Jeremy Plonk's UPDATED Keeneland Sunday Selections / Analysis
We’re off the turf and on a sloppy main track for the opening Sunday of racing at Keeneland. Given the track conditions, scratches and surface changes abound, so pick your spots judiciously. My advice on wet tracks is to look for:
1) prior experience - good or bad to enhance or eliminate
2) early speed - typically even tougher on a wet track
3) pedigree plays - harder to find and trust
Here are my updated selections after scratches, and see below the late pick 4 ticket I put together for 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.
Keeneland’s opening Sunday card may be a few days late, but we’re anxious to get the 16 programs for the Spring off and running. First post 1 pm ET and the late pick 4 features a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Here’s how I see the sequence following the surface changes (sloppy main / OFF TURF) and announced scratches as of 11:30 am ET.
Race 7
Talented group of maidens with several good options here. I prefer to spread in races with good options vs. bad fields where you’re just hoping to find one good enough. Get coverage here. #1 Heavenly Sunset eliminates a lot of variables being rail speed and takes them as far as she can on the stretchout. Others to use include #5 Plaza Cue, #2 Salted, #9 In the Stars, #11 Ghanaayem and #6 Miss Authentic.
Race 8
Palisades Stakes was moved off the turf to 5-1/2 furlongs on the main track. #1 Long Neck Paula beat the boys on dirt here last Fall, but her last on synthetic was poor. Forgivable, yes. But it makes it her tough to single. The Omaha Beach offspring have been super at Kee on dirt, so include #3 Normandy Coast.
Race 9
My separator race in the pick 4 will be singling #5 Stunner in the featured Grade 3 Beaumont. She was between horses nearly the entire trip when stablemate (now scratcherd) Eclatant beat her at Gulfstream. Now drawn widest in a small field, Flavien Prat can get the preferred trip more comfortably this time. Respect #3 G W’s Girl, but rolling with Brad Cox and Prat, who aim for a fourth straight Beaumont in tandem.
Race 10
Off-the-turf endurance test at 1-1/8 miles in which the best horses left for dirt may be a bit suspect at the distance, so I’ll include a few. #10 Money Supply is a Grade 3 winner in the slop and gets the nod. #3 Deterministic, #6 Strong Quality, #9 Injunction are worthy.
The ticket:
1,5,2,9,11,6 w/ 1,3 w/ 5 w/ 10,3,6,9 for $24 for each $.50