Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Friday Stats, Trends & Picks
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 5, 2024
What to Watch for Today: My 32nd consecutive Keeneland meet to provide the daily stats and trends is set to kickoff with a trio of stakes on the 2024 Spring Meet opening day card. The headliner will be the Grade 1 Ashland for Kentucky Oaks prospects featuring the 1-2-3 finishers in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Bettors will be welcomed back with a takeout reduction all season in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points. The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 will be on Races 5,8,10 and includes the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Early and mid-week wet conditions are expected to give way to cloudy skies on a brisk Friday not forecasted to escape the upper 40s. The turf course should have some give to it as it often does in the Spring Meet. Keep an eye on updated conditions.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Starter allowance sprinters open the meet on dirt at the about 7-furlong distance, opening leg of the early pick 5. The average winner in Spring Meet starter allowance races has been 7-2 odds, but that dips to an even more formful 5-2 price when looking at the 27 held at sprint distances. 10 of 12 winners at this class and distance were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, so consider early pace. 9 of 12 were adding distance from their most recent race (only 1 exited a 2-turn prep as many of these bid to do). Those adding distance here include Play Good Pay Good, High Fashion Kate and Idalou – the first 2 of which have early speed and fit the race profile. Play Good Pay Good is the first Keeneland starter for reinstated trainer Rick Dutrow, whose last local win came in the 2009 Shadwell Mile with Court Vision.
2nd Race
Our first baby dash of the Spring Meet comes in the early pick 4 kickoff as juveniles sprint 4-1/2 furlongs. Trainer Wesley Ward has won 41 of the 77 such races offered at Keeneland on dirt. Consider John Hancock next-best with 9 and Mike Maker third-best with just 3. It’s a level of dominance like no other. Ward will saddle Bostonian as well as Shoot It True, but from posts 9 and 12, respectively. Note 60 of these 77 races have been won by posts 1-6, and 18 times we’ve had 11 or 12-horse fields with no winners from the 11 or 12 posts. The other key factor is to demand a local Keeneland workout, possessed by 65 of the 77 past baby dash winners. If you want to beat Ward, Strummin goes for the aforementioned Hancock barn, while Jet Sweep Joe has been working bullets in the a.m. and lures jockey Albin Jimenez, who has a stellar 10-for-20 record in baby dash races at Keeneland (must note that he’s 7-for-10 on Ward trainees, but a solid 3-for-10 for other barns).
3rd Race
Allowance turf sprinters have at it with a field of 9 entered. Field size is critical in turf sprints at Keeneland to the outcome. Smaller field sizes play significantly more favorable to early speed than big fields – 9 or less starters, the average winner is 1-3/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile; 10 or more starters, that jumps to 2-3/4 lengths off the lead on average at the same point. The average winner’s price is 4.8-1 with this field size or less, ballooning to 7.8-1 in the fuller fields. Expect less chaos. Mo Stash was runner-up in the 2022 Indian Summer over this course and distance and won the 2023 Transylvania Stakes routing on this same opening-day card a year ago. Note that 12 of 54 Spring Meet turf sprint allowances in our database were won by horses making their first start of the year like Mo Stash, Awesome Aaron and Red hot Rod attempt. Turfway-prepped horses won 3 of 6 such offerings last Spring. That’s good news for Counterstrike and Molto Vance. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is a strong 27% wins and nearly 50% in the exacta in turf sprints at Kee with smaller field sizes like this; he teams with B D Valeski, a late runner with 2 decent trips over the course under different pilots. This race is loaded with interesting options.
4th Race
Three-year-old maiden special weights match up over 7 furlongs on dirt. Experienced runners have accounted for 25 of the 30 such races in Spring Meets on dirt, though first-time starter Bells Beach will attract attention for Chad Brown. She’s by Curlin, whose offspring won 25% (7-28) on the Kee dirt last year. There’s no shortage of pedigree interest here with Sense of Pearl by Street Sense, whose runners also hit 25% locally (6-24) a year ago on dirt; and Neat Trick, whose sire Good Magic was an even better 31% (5-16) locally with his kin at Keeneland in 2023. Give extra credence to jockey Luis Saez in 7F races at Kee as his 22% win rate and $1.31 ROI for every $1 bet is exceptional. Gulfstream shippers have 9 wins in these races (no other circuit more than 3), boding well for Neat Trick and Bedazzle ‘Em.
