Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Saturday Stats, Trends & Picks
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, April 6, 2024
What to Watch for Today: The historic 100th edition of the Blue Grass Stakes takes center stage on a loaded program. The $1 million Grade 1 headliner for Triple Crown hopefuls will be supported by four additional stakes. There's extra juice after opening day's pick 6 went unsolved and stirred a $66,547 carryover that begins in Race 5. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode 3 winners on Friday, while trainer Todd Pletcher added 2 (they teamed to win the Grade 1 Ashland with Leslie's Rose).
Bettors have been welcomed back with a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. Saturday’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be Races 7,9,11 and include the Appalachian and Shakertown Stakes. An additional all-stakes pick 4 has been added to the card on Races 7-10, while the late pick 5 will adjust to accommodate all-stakes in Races 6-10 (not the final 5 on the card as typical).
A special $3 Big Three Pick 3 will be offered between the Blue Grass, Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid to upper 50s are in the forecast.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Three-year-old maiden special weight dirt routers go 1-1/16 miles to open the early pick 5. These races historically are amongst the most predictable at Keeneland with 46.2% winning favorites and an average winner just 3.3-1 odds, by far the lowest payout of any local race division. Those numbers are even more stark in Spring Meets at 58.5% favorites and 2.78-1 odds. The regally bred Tapit-Close Hatches colt Batten Down should be tough with Gulfstream preppers winning 20 of 41 such past Spring MSW routes on dirt, compared to Fair Grounds next-best with just 6. More than three-quarters of these winners exited preps at a mile or farther, something Bourbon Society and Banned for Life try to buck. El Magnifico always seems to be around the finish and his sire Street Sense had 6 dirt winners last year at Kee who won at 25%.
2nd Race
The early pick 4 starts with a 6-furlong entry-level (N1X) allowance sprint. Favorites hit right about average at 34.1% in Kee dirt ALW sprints with an average winner 5-1 odds. We’ve had 11 races at this class/distance on dirt in Spring Meets with the average winner about a head off the lead after the opening half-mile, one of the biggest front-end speed leans you’ll see at Keeneland. None of the 11 winners were more than 2 lengths off the lead at that point. Only 2 of the 11 were won by horses making their first starts of the year like Bledsoe and Pirate attempt. Sire Street Sense had 6 dirt winners last year at Kee who won at 25% and could have forward inside speed here with Billal, fourth in a very productive Swale Stakes edition. Trainer Wesley Ward has Mangione and Bledsoe back at Keeneland after winning baby dashes here in Spring ’23. But note of his 41 baby dash winners here on dirt since 2015, only 4 have later won dirt races at Keeneland (Banree, Kimari, Nakatomi, Stage Left).
3rd Race
Maiden special weight sprinters battle over 7 furlongs. These races are strong for favorites with 43.1% successful in MSW dirt sprints at Kee. The average winner is slightly under 5-1 odds. Experienced runners have accounted for 25 of the 30 such races in Spring Meets on dirt, while 20 of 30 exited 1-turn races (5 FTS, 5 cut-backs). Discreet Mischief exits a solid debut second at Fair Grounds behind stakes-caliber Drip and should be a standout favorite among those who’ve run. His trainer Brad Cox won a similar race here in Spring ’23 via FG with a chalk. Only 3 of the 30 such races were won by horses making their first start of the year like Vesture attempts. Among rookies to watch underneath include Timeout (sire Curlin 7 wins, most of any sire on dirt here last year, 25% win rate); D’oro Unbridled, regally bred son of Medaglia d’Oro-Unbridled Forever; Carnatine, a fast-working son of Uncle Mo whose rider Luis Saez is exceptional at Kee in 7F sprints by win % and ROI; and Counter Attack, an $825K Keeneland September Yearling by Gun Runner.
4th Race
A field of 7 allowance sprinters match up at 6 furlongs. Favorites hit right about average at 34.1% in Kee dirt ALW sprints with an average winner 5-1 odds. Field size factors here as speed is enhanced. The average 6F ALW winner with fields of 7 or less at Keeneland is just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile. Only 5 of 36 such winners were more than 2 lengths back at that stage. There’s not much obvious speed here with Bridleuptothebar potential early gas under Corey Lanerie, who has won more short-field 6F sprints at Kee (20, 21% win rate) than any jockey. Give him a longshot look. Prevalence won the 2022 Commonwealth over this track and distance, but has lost 8 straight over the last 2 years and who knows where his form is after 2 non-efforts on turf and synthetic in Florida? He ran well turf-to-dirt in last year’s Maryland Sprint at Pimlico at least. Miles Ahead and Night Time have trustworthy, stakes-winning form, the latter includes a local ALW victory in the ’23 Fall Meet.
5th Race
The $66K carryover pick 6 opens with a 1-3/16 miles turf maiden special weight. Keeneland’s turf route MSW races have the worst success of winning favorites of any race type locally at just 24.9%. The average winner is just under 7-1 odds. Gulfstream preppers own 6 of 9 wins in such races carded heading into this season, notable for White Palamino, Cyber Attack, Thornbury, Artempus and Tapakena (plus AE-El Rezeen). Sire War Front’s offspring won 4 times on the Kee turf last year (24% win rate) and his son Fort Thomas did have a decent fourth over the track during the Fall Meet. Trainers Chad Brown (White Palomino) and Mike Maker (Cyber Attack) lead all barns with 9 Kee turf MSW wins in Spring Meets. Trainer Shug McGaughey has 5 such wins, 2 during the ’23 Spring Meet, and sends out Stop the Press. About two-thirds of Spring MSW turf route winners are more than 2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile (average 3-1/2 lengths back at that juncture), so look for finishers.
