Jeremy's Keeneland Saturday Picks, Stats & Trends

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, April 20, 2024                                         

What to Watch for Today: The Elkhorn Stakes matches turf marathoners in Race 8 and brings international star jockey Frankie Dettori and trainer Charlie Appleby in tandem with Bold Act, who looks to add to his Sycamore Stakes victory during the ’23 Fall Meet. Meanwhile, last year’s Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns headlines the cast in the Race 9 Ben Ali Stakes.

Jockeys Joel Rosario, Florent Geroux and Jose Ortiz are on the road to Oaklawn today.

Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 6,8,10.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Temps in the mid-60s, dry skies and partly sunny conditions are in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Six-furlong maiden claimers open the early pick 5. Favorites are 3-11 in MCL races this Spring with an average winner 5-1 odds. Turfway preppers have ruled with 6 of the wins, good news for Put the Crazy Away and She’s Always Rosie. Trainer Brendan Walsh was one of our Week 3 trainers to watch based on his historical Spring Meet Week 3 success and he’s been on fire the last few days. He’ll send out Lady Aberdeen. First-time starters win about 1 in 7 of these 6F MCL in Spring Meets, so lean to experience.

2nd Race

Maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs to start the early pick 4. This race is restricted to horses who sold for $50,000 or less at auction, similar to a race that produced a longshot first-time starter to win Friday (Save the Trees, $27). I like another price here in Above All Else. Her half-brother Bye Bye Bobby debuted a stakes winner and eventually was runner-up in the Sunland Derby. Her trainer Anna Navarrete’s last 4 debut runners produced a 91-1 winner and 15-1 runner-up. Jockey Luan Machado has been riding well at the meet. We’ve had 16 MSW 6F sprints in Spring Meets for 3-year-olds like this, 6 won by first-time starters, 5 via Fair Grounds and 3 via Gulfstream. None have been won via Turfway, which looking at this field may tilt the preference to the first-timers, which also include Sailing and Queen Anna T at nice prices.

3rd Race

First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters match up over 6 furlongs. Horses with early pace presence have been highly effective in 6F dirt ALW sprints over past Springs Meets with 31 of 35 winners within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile and an average winner a mere neck off the pace at that point. Favorites are 1-5 in dirt ALW sprints so far this meet whole producing 4 winners at juicy 7-2- to 7-1 offerings. These races have been interesting havens for run-backs (horses running back second time at the meet). I’ve spotted 10 such horses attempt to run back in 6F Kee Spring ALW races on dirt, owning a 10: 3-1-1 record and producing win payoffs of $31, $33 and a $3 chalk. Watch out for run-back contender Knicks Storm, a course winner here in Fall ’23, bred to love the track by Dialed In and whose trainer Ben Colebrook has had a run-back winner with similar in Spring ’18. Knicks Storm closed for third opening week when nobody was making up any ground in a tough race vs.

4th Race

Turf sprinters meet in this first-level (N1X) allowance, and we’ll see its split division coming up today in Race 10. We’ve had 10 turf sprints at the Spring Meet after Friday, with 4 winning favorites and 3 winners at 10-1 plus odds. Three of 10 led after the opening half-mile, while the average winner has been just under 2 lengths back at that stage. Turfway preppers lead the way with 3 victories, but note the 5 ALW races at this trip have been split 2-2 between Turfway and Gulfstream preppers. Don’t be afraid of a layoff runner as 5 of 10 winners were making their first start of 2024. Power posts 3-4-5 are historically strong in full-field turf sprints, so give extra looks to Cloudwalker, Twirl Around and Baraye barring scratches. Baraye goes for Keeneland leading turf sprint trainer Wesley Ward, who has 1 turf sprint win this meet and is operating quieter than usual in this division. Irad Ortiz Jr. has won a pair of turf sprint stakes at the current meet and pairs with Musical Prayer.

5th Race

Mid-level claimers stretch out to 1-1/8 miles on dirt to start the pick 6. We don’t see many 9F claimers on dirt in Sprint Meets, 8 of them so far, in fact. Favorites are 4-8, notably with 6 of 8 winners within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Early speed has held sway, while 5 of 8 were making surface changes from synthetic or turf. What a melting pot we have as 8 of the 9 entrants have not raced on the Keeneland dirt prior, and note last-out locales numbering 8 among these 9 – Parx, Fair Grounds, Turfway, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, Mountaineer, Penn National, Oaklawn. Only at Keenland! Saqueel projects to have some inside speed for a Mike Maker barn that excels here during Week 3 of Spring Meets historically and a barn that owns 2 of the 8 Spring Meet 9F CLM wins in our database. He chased a horse last out at Oaklawn who is in raging form with 3 recent wins. Horses exiting Aqueduct races have performed well at the meet with 5 wins, including 2 on Friday. Divine Armor and Systemic Change exit the NYRA circuit and should be factors.

