Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Updated Wednesday Picks After Scratches + Stats, Trends
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, April 24, 2024
What to Watch for Today: A $56,441 Pick 6 carryover welcomes horseplayers to closing week of the Spring Meet, a 3-day stand that runs Wednesday through Friday. With an 8-race card, Races 4 and 5 are meshed in nearly all the day’s multi-race bets and become a focus of our handicapping efforts.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 4,6,8.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Mostly sunny skies with temps nearing the mid-60s are in the forecast for a beautiful day. Expect fast and firm conditions.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
A 6-furlong non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer kicks off the early pick 5. Favorites are 5-14 this current meet in claiming races with an average winner 4-1 odds (high 10-1). Turfway preppers have 6 of the wins, leading Fair Grounds and Tampa (2 each). The 7 claiming sprints have been dominated by early speed with 6 winners on or near the lead after the first half-mile (average winner three-quarters of a length ahead at that point). Hijack the Party has early foot via Turfway Park and would be a decent fit along with Family Factor. Morning line favorite Shogun Be Fast has the best maiden win in this N2L (a Churchill maiden special weight), but note this is a 3YO taking on elders.
2nd Race
The baby dashers line up in the first leg of the early pick 4. Wesley Ward has won 5 of the 7 offerings this meeting (5 of 6 he’s had an entrant) and the public hasn’t missed a beat with 6 of 7 favorites scoring. Ward will have Caribbean Wind likely favored from the rail, and notably post 1 has won 4 of the 7 baby dashes this meet. All Ward has done is win 46 of 83 baby dashes since 2015. Steve Asmussen used to be strong in these races during the Polytrack era, but he’s had just 2 dirt wins, both coming in 2017, though his entrant Sunday ran a dynamite second to Ward and he’ll be back with Tapit First this time. Mo Pics Please goes for John Hancock, a 9-time baby dash winner here at Keeneland but shutout so far this season with several placings. Horses running back second time at the meet have only 3 wins in baby dashes (2015, 2017, 2021), like Baytown Storm, Whatintheliteral and Street Lass attempt here.
3rd Race
Three-year-olds and older maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on the dirt to start the $56K carryover pick 6. Favorites are 3-13 in MCL races this current meet with an average winner a juicy 7-1. As many winners 10-1 or more (3) have won as favorites. Turfway runners are dominating with 8 wins (Oaklawn next with 2). That’s good news here for Drury Lane, Track Light, Ice Time and Du Monde. Kenny McPeek (Vincita) has a pair of MCL wins at the meet, while Brendan Walsh (Drury Lane) and Joe Sharp (Ice Time) both look for their second. Walsh is coming off a huge, 4-win Week 3 of the Meet, where he matched Wesley Ward for most weekly wins by any trainer.
4th Race
Elder turf mile maiden special weights match up in this swing race between the early and late pick 5. So far there have been 8 turf route MSW races at the current meet, favorites winning 4 and an average winner a rock-solid 9-2 price. The average winner has been 3-1/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile with only 1 winner leading at that point. It’s been a real mixed bag with 2 winners making their first start of the year, 2 making their career debuts, 2 via Turfway and 1 each from Gulfstream and Tampa. Trainer Chad Brown has had 2 turf route MSW winners at the meet and goes again with favored Unit Economics via Gulfstream. Brown’s 5 Kee turf mile MSW victories here over the years tops all active trainers. Turfway reps number five, most interesting to me is Mohtafil. Trainer Ian Wilkes has had good success during closing week of the last 3 Spring Meets and could have Uno Mas Bourbon of interest exiting a layoff. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
5th Race
Maiden claiming sprinters go 6 furlongs in this swing race between the early and late pick 4. Favorites are 3-13 in MCL races this current meet with an average winner a juicy 7-1. As many winners 10-1 or more (3) have won as favorites. Turfway runners are dominating with 8 wins (Oaklawn next with 2). That’s good news here for 6 of the 11 entrants, most interesting of which are Tiger’s Legacy and Oy Vey to these eyes. Here Worship makes a big class drop for Brad Cox and should be heavily favored. He’s 12-40 (30%) wins at Keeneland in the MSW-MCL drop and 9-23 when favored (39%) on the move. Air Force Cruising trainer Eddie Kenneally has been a MCL maestro at Keeneland over the years; he’s 11-33 in Spring Meets in MCL with a $1.58 ROI for every $1 bet. Trainer Cherie DeVaux (Oy Vey) has had a remarkable meeting. She’s 7: 5-2-0 at the meet with horses under 6-1 odds. Good options in this race to go deeper than just accepting the heavy ML favorite.
6th Race
This one is a turf marathon first-level (N1X) allowance at 1-1/2 miles. We’ve had 36 turf marathon ALW routes in Spring Meets since 2008, favorites winning 12 and an average winner a solid 5-1. These have been good betting races. Gulfstream preppers have dominated with 19 wins (Tampa next-best with 4). The average winner is nearly 5 lengths back after the opening half-mile. The GP reps here are Viva La Red, I’m a Sure Thing, Maria’s Revenge and Mint Edition. The latter is interesting at 30-1 ML odds as trainer Ian Wilkes has been one of the most effective Week 4 trainers at Keeneland over the past 3 years. This mare is bred to run longer than she’s been given the chance to at Keeneland and perhaps will like the marathon trip. The likely favorites in this race are Viva La Red, who is 1-22 lifetime on the win end and drops in class, and I’m a Sure Thing, who took 7 chances to break her maiden and did so at 1-2 odds last time. Pedigree-wise, I love seeing grandsire Dynaformer show up for Holy Foley; his influence in turf marathons here once was a blind-bet for me. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
7th Race
Wednesday’s feature race is a second-level (N2X) allowance sprint at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 6-18 in dirt ALW races at the current meet with all 18 winners 7-1 or less (average winner 3-1). Stick close to the script. Gulfstream preppers have been easily best with 7 winners (Aqueduct, Oaklawn next with 3 each). With no GP runners here, Amaretti via Aqu could be well-placed for Bill Mott, who won a similar 6F ALW sprint here opening weekend with Billal. All 7 ALW sprint winners on dirt this meet have been within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner a half-length back at that point). You want to be up in the early mix. Brad Cox has a pair of ALW sprint wins on dirt this stanza and aims for a third with Howl, a smashing winner here in her October debut. Accede was also a ’23 Fall winner here for Chad Brown. Evadean is by Connect, a solid Kee dirt sire and may like the first run over this track.
8th Race
A split division of Race 4, elder turf mile maiden special weights wrap the card. So far there have been 8 turf route MSW races at the current meet, favorites winning 4 and an average winner a rock-solid 9-2 price. The average winner has been 3-1/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile with only 1 winner leading at that point. It’s been a real mixed bag with 2 winners making their first start of the year, 2 making their career debuts, 2 via Turfway and 1 each from Gulfstream and Tampa. Trainer Chad Brown has had 2 turf route MSW winners at the meet and goes again with morning line favorite Unit John the Beer Man via Gulfstream. Brown’s 5 Kee turf mile MSW victories here over the years tops all active trainers. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has had a remarkable meeting and brings the Frankel colt Rebel Red off a 1-1/2 year layoff in his US unveiling. She’s 7: 5-2-0 at the meet with horses under 6-1 odds. Sire Justify has had a pair of turf wins at the meeting, including Buchu in the Appalachian Stakes, and is represented by Todd Pletcher-trained rookie Thermoscope. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.