Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Closing Day Friday final picks, stats, trends

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 26, 2024                               

What to Watch for Today: Star turf mare War Like Goddess makes her customary appearance in the featured $300,000 Bewitch Stakes as the 7-year-old seeks the rarest of Keeneland four-peats in a major stakes. Closing day of the 2024 Spring Meet also includes mandatory payouts in all wagers.

Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Temps in the low 70s are forecasted under cloudy skies with a chance of showers late in the day. Keep an eye on the sky.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).                                     

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Two-year-old turf sprinters open the early pick 5. Heading into this week, we’ve only had 5 of these since debuting in Spring ’21, and it’s been the Wesley Ward show. He’s won 4 of the 5, all as favored and 3 at odds-on offerings. Ward sends out Saturday Flirt, a filly he bred and owns. We’ve seen these kind get all the candy in the past. Power posts 3-4-5 are strong plays in full-field turf sprints, so if you want to topple Ward, consider Match Five, Flip Flops and Biv. The most intriguing there may be Flip Flops from young sire and Preakness winner War of Will, who also was accomplished on turf for Mark Casse, who also trains this filly.

2nd Race

The baby dirt dashers line up in the first leg of the early pick 4. Wesley Ward has won 5 of the 8 offerings this meeting (5 of 7 he’s had an entrant) and the public hasn’t missed a beat with 6 of 8 favorites scoring. Ward was narrowly beaten here Wednesday in such a race, but has Spun Lovin and Burning Pine both capable in this spot. He’s still won 46 of the 85 baby dashes since 2015. The only other trainer in this race to win a baby dash at Keeneland is Paul McEntee (with 3, including 1 this meeting), and he saddles Baytown Boo Boo and Baytown Bulleit. Horses running back second time at the meet have only 3 wins in baby dashes (2015, 2017, 2021), like Baytown Boo Boo and Seargeant Capps attempt here.

3rd Race

First-level (N1X) turf allowance milers square off in this one. Through the first 12 turf route ALW races of the meet, 6 favorites have won but we’ve had 3 winners pay $20 plus mutuels. Only 2 winners led after the first half-mile with an average winner 2-1/2 lengths back at that point. Gulfstream preppers hold a 5-3 edge. Layoff runners making their first start of the year long have been successful in Spring Meets in turf miles here, and 2 of the 4 at this same trip this meet have been won in that fashion. Palotta Sisters (by the sharp Kee turf sire Cairo Prince) is the fresh face entered, while Gulfstream rep New Rome has won 4 of her last 5 and could be dangerous near the front.

4th Race

Elder maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs. Gulfstream preppers have won 8 of the 15 MSW dirt races in Spring Meets since 2021 for 3-year-olds and up, including 2 of 3 this current meet, but are absent from the entries. Lean to experience as rookies own just 1 of those 15 wins during that time and only 3 of the 31 wins in this division going back to 2015. All 10 races at this exact class and 6F distance have been won by horses within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Demand speed. Don’t be afraid of a layoff as 3 of 10 winners were making their first starts of the year like five of these 10 entrants bid. The 4-year-olds have some developmental edge to embrace though I love the company lines that fellow sophomores Barbtourage and Barbara T exit from their lone career starts. Torn against that fact they’re meeting elders. Tough race.

5th Race

The pick 6 kicks off with a first-level (N1X) allowance at 1-3/16 miles on turf, the precursor to a split division of this race in today’s finale. Through the first 12 turf route ALW races of the meet, 6 favorites have won but we’ve had 3 winners pay $20 plus mutuels. Only 2 winners led after the first half-mile with an average winner 2-1/2 lengths back at that point. Gulfstream preppers hold a 5-3 edge. We’ve had 40 races in Spring Meets on turf at this unique distance and only 6 were won by the half-mile leader. The average winner has been more than 3-1/2 lengths back at that juncture. The GP cast in this one includes Swiss Slang, Iris’s Dream, Thomas Aquinas and Nomos. They’ve dominated the turf races in Spring Meets at this distance with 21 victories. Iris’s Dream has 1 turf race on his form and it was so impressive visually; if he repeats that, look out. Pedigree-wise consider Quokka via Tampa; he’s by sharp Kee turf sire Noble Mission. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

