Jeremy Plonk's Updated Thursday Keeneland Picks After Scratches
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, April 11, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Fingers-crossed we can keep on turf as Race 6 includes 2023 Appalachian winner Pailio and 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies runner-up Pleasant Passage in their homecomings. Five dirt routes are scheduled with as many as seven routes carded including turf in today’s 9 races. Top local riders in dirt routes include Brian Hernandez Jr., Corey Lanerie and Florent Geroux, in addition to expected leaders Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez. Give them an extra look.
Bettors have been welcomed back with a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with grass races slated only in Race 6 and 8.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Rain is in the forecast throughout the week so keep an eye on updated conditions and be flexible.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Starter allowance runners compete over 1-1/16 miles on dirt to kick off the early pick 5. Favorites are just 2-15 in Spring dirt route starter allowances and we’ve had more winners (3) at 10-1 odds or more. Fair Grounds preppers own a 5-3 edge over Oaklawn with Gulfstream and Turfway close up (2). It Wasn’t Me represents Fair Grounds and note top local dirt route jockey Brian Hernadez Jr. in the saddle. Three of these are prior winners over the track, including Little Dixie, Jackie’s Love and Chiquita Mosca. All 8 of these runners make a surface change from synthetic or turf last out, so dig deeper into the dirt form.
2nd Race
Two-year-old dashers match up at 4-1/2 furlongs in the early pick 4 opener. It’s our third juvenile heat of the young meet. Heading into Week 2, Wesley Ward has won 42 of 79 of these over the years on dirt, including 1 of 2 so far this season. He’s got Image of Me and Perfect Shances both entered. Image of Me, is a son of Keeneland star Hootenanny, who sired a pair of local 2YO Spring winners in 2023. If you’re into lightning striking twice, note that Sunday’s 2YO winner The Queens M G scored a 45-1 upset, far and away the largest in a baby dash since the return to dirt (prior high 21-1). That runner broke many molds, including the demand for a local workout, which still shows 66 of 79. Her Holy Name has local drills and her trainer John Hancock is second among local trainers with 2YO wins (9).
3rd Race
Bottom-level maiden claimers extend the trip to 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Coming into Week 2, we’ve only had 6 MCL dirt routes at this long distance in Spring Meets, but favorites own 4 wins and horses 5-2 or less odds have won 5 times. All 6 prepped at a mile-plus, while note only 1 late-running closer had success. A well-backed runner near the front has proven best. Blue Vortex makes a lot of sense and note trainer Joe Sharp’s 7 wins over 9F trips at Keeneland, ranking only behind Todd Pletcher and Kenny McPeek, the latter sending out Silent Secretary and Tres Chic. McPeek also has 4 Spring Meet MCL route wins on dirt, tied with Mike Maker for most. Don’t be afraid of a surface change as 18 of 44 MCL dirt route winners did so, notably 3 of 5 winners last meet coming via Turfway’s synthetic.
4th Race
Elder maiden special weights sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in the first leg of the pick 6. It’s our first of the meet for 3-year-olds and up, and we’ve had 28 such races in Spring Meets over all distances. Favorites are a strong 15-28. Early speed dominates sprints at this class and age group with the 13 winners average a quarter-length lead after the opening half-mile, one of the more heavily titled speed profiles you’ll see at Keeneland. Gulfstream preppers dominate with a 12-3 edge over Fair Grounds. Well-backed, speed, Gulfstream-prepped favorite Jefferson Street makes all the sense, and his sire Street Sense had 2 wins opening week to go with his strong showing here in 2023. Trainer Rick Dutrow had a win and a third in 3 starts opening weekend and sends out Midway Lights and Cage Match.
5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. In 68 prior Spring Meet N2L claimers, wins are split 19-18 on top between Turfway and Fair Grounds preppers; Oaklawn’s 7 and Gulfstream’s 6 trail. They play fair in terms of prices with about 36% winning favorites and an average winner just over 4-1. In 27 such routes at this level, 23 winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner just 1 length back at that point). Only 4 of 28 winners moved sprint to route. Welaka and Fan the Fire are the only local winners in the field and fit the conditions of this race beautifully with prior local maiden special weight wins easily best in the field. Both will try to buck the trend in stretching out off sprints. Luke is well-drawn with some early pace and exits routes at Fair Grounds; he’d be no surprise. Write Off Jerry may be best of the TP set and has pace versatility.
6th Race
Second-level (N2X) turf allowance routers clash to start the late pick 4. Turf route ALW races produce only 28.4% winning favorites, far underperforming expectations. Gulfstream preppers have had the insanely big edge in prep circuits in these races in Spring Meets, 122-26 over Fair Grounds. That’s good news for Ro Town, Spansive, Swoop to Finish and Papilio (the ’23 Appalachian Stakes winner over this course). Six of 7 turf route winners opening weekend were within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Soft conditions could favor Papilio’s Irish experience and international bloodlines, as well as Pleasant Passage’s win over yielding ground in her second career start. Main-track only entrant Story Hour becomes the play in an off-the-turf situation, while Ro Town appears most versatile to either surface.
7th Race
Dual-condition claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt in this one. Favorites are 16-33 at this class level in Spring Meets on dirt, and an average winner just 7-2 odds. Logical players here include class-dropping Cooke Creek and last-out beaten favorite Harold’s Cloud. Meanwhle, Yono is the only winner over the track to date and is 2-for-2 on wet going if the forecast for rain holds. Nine of 11 dual-condition claiming route winners were within 3 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, so be skeptical of deep closers. I don’t have a high level of trust for this race despite the historical trends saying to trust it. Definitely will be spreading in any multi-race bets.
8th Race
Thursday’s feature race is a turf route allowance at 1-1/8 miles with a capacity field of 12. Turf route ALW races produce only 28.4% winning favorites, far underperforming expectations. Gulfstream preppers have had the insanely big edge in prep circuits in these races in Spring Meets, 122-26 over Fair Grounds. That’s good news for Fort Washington, the lone GP rep. Four runners in this lineup already own Kee turf ALW local wins: Bay Street Money, El Kabong, They Grey Wizard and Limited Liability, the latter doing so twice. Soft turf conditions would likely benefit The Grey Wizard’s international experience and bloodlines, as well as Limited Liability, who has won over ground with some give to it. If transferred to main track, speed pop chance with pricey Gunton Rose, and obvious respect for classy dirt horses Giant Game and Hayes Strike entered main-track only.
9th Race
The finale is a split division of today’s Race 5, a non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. In 68 prior Spring Meet N2L claimers, wins are split 19-18 on top between Turfway and Fair Grounds preppers; Oaklawn’s 7 and Gulfstream’s 6 trail. They play fair in terms of prices with about 36% winning favorites and an average winner just over 4-1. In 27 such routes at this level, 23 winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner just 1 length back at that point). Only 4 of 28 winners moved sprint to route. Rock Star Doctor has a win over the track with a pressing effort and lures top pilot Tyler Gaffalione. Sire Connect had 5 winners last year on the Kee dirt from just 19 starters, including this filly. Rock Star Doctor and Perfectly Wicked have the best maiden wins on their resumes in this N2L, a handicapping angle I like no matter the track I’m playing.