Jeremy Plonk's final Kentucky Derby Day Notes
The track has been harrowed this morning, which means it’s been opened up and won’t be sealed/sloppy like Oaks Day. A drying out racetrack often produces funky results and demands a lot of stamina. If your horses have struggled to get a distance, this kind of track will make that even more difficult. Rain is forecast sporadically throughout the day, so just keep loose. My opinion on the Kentucky Derby doesn’t depend on the weather. The major players all have had success on wet going … and we’ve seen all running styles succeed in this race when it’s wet from speed to … well … Mine That Bird from the clouds at 50-1.
The turf course will absolutely favor horses with European pedigrees and experience. Soft courses in the US simply do; our horses never get to train on them and rarely get to run over them.
I’m all in on superfecta wagers in the Kentucky Derby. There are 116,250 possible combinations in a 20-horse field, and the losing tickets pay the winners in this parimutuel game love. It’s such a rare mathematical gambling opportunity that I can’t pass it up. Consider a typical 10-horse field has 5,040 superfecta combinations. Does that mean we’re likely to cash our Derby bets? Of course not. It’s not supposed to be easy. But I’m not looking to cash a 10, 20 or even 100% profit in the Kentucky Derby. That’s for every other race in America this year. I’ll look to slay the season without having to invest huge sums of money in doing so.
Fierceness will be my key to everything, including any multi-race bets. That’s how you justify going with a favorite on Derby Day. Leverage him in betting pools that can still pay in spades if you like him, and I do. Price horses underneath in the Derby for me center around Resilience, Domestic Product, Just Steel, Mystik Dan and Honor Marie in that order of preference.
Undercard Key Players
Race 5: Mischief Magic
Race 6: Vahva (Best Bet)
Race 7: Coppice and Chili Flag
Race 8: Longshot looks to Who Dey and Frosty Indulgence
Race 9: Legend of Time (single)
Race 10: no strong opinion, likely Zozos or Tejano Twist (early/late)
Race 11: Front-running Never Surprised exactas underneath Naval Power, I’m Very Busy, Integration
Good luck and enjoy Kentucky Derby Day!