6th Race

First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters go 6 furlongs in the start to the late pick 5. All 19 dirt ALW races this Spring Meet have been won by horses 7-1 or less (avg. 3-1 odds). Of the 9 dirt ALW sprints at the meet, no winner has closed more than 2-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile (average winner just a half-length back at that point). Gulfstream preppers own a 7-3-3 edge over Oaklawn and Aqueduct in the dirt ALW races this season at all distances, which bodes well for classing GP raider Tivy while in good form. One Giant Leap has inside speed for Wesley Ward, who far and away leads all trainers at Keeneland in Week 4 wins over the last 5 years and has clinched his 10th leading trainer title here. One Giant Leap has a stellar local record. Mullikin, by sharp Kee dirt sire Violence, ran very well here last April and returns off a long layoff and should be forward as well. More than one-third (12-33) of the winners in 6F ALW races in Spring Meets on dirt overall were making their first starts of the calendar year, so don’t hesitate if you like a fresh horse. Ward (4) and Brad Cox (3), who sends out Miracle Worker, have had the most 6F ALW wins here in Spring Meets.

7th Race

The late pick 4 opener is a 6-furlong maiden special weight for 3-year-olds. Through the first 11 MSW races for the 3YOs on dirt this Spring Meet, 5 winning favorites clicked and only 1 winner was above 7-2 odds. Of the 8 such sprints, 7 were won by horses within a head of the lead after the first half-mile, so think speed. Three first-time starters have won the 11 MSWs for this age group on dirt, other wins evenly divided 2 apiece via Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Turfway.  First-time starter Alcove could add to that rookie tally for Brad Cox off a strong series of workouts.

8th Race

The $300,000 Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes serves as the closing-day feature race and all eyes are on 7-year-old War Like Goddess, heroine of this race in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Her last two victories here came off of the winter layoff in her first start of the year like this will be, and note her only Keeneland loss in 4 tries was a commendable third vs. the  boys in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Prior to her success, Gulfstream-prepped horses had 6 of the previous 7 editions, so if you’re going to beat her, consider GP alum Tower Bridge for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who has had a fabulous Spring Meet. Only 1 of 16 Bewitch winners in our database led after the opening half-mile; notably the average winners are more than 5 lengths back at that juncture. Commandandcontrol and Vergara only have 1 Keeneland turf start between them, but both have effective local turf sires in Quality Road and Noble Mission to appreciate the course. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.

9th Race

Third-level (N3X) allowance sprinters meet at 7 furlongs. All 19 dirt ALW races this Spring Meet have been won by horses 7-1 or less (avg. 3-1 odds). Of the 9 dirt ALW sprints at the meet, no winner has closed more than 2-1/2 lengths after the first half-mile (average winner just a half-length back at that point). Gulfstream preppers own a 7-3-3 edge over Oaklawn and Aqueduct in the dirt ALW races this season at all distances, good news for Two Item Saver and Unifying via GP. Riley Mott has 2 dirt ALW wins at the current meet and sends out Unifying. Strong Kee dirt sire Dialed In has Braganza interesting off the layoff, turn-back and bullet workout (LTB) angle I like to employ. He romped here in April ’23 over 7 furlongs.

10th Race

We season draws to a close with a first-level (N1X) allowance at 1-3/16 miles on turf, a split division of Race 5. Through the first 12 turf route ALW races of the meet, 6 favorites have won but we’ve had 3 winners pay $20 plus mutuels. Only 2 winners led after the first half-mile with an average winner 2-1/2 lengths back at that point. Gulfstream preppers hold a 5-3 edge. The GP cast in this one includes Domingo, Izzy d’Oro and Team Captain. They’ve dominated the turf races in Spring Meets at this distance with 21 victories. Catch a Wave would be no surprise for Chad Brown as this son of Curlin is out of Harmonize, who loved Keeneland early in her career, winning the Jessamine at 2 and running second in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at 3. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE.