Jeremy Plonk's Wednesday Keeneland Updated Picks After Scratches
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, April 17, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Week 3 kicks off with an 8-race card where Races 4 and 5 are keys to the early and late multi-race wagers. With a heavy Wesley Ward favorite in Race 4, that will factor into the ticket construction for today’s pick 4s and pick 5s.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with just 1 grass race slated.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Forecasts call for a 90% chance of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the conditions and be flexible.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Maiden special weight 3-year-olds route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the pick 5. The 7 such elder dirt MSW races this Spring Meet have been very formful with 4-of-7 winning favorites and an average winner 3-1 odds. The trends are very tricky in this race as they work against most every horse who looks best on paper. In 43 Spring MSW dirt routes, 33 winners last raced at a mile or longer (only 4 raced less than 7 furlongs last out); only 6 of 43 were making their first start of the year; none have been won by first-time starters. If you honor those, only Razzle Red and Sanctity exit mile-plus races this year. Gulfstream preppers have an astounding 21 of those 43 wins, so Razzle Red would be the fit. I’m not wild about his debut turf effort at Gulfstream and will be spreading deep if playing this race.
2nd Race
Lower-end $16,000 claimers extend to 1-1/8 miles on dirt in the early pick 4 opener. The 1-1/8 miles distance is unique at this class level as we’ve only had 7 such 9F claimers in Spring Meets on dirt. They’ve been formful with 4-of-7 winning favorites and 6 of 7 races won by horses 4-1 or less odds. All 7 winners exited 2-turn preps, something Ministerial will try to buck, though that one is a local winner routing. Turfway preppers make up half of the 10-horse field and notably have won half of the 8 claiming races on dirt the first 2 weeks of the Spring Meet. Shortlist might be the most reliable of the Turfway 5-pack at this class level. But I’m leaning heavily to the non-TP entrants in this one. Candy for Carmel’s last at Santa Anita looks good enough to win here. Kahala has been a different horse since being claimed 2 starts back. All West goes for a Keith Desormeaux barn that won a dirt route claimer here Sunday. Similar to Race 1, there’s no strong opinion here.
3rd Race
Elder maiden special weights battle over 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the pick 6 begins. The 7 such elder dirt MSW races this Spring Meet have been very formful with 4-of-7 winning favorites and an average winner 3-1 odds. In 43 Spring MSW dirt routes, 33 winners last raced at a mile or longer (only 4 raced less than 7 furlongs last out); only 6 of 43 were making their first start of the year; none have been won by first-time starters (bad for Neon Icon, whose sire Arrogate has 3 winners on dirt at the current meet). Similar to Race 1, if you honor those trends, only A Dollar A Day and Foreseen exit mile-plus races this year. Gulfstream preppers have an astounding 21 of those 43 wins, which is more good news for Foreseen. Now, the twist from Race 1. This is for 3-year-olds and older. The older horses have won two-thirds of these races for MSW routers on dirt in Spring Meets past, which Foreseen, Dynamism and Neon Icon would be trying to buck. A good post, tactical speed, pedigree to like Kee and a jockey riding 24% at this trip locally in John Velazquez, put me reluctantly on Dynamism. The trends – and my handicapping – are torn once again early on this card.
4th Race
The 2-year-olds dash 4-1/2 furlongs to start the late pick 5. Trainer Wesley Ward has won 3 of the 4 baby dashes this meet and 44 of the 81 offered on dirt since 2015. There’s no rocket science in going with well-meant Bostonian, who has trained sharp locally and entered a few times this meet and finally gets his chance to shine. Jockey Walter Rodriguez rode Ward’s 2YO winner here last Thursday (Perfect Shances) and is entrusted with another favorite. Sire Frosted had a couple of baby dash winners here in 2021 and is represented by Jet Sweep Joe, whose trainer Paul McEntee engineered one of those Frosted scores at 11-1. Jet Sweet Joe’s jockey Albin Jiminez has a strong history in these baby dashes at Keeneland and is capable if Ward’s runner misfires. Strummin was a debut second here April 5 and runs back on 12 days rest for 9-time baby dash winner John Hancock, second-most of any trainer. Note only 3 run-back winners at the meet have won baby dashes (2015, 2017, 2021), the middle of which was trained by Hancock.
5th Race
The late pick 4 opens with a 7-furlong claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) or open 3-year-olds. This dual-condition specifically is unique at Keeneland as we’re used to seeing N3L races included in the dual-condition situation. Looking at Spring Meet claimers with 3-year-olds and up, the sophomores only win about 20% of the races, so the lean goes to the elders and has played out in 5 of the 6 such races so far this meeting. That tilts my favor to Baytown Lovely, whose Keeneland baby dash win here in ’22 is the best maiden win on paper to boot with these N2Ls. Dancing Nancy tops the 3YOs with her $50,000 MCL score at Churchill and she has a decent race over the track previously for a Joe Sharp barn having a good meet. I’ll focus on that pair in a key swing race in the multi-race bets.
6th Race
Starter allowance sprinters match up over 6 furlongs on dirt. We’ve had 8 starter allowances the first 2 weeks of the meet, boasting 4 winning favorites, an average winner at 3-1 odds and only 1 winner over 7-2 odds. Turfway (4) and Fair Grounds (3) have dominated the wins. With FG absent here, Marmalade Skye is the lone TP rep and will meet 3 from Oaklawn and a pair of layoff horses from Ellis last summer. In 33 spring starter allowance sprints on dirt, only 2 winners were making their first starts of the calendar year like Mrs. Rip and Crackalacking attempt (though note both have come this current meet). Popperina and De’ Ans Eighty come out of the same March 24 race at Oaklawn and were separated by only three-quarters of a length. The OP set has been effective here in starter allowances over the year, winning at least one in 6 of the last 7 Spring Meets. Marmalade Skye and Crackalacking have some local experience and both have run well over the track.
7th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance turf performers give us our lone grass race on the card. We’ve already had 8 turf ALW races at the Spring Meet, favorites winning 6 of those. Gulfstream preppers have won 5 of those, good news for Weyhill Road, What Say Thee and Porquerolles. Weyhill Road is sired by Quality Road, who had 4 winners on the Keeneland turf last year and already a win and a second at the current meet. His trainer Shug McGaughey won a turf route ALW Sunday via Gulfstream as well, his 19th in a Kee Spring Meet in our database, trailing only Chad Brown (25) and tied with Bill Mott (19). Graham Motion has a solid 16 Spring turf route ALW wins and sends out Porquerolles, while Mike Maker (12) saddles What Say Thee. McGaughey (6) and Motion (5) lead all trainers at this specific 9F turf distance in Spring ALW race wins.
8th Race
Maiden claimers sprint 7 furlongs to close the Wednesday action. We’re reminded to look for prices in these spots, and Week 2 delivered them once again. Horses 10-1 odds or higher have now won 10 of 29 Spring Meet 7F MCL races on dirt, last week’s quartet delivering 6-5, 14-1, 6-1 and 10-1 victories. Turfway preppers won 3 of those 4 last week, but it’s a narrow 7-5-4-4 margin overall for TP over Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds. Experienced runners have won 24 of the 29 with a solid edge over first-time starters like Indy Magic, a rookie whose workouts and pedigree suggest he’ll be live. Price players like Contemplation and Patriarchal could fit the mold on surface changes and cut back in distance, which have been just as effective as those adding distance, split evenly in victories at this class/trip. The 3-year-olds have actually been far more effective than the elders in these matchups over the years, so don’t over-inflated that for favorites Trumptastic (age 5) and and Olivier (age 4).