Jeremy Plonk's Final Breeders' Cup Saturday Thoughts
Good luck today. Hope you caught Citizen Bull at an overlay 15-1 yesterday. The Friday turf races didn’t net us anything, but we’ll roll into Saturday with optimism from a nice score in the Friday dirt main event.
My Saturday key to success will be #7 Porta Fortuna in the Mile (Race 11). My key longshot will be #2 Gun Pilot in the Sprint (Race 10).
Check out our weekly 1/ST Call podcast with myself and the legendary handicapper Jeff Siegel. Hope you enjoy as we take you through all 9 races.
If you missed Friday’s Substack send, here are my race-by-race notes repeated for your convenience:
R4: F&M Sprint
Could envision as many as 7 of these being good enough on their best days, but I trust #4 Vahva most to run her best race. That said, I don’t see her best race as good enough to beat the very best race for #6 Society or #9 Ways and Means. And that trio figures to comprise the top 3 betting choices in some fashion. Better plays to come; a skip. From a pick 5 kickoff leg, I’m considering 4-6-9-2-10-7-8, so there had better be some cohesion to come in subsequent races. (Spoiler: there’s not in the early sequence.)
R5: Turf Sprint
#9 Cogburn has been untouchable this year and the only threat would be high-class Europeans #12 Bradsell and #11 Big Evs bringing a different level of challenge to him. But they drew terribly, as did talented South African hopeful #10 Isivunguvungu. The key for me will be well-drawn #4 Starlust (20-1 ML), a European who has hung with some of the favorites overseas and now is advantaged in terms of a potential easier trip. Break out the tris and supers for the first time Saturday with 9 keyed on top and the 4 (with ALL) in other spots. Single Cogburn in any multi-race bets if you’re playing.
R6: Distaff
Everything about this feels like a trap. #2 Thorpedo Anna has had an amazing season, but you have to be concerned that the 10F Travers knocked her out. Her return in the Cotillion was barely enough to beat 2 fillies who couldn’t win the Mother Goose last week, much less take on older horses in the Distaff. Yet, #6 Raging Sea also regressed mightily in her last after beating since-retired Idiomatic 2 starts back, and the undefeated Japanese filly #9 Awesome Result is completely unknown while dominating at home at a level below that nation’s best. She could be something special, but a short price to find out? Not for me. This is a good race to watch; no bet. If playing the pick 5 or pick 4, it’s hard to use both Cogburn and Thorpedo Anna in back-to-back races and feel good about any appealing payoffs. The uncertainty of this race will keep me out of the early pick 4s and pick 5s.
Race 7: Turf
#10 Rebel’s Romance should run his race and have a say in the outcome, but taking 5-2 or so on a 7-year-old with his wild career travel itinerary feels risky. Do you have some better options at prices? #3 Shahryar (10-1 ML) finished third in this race last year from Japan and it was a much better edition of the Turf with Auguste Rodin and Up to the Mark far better reps from Europe and the US than this year. Shahryar was competitive with Rebel’s Romance in Dubai this spring and fits at a better value. #5 Jayarebe is a progressing 3-year-old for UK-based Brian Meehan, a 2-time BC Turf-winning trainer. He’s 4-1 ML and may go shorter, picking up steam amongst handicappers. I’ll work the value player Shahryar in the first and second with Rebel’s Romance and Jayarebe keyed along with the rest of the all-international tris and supers. (3 with 5,11 with 5,11,1,2,4,10 …. 5,11 with 3 with 4,11,1,2,4,10 etc). The second key play of Saturday in terms of intra-race exotics. Going 3,5,11 for multi-race purposes as a new pick 4 and the day’s pick 6 begin here.
Race 8: Classic
The Classic concerns are obvious: dirt for #3 City of Troy; facing elders for #9 Fierceness, #1 Forever Young and #11 Sierra Leone; distance for #12 Arthur’s Ride; and pace/race style for marathoner #14 Next. If you’re going to get about those 6 serious threats with questions, you could land on the proven Japanese elders #6 Derma Sotogake and #7 Ushba Tesoro at double-digit prices. I can’t concede this to the American elder handicap runners here as that division was so historically weak in 2024. I keep going back to Next, who has run freakishly strong every time out. And while he’s been running farther against weaker, few if any in this race would be coming home in the splits he has on the back end of those marathons. He reminds me of his damsire Awesome Again, who simply could not be beaten in 1998 even when he got to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and faced all the nation’s and world’s name players on dirt. I’ll be using #3 City of Troy and #1 Forever Young with immense respect in any intra-race exotics, along with #11 Sierra Leone and the aforementioned #7 Ushba Tesoro for the closers to get minor shares. But I’m going to try and ride with #14 Next as the on-top key (just some minor action bets, nothing serious) and as a single in the multi-race bets (late pick 5 starts here), spreading in some other legs.
