with an average winner 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Kentucky Downs (12) and NYRA (10) preps have split the winners. Note KD preppers have won both 12F turf races this meet, a Sunday ALW and the Sycamore Stakes. Eight of these 12 exit KD preps so expect that to continue. Sire Hard Spun already has 2 turf route winners at the Fall Meet, including Sycamore champ Highway Robber over this trip, and is represented by Goldeneye. Sire Justify has had some success on the Kee turf with his offspring, including a 12F winner here in the Spring Meet, and has late-running Better Bet here. Trainers Mike Maker (11) and Bill Mott (7) are two of the top-4 by wins in Kee turf marathons (either meet) over the past decade). They will saddle The Prince’s Spur and Cyber Ninja, respectively.
8th Race
We wrap the action with a rare 1-1/8 miles maiden claimer for older horses. These are rare 9F MCL races; we’ve only had 7 on dirt (4 since 2015). Favorites are 1-7 with recent winners at 20-1 and 21-1, so trust issues are real. Speed has dominated these races. No winner has been more than 1 length off the lead after the first half-mile. 4 of 7 made surface changes from turf or synthetic. Only 1 of 7 exited a sprint prep like Commander’s Coin, Indy Charge and Uncle Tuffy try – though I do like some of the route races the latter pair have shown on paper in a weak field of contenders. At 20-1 and given the upset nature of these races, I’m willing to try Uncle Tuffy, a runner-up here over 1-1/16 miles in the Spring Meet. Trainer Thomas Van Berg won a similar race here in Fall 2020 and tries again with Rocket Night.