6th Race
The Grade 3 $300,000 Commonwealth for sprinters ushers in the all-stakes pick 5. In the 49 Kee 7F stakes in our database, only 7 winners exited races at a mile or longer and only 4 of those were around 2 turns. Favorites win 45.2% in dirt sprint stakes at Keeneland, one of the most trustworthy divisions offered. In the 8 editions since returning to dirt, only 1 winner led after the opening half-mile with an average winner more than 2-1/2 lengths behind at that point. Each of those 8 Commonwealth winners exited 1-turn races. Horses in recent form have been dominant with 6 winners exiting March outings and the other 2 via February starts. Layoffs have been a negative. Defending champ Here Mi Song returns after last year’s 11-1 upset. Rainse Cain won the 7F Perryville here in October, while Manny Wash won the 2022 Phoenix over 6F among a trio of local stakes winners clashing.
7th Race
The all-stakes pick 4 starts with the Grade 2 $400,000 Appalachian Stakes at a mile on turf. This particular stakes has been formful over the years with favorites 8-17 since 2007 and 16 of those 17 winners were 6-1 or less. Fillies pressing the pace between a half-length and 4-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile own 13 of 17 wins. Gulfstream preppers have easily been best with 8 wins (no other circuit more than 2), including back-to-back wins in ’22-’23. Note 14 of 17 winners exited turf preps between 1 mile and 1-1/8 miles. Trainer Mark Casse has won this 3 of the last 8 years, including a year ago and has Pounce via a Gulfstream mile as a trends fit, as well as Tampa prepper Dancing N Dixie. Buchu won last year’s Jessamine for local 2YO fillies and looks to follow La Coronel and Rushing Fall as fillies to add the Appalachian at age 3 in recent years. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
8th Race
The traditional late pick 4 gets rolling with the Grade 1 $600,000 Madison Stakes at 7 furlongs. Favorites win 45.2% in dirt sprint stakes at Keeneland, one of the most trustworthy divisions offered. Consider the Madison has seen chalks win 4 straight years and 5 of the last 7. In the 49 Kee 7F stakes in our database, only 7 winners exited races at a mile or longer and only 4 of those were around 2 turns. 7 of the last 8 Madison winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Vahva makes her first start of 2024, but note 3 of the last 8 winners of the Madison also made seasonal debuts. She’ll get a Raven Run 1-2 rematch with Alva Starr. The last 7 Madison champs exited sprint preps at 7F or less, which may be a knock to last year’s runner-up Maryquitecontrary, who goes route-to-sprint Saturday.
9th Race
The Spring Meet’s premier turf sprint is up next in the Grade 2 $350,000 Shakertown. It’s a 1-2-3 rematch from the Fall’s Woodford Stakes, led by Arzak, Our Shot and Beer Can Man. Favorites win 40% in Keeneland Turf Sprint stakes, one of the stronger categories of racing here. But with an average winner a juicy 6-1 price, it’s feast or famine. The Shakertown has represented that with 3 straight winning chalks, but note 5 winners at 10-1 or more in the previous 14 years. Layoffs are welcome with 7 of the last 12 winners making their first start of the year, including 3 straight. 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Mischief Magic returns to the scene of his only domestic appearance after wintering in Dubai and Qatar. As we always mention in full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, posts 3-4-5 have a fantastic record, winning 24 of 58 such offerings (41% despite only 25% of the field) and at an average win odds of 10-1 Power posts 3-4-5 belong to Mischief Magic, Beer Can Man and Bad Beat Brian (second in this race last year at 40-1 odds). In the Shakertown, though, the last 6 winners have all been from posts 8-12. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
10th Race
The $1 million Blue Grass Stakes is Saturday’s feature at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. The Blue Grass has been straightforward with 5 favorites on top in the 9 editions since Kee went back to dirt. Six straight winners have been 2-1 or less. While no half-mile leader has won in those 9 races, all but 1 was within 4-1/2 lengths of the front at that juncture. The presser/stalker has been effective. If that style continues, likely favorite Sierra Leone will have to be closer to the pace than he’s shown on paper. Prep locales have been distributed with some evenness but Tampa runners have nabbed 3 wins since 2015, good news for Good Money. All 9 ran 1-1/16 miles or farther in the final prep, something Top Conor, Be You and Just a Touch would have to buck. Five Blue Grass-winning trainers are represented in 8 of the 12 starters. Note 2018 Blue Grass winner Good Magic is the sire of Dornoch and Good Money and that pair could control the pace. Good Magic’s offspring were 5-16 (31%) on the Kee dirt last year, including Dornoch’s maiden win.
11th Race
Turf route allowance performers wrap the day at 1-1/16 miles and this is a stakes-class field. Turf route allowance races produce only 28.4% winning favorites, far underperforming expectations. Gulfstream preppers have had the insanely big edge in prep circuits in these races in Spring Meets, 122-26 over Fair Grounds. Master Piece is the lone GP shipper here and notably won a 2021 Kee 9F ALW on the turf. Chad Brown easily leads Spring Meet turf route ALW wins among trainers with 24 (Shug, Mott with 18 next-best). He can add to that with with Running Bee. Camp Hope won the 2021 Bryan Station here among a 3-for-4 local record. Toyota Super High 5 carryver will be $11,320. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.