Race 9: F&M Turf
The pace over this 1-3/8 miles trip around 3 turns looks as clear-cut as any over the weekend: #2 Full Count Felicia takes them as far as she can go, and #5 Didia could be sitting a dream, first-over trip. That’s the Ortiz Brothers controlling the tempo and we’ve seen this play out rather non-combative in similar situations. I expect this to be 2-5 turning for home and let the chips fall. #3 Cinderella’s Dream is once-beaten in 7 starts for the Appleby-Buick tandem, but has yet to face older rivals. She’ll get a 4-pound allowance that helps. #4 War Like Goddess has been a slight step below her best self this year, but caught the eye training for this and may be set to peak. #10 Moira is super reliable. The longshot kicker is #12 Soprano, who ran into total buzzsaws in her last 2, aboard and domestic. This is a great betting race with 2-5-12 all in double digits. Work those hard in the intra-race exotics with logicals 3-4-10 mixed in. Trifecta 2,5,12 with 2,5,12,3,4,10 with 2,5,12,3,4,10. That’s a $30 play for each 50 cents and one of the weekend’s real temptations for me. In the multi-race bets, we get some separation by going 2,5,12 only.
Race 10: Sprint
A blazing pace is expected with #1 Raging Torent, #3 Federal Judge, #5 Don Frankie, #8 Straight No Chaser, #10 Mullikin and #11 Skelly all various degrees of hot early. The horse who could get a dynamite trip would be #4 Nakatomi from midflight and his third-place finish in last year’s Sprint shows he can play. He’s not as brilliant as Federal Judge or Mullikin, so he’s going to need some help. My gamble here is for a meltdown, and a closer like Aloha West when upsetting this race at Del Mar a few years back. #2 Gun Pilot (20-1 ML) rallied to win the Churchill Downs Handicap on Derby Day, so he can handle some crazy environments and win at a high level on his best day. He was a distant second to Mullikin last out and would need help to reel him in, but that’s a very possible repeat exacta from the Forego. In fact, I’ll use an ALL-2 exacta as my key play, getting more combinations with Mullikin and Federal Judge on top over Gun Pilot than the others. A smaller win bet accompanies the late-running #2 Gun Pilot. For multi-race bets, I’d try to swim with 2,3,10,4.
Race 11: Mile
My Breeders’ Cup success multi-race wise will anchor to the brilliant 3-year-old filly #7 Porta Fortuna. She ran a dynamite race in last year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf and tipped that the trip is of no concern. Her sophomore form has been nearly untouchable in the UK against her age and elders. Next, bring on the boys in a division where fillies have flourished throughout history. She has a great turn of foot, which will play perfectly at Del Mar. I don’t project big prices underneath for the exotics, respecting #1 Ramatuelle, #6 Notable Speech, #4 Diego Velazquez and #9 Johannes. #7 Porta Fortuna is my bold single in all the wagers at 4-1 ML and I’ll use my budget to leverage her in the multi-race bets.
Race 12: Dirt Mile
So many ways this could go, but if it’s won by a horse up front, they will have earned it. #1 Saudi Crown, #2 T O Saint Denis, #3 Full Serrano, #6 Seize the Grey, #7 Tumbarumba, #13 Pipeline and #14 Skippylongstocking all have won recent races on the front end. I’ve long been a fan of #8 Post Time, but have been more appreciative of him this year as he’s upped his game from Maryland to compete on the NYRA stages. He’s a legit, turn-of-foot finisher in miles and will get every chance to fire. #9 Domestic Product has been lights-out around 1 turn, but just okay around 2 like this. I respect his form, but can’t hang my hat on him without some help. Same goes for #12 Mufasa, also by 1-turn sire Practical Joke like Domestic Product. Both are in raging form and sort of look like the same horse – the either both fit or neither fits. This is a massive spread race as far as your budget allows in multi-race bets. Given I have 2 singles in the late pick 4 and pick 5, there’s room to stuff the ticket in this leg. A 1x3x4x1x14 pick 5 can be tried for $84 and give us any number of season-making possibilities. The same ticket for smaller budgets can include each horse in the finale at $6 each as your opinion or budget warrants.
Remember, by resisting earlier pick 4s and pick 5s that don’t elicit a solid opinion or have obvious pitfalls, you may have more budget in place for the late pick 5 that falls more into your zone. That’s how it works for me this weekend.
Saturday Key Bets Review:
Tris/Supers: Races 5, 7,9
Late Pick 5: Races 8-12
Good luck!