Jeremy Plonk's final Belmont Stakes morning insights
Buckle up; it’s going to be a long ride: 14 races, more than 9 hours from 10:45 am ET to 8:02 pm ET. The Belmont Stakes will be Saratoga’s 12th at 6:41 pm ET.
Spend the new few hours putting your gameplan in motion. Identify your 3 or 4 key plays on the card and budget accordingly. Unlike the Kentucky Derby with its unique 20-horse field size, the Belmont Stakes does NOT have to be your betting focus on this day. It’s like most any other day in that your heaviest bets should be on your strongest opinions and best overlay prices.
That said, I like Resilience in the Belmont Stakes, but I’m not over the moon for him. He lost more ground than any major player in the Derby, struck the front at the top of the lane and then ran out of starch. He’s training very well, but is a question mark for 10F still. At 10-1 or so, he’s the best horse at the best price. But that betting interest diminishes if his price shortens and he doesn’t wind up proper value. Based on the will-pays from the Acorn-Belmont daily doubles, Resilience likely will be the fifth wagering choice, so that desired number could very well hold.
If the price shortens, it will flush more of my plays into exactas or a pass. Around him, there’s obvious appreciation for favorite Sierra Leone and likely second choice Mindframe. The other price player of note will be Honor Marie, who suffered the most troubled of trips in the Derby.
Undercard-wise, note a key scratch in the Brooklyn (Race 6) with Charge It now out. That will make Bendoog a heavy favorite. Admittedly, I’m a terrible Saratoga handicapper over the years, so I’m not going to be diving in today like I would most Triple Crown cards. Know your strengths & weaknesses, accept your faults. My strongest feel comes in the Woody Stephens (Race 8), where I have a lot of respect for the Oaklawn victories by Valentine Candy and Nash. I’ll focus on them with Prince of Monaco in the exotics mix.
Good luck!