Jeremy Plonk's Oaks Day Keys + Important Derby Day Notice
Similar to Breeders’ Cup Friday, Kentucky Oaks Day will be just an appetizer for my betting. At least 80% of my weekend budget was to be aimed at the premier day with the bigger pools and field sizes on Saturday. The Derby Day pools also are more inefficient with far more casual money being bet by once-a-year types than any other day on the calendar, giving seasoned horseplayers more edge than Oaks Day, which trends more to hardcore followers.
This year’s Oaks card unfortunately is overloaded with big-name runners and feels full of pitfalls up and dock the lineup. Take the short prices or stab on what might be a dicey weather day? Winners either paying $3 or $30 provide a rough environment. I’ll limit activities to a few key plays and go nowhere near my 20% budget forecast.
Race 3: maiden
#6 World Beater (6-1 ML odds)
#12 Moon Channel (6-1 ML odds)
These 2 both come out of Keeneland runner-up efforts behind freakishly good maiden winners. World Beater overcame a lousy post, while Moon Channel got no pace help and was giving away experience at a level/trip few rookies find success at Keeneland.
Race 9: Eight Belles
#7 Mendela (15-1 ML odds)
Visually fantastic maiden breaker from Oaklawn last out takes a class hike but won’t surprise me if she’s this good. Obviously the one to fear is favorite #12 Eclatant, who doesn’t have any real knocks. If we’re right, Mendela delivers the day. A 12-7 exacta likely plays and pays nicely as well. I want to get in and out of this price play in the chalky daily double races surrounding Mendela. Race 8 DD 7,8 with 7 … Race 9 DD 7 with 4,9.
Race 11: Kentucky Oaks
Sometimes you’ve got nothing for a big race. I wanted to back Five G in the Kentucky Oaks, but she scratched. Favorite #11 Good Cheer probably proves best, but the upset chance would come up front in a race that I don’t think will overheat early. That’s why I liked Five G in the first place. The pace now likely will be controlled by #2 Simply Joking (10-1 ML odds) and #7 La Cara (6-1 ML odds), the next-best hopes.
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I’ll provide a free Kentucky Derby Day email with some overviews of the card and final thoughts. If you’d like to get full-card analysis for Saturday, I kindly ask you to become a paid subscriber at whatever level you feel comfortable. See the button below.
If you’re already a paid subscriber (thank you!), you’re all set — look forward to my full-card Saturday picks delivered by email first thing on Derby Day morning.
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