5th Race
The pick 6 opens with the day’s first of two 1-3/16 miles turf maiden special weight routes. As the distance might suggest, stamina and fitness are desired. While only 9 such races have been run in Spring Meets, none of the winners were first-time starters and none were making their first start of the year. Gulfstream preppers own 6 of 9 wins, notable for Spinning Class, Talonnade, Swans Cove and Priscilla’s Cove. The average winner was 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Feel free to price shop here as turf route maiden special weights at Keeneland have the lowest percent of winning favorites (24.9% since Fall 2014) compared to any race type offered here. The average winner is nearly 7-1 odds. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
6th Race
Friday’s late pick 5 begins with the $400,000 Lafayette Stakes over 7 furlongs. Idle after 2010, the Lafayette has been brought back to the stakes schedule the past two Spring Meets. Both editions have been won by the half-miler leader who was stretching out off shorter sprint preps. Note 4 of the 8 entrants cut back from mile-plus preps last out, including last year’s Bowman Mill Stakes winner at Keeneland, Glengarry. In the 49 Kee 7F stakes in our database, only 7 winners exited races at a mile or longer and only 4 of those were around 2 turns. The sprinters here adding some trip include Frosty Indulgence, Doncho, Baytown Chatterbox and Booth. Doncho and Booth catch the eye off recent wins, and Booth was fantastic here in the Fall winning his maiden debut over the talented eventual stakes winner Nash. Last year’s winner Corona Bolt was sired by Bolt d’Oro, represented by Bolt At Midnight. Favorites win 45.2% in dirt sprint stakes at Keeneland, one of the most trustworthy divisions offered.
7th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters square off at 6-1/2 furlongs to start the late pick 4. We’ve had 20 such 6-1/2 furlong dirt ALW sprints in Spring Meets, and the average winner just under a shade under 1 length off the lead after the opening half-mile. Only 3 winners rallied from more than 2 lengths back at that point. Don’t be afraid of a fresh horse making her first start of the year as 8 of 20 races at this class/trip have been won such fashion, including 3 of the 5 during the ’23 Spring. Sam’s Treasure and Just Great could be formidable upon their returns. If you’re looking for lightning to strike twice, note Cozee Rags’ debut win at 88-1 here in the Fall Meet was the biggest upset at Keeneland since the start of our database in Fall 2006.
8th Race
The $400,000 Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes at 1-1/16 miles on turf brings a national cast of sophomores together. Favorites have lost the last 4 editions of this race held in Spring (2020 was a summer date during pandemic), but those winners were all between 5-2 and 5-1 odds, making this an excellent betting race. Trainers Brendan Walsh (First World War) and Shug McGaughey (Cugino) tied for the most turf wins during the 2023 Spring Meet with 5 each (Wesley Ward also won 5, all in turf sprints). First World War sire War Front was a sharp 24% winner (4-17) via his offspring on the Kee lawn last year and this colt ran a strong fourth in the Bourbon Stakes. First World War has had about 2 months off since his last year, but note fresh horses have excelled in this race (5 of the last 7 Spring winners were making their first start of the year). Jockey Frankie Dettori, 2-14 here during the ’23 Spring Meet, picks up the mount on Musical Act for Charlie Appleby, whose runners are 11: 4-4-1 at Keeneland since 2022. The give in the turf course expected should be a benefit to those with European experience like Musical Act and the also-eligible Royal Majesty. Lord Bullingdon will try to become the first Transylvania winner via California since Big Score in 2016. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.
9th Race
The featured Grade 1 $600,000 Ashland Stakes has had its share of recent chaos. Four times in its 9 years since returning to dirt, the winner has been 20-1 or more odds (average winner 14.9-1). Just FYI was last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly on the strength of her Frizette and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies wins, beating Ashland return rivals Jody’s Pride and Candied in the latter. Of those, only Jody’s Pride has raced since, winning the Busher at Aqueduct in March. Consider that in the 9 Ashlands back on dirt, only 1 was won by a filly making her first start of the year (Malathaat in 2021). Early speed has been a boon in the Ashland was 6 of those 9 dirt winners were within 1 length of the lead after the opening half-mile. Fair Grounds has produced 3 winners during that time (matched by Tampa Bay Downs) and the FG rep here will be Standoutsensation, who adds blinkers and should be inside speed at a price. Heard that before? Two starts back she was narrowly beaten in an allowance by eventual Fair Grounds Oaks winner and current Kentucky Oaks favorite Tarifa. As for past Ashland success, Todd Pletcher won this in ’21 and ’22 and counters with Candied and Leslie’s Rose, Kenny McPeek upset in at 20-1 a year ago and has Shimmering Allure, and ’10 winner Brad Cox has Impel, so impressive in 2 starts and making her stakes debut as the likely favorite. As for Just FYI, she’s had just 2 workouts since February 24, albeit bullets at Payson Park as she tries to play catch-up with the calendar after missing training time this year.
10th Race
The finale is a split division of Race 5, a 1-3/16 miles turf maiden special weight route. As the distance might suggest, stamina and fitness are desired. While only 9 such races have been run in Spring Meets, none of the winners were first-time starters and none were making their first start of the year. Gulfstream preppers own 6 of 9 wins, notable for Hidden Presence, Mizoula, Redo and also-eligible Mont Saint Michel. The average winner was 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Feel free to price shop here as turf route maiden special weights at Keeneland have the lowest percent of winning favorites (24.9% since Fall 2014) compared to any race type offered here. The average winner is nearly 7-1 odds. Giving GP prepper Redo an extra price look as trainer John Ortiz and jockey Reylu Gutierrez went 2-5 in tandem here in Spring ’23 and are 4 for their last 10 together at Keeneland dating back to Fall ’22. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.