6th Race

Second-level (N2X) allowance turf milers open the late pick 5. Favorites won 5 of 8 turf route ALW races after Friday’s split of a pair. Gulfstream preppers own 4 of the wins, Fair Grounds swept both on the card Friday. A whopping 34 of 77 Spring Meet turf mile ALW races in our database have been won by horses making their first start of the year, so embrace a layoff on a horse you like. Gulfstream preppers also account for 22 of those 77. Misread comes in fresh since August, is draw very well and is a granddaughter of 2006 Jenny Wiley winner Wend, a star mare who took to this course. She’s one of 7 runners among these 12 making her first start of 2024. Another of those is Glittering Lights for trainer Brendan Walsh, whose horses are running well this week as expected, based on his past Week 3 Spring Meet results. Several of the favorites are drawn very wide in this race, opening the door for some price chances. Beyond the 5 winning turf route ALW favorites this meet were 9-1, 21-1 and 22-1 upsetters. This feels on the upset tilt. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

7th Race

Three-year-old maiden special weights sprint the about 7-furlong trip as the late pick 4 begins. We’ve had 9 MSWs for the 3YOs this current meet, with 4 winning favorites and 8 of 9 winners 3-1 or less odds. It’s typical to see chalk in these kind of races historically. Morning line chalk She’s Wicked Smart hasn’t raced since Saratoga, but debuted a promising third behind eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and recent Ashland second-place finisher Just FYI. Sarir is second choice in the ML for Wesley Ward, the meet’s leading trainer by wins. She showed speed at Aqueduct in 2 tries, and note horses exiting Aqueduct races have performed well at the meet with 5 wins, including 2 on Friday. On pedigree, Good Magic filly Halstyn Rose and Into Mischief second-timer Illusion could love the dirt at Keeneland. If there’s a big upset to be had here, don’t sleep on Justify Perfection, whose dirt race wasn’t as bad as it seems on paper, adds blinkers and should get a fast pace to rally into at a price.

8th Race

Saturday’s co-feature is the Grade 2 $250,000 Elkhorn Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf. Favorite Bold Act looks to give trainer Charlie Appleby a second graded turf stakes win of the current meet, following Maker’s Mark Mile winner Master of the Seas (Appleby also has Silver Knott in this race). Also note jockey Frankie Dettori looks for a second major after Beaute Cachee’s victory in the Jenny Wiley. Over the 17 years of the Elkhorn in our database, horses exiting Gulfstream preps have won 9 times. The average winner of this race has been 4-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, and only 3 of the 17 winners were within a length of the front that stage. Horses making their first start of the year account for only 2 of the wins, so look for some recent form. Give an edge to those who ran 1-3/8 miles or farther last out as they account for 12 of 17 wins. Bold Act won the Sycamore Stakes in Fall ’23 over this same trip, the same race won by Highland Chief in Fall ’22 (latter to be piloted by 3-time Elkorn winner John Velazquez). Interesting pedigrees for this course and/or trip belong to Missed the Cut, by sharp Kee turf sire Quality Road, as well as Dynadrive, whose grandsire Dynaformer was fantastic was his offspring in these turf marathons locally. Trainer Mike maker has 4 wins in this race, topping active trainers, and sends out Dynadrive and Lucky Curlin.  KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

9th Race

The Grade 3 $300,000 Ben Ali is co-featured today at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Since returning to dirt 8 years ago, favorites are 2-for-8 but have dropped 6 straight. But 7 of 8 winners were 6-1 or less, making it a very good betting race historically. The last winner to lead after the first half-mile was Protonico in 2015, while the last 7 winners have average 3-3/4 lengths off the lead at that juncture. Preppers from Fair Grounds (3) and Tampa (2) have found success. Smile Happy trainer Kenny McPeek has won this race 3 times since 2014, twice since the dirt return. Smile Happy was a debut MSW winner here and runner-up in the ’22 Blue Grass Stakes, an obvious horse-for-course. Dynamic One finished second in this race in 2022 and makes his second Kee start for Todd Pletcher, who also has Kingsbarns. Pletcher has won this race both on dirt and Polytrack.

10th Race

Turf allowance sprinters wrap the card in this split division of Race 4 today. We’ve had 10 turf sprints at the Spring Meet after Friday, with 4 winning favorites and 3 winners at 10-1 plus odds. Three of 10 led after the opening half-mile, while the average winner has been just under 2 lengths back at that stage. Turfway preppers lead the way with 3 victories, but note the 5 ALW races at this trip have been split 2-2 between Turfway and Gulfstream preppers. Don’t be afraid of a layoff runner as 5 of 10 winners were making their first start of 2024. Power posts 3-4-5 are historically strong in full-field turf sprints, so give extra looks to Caberneigh, Empires Passion and Definite Diva barring scratches. Irad Ortiz Jr. has won a pair of turf sprint stakes at the current meet and pairs with Definite Diva. Corey Lanerie speed-popped the field from a power post Friday aboard our $35 top-pick winner Monsieur Candy and has Empires Princess in this one from a great draw, though likely to be rallying. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.