Jeremy's Blue Grass Tuesday Keeneland Final Picks / Thoughts
Fast track-good turf as we hit Day 3 at Keeneland and a remarkable surface turnaround. Kudos to the maintenance staff. The track played fair enough Monday with speed winning 7 of 9 on the main (typically will win 2/3rds anywhere in the country on dirt).
Expect a lean to speed today but not reliant upon it when races have a fast pace and set up for a closer. That’s what I’m looking for in a few spots, chiefly the Race 7 Commonwealth Stakes, where #5 Nutella Fella is a key component to my day and should be rallying behind a fast pace set-up.
Scratches are in and Scylla coming out of the Race 8 Madison has been known for a few days, but nonetheless a big defection as the favorite. The only race I lost any horses to with scratches were underneath choices in Race 4, but top pick remains.
As for the Blue Grass, I have contender for a few months that Owen Almighty is better than he’s been given credit. His success or failure today might lie in the pace. He doesn’t need the lead, but if Jose Ortiz aboard gifts the front to brother Irad on River Thames, the task gets tougher. I want to see him aggressive throughout the going - and we’ll hope that the old version of East Avenue doesn’t show back up with a big up front presence.
Updated picks:
