Friday Pick 4 Insights + Race of Week Analysis
Jeremy Plonk: Remington Park Primetime Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, August 18, 2023
Friday is opening night of the 2023 Thoroughbred season at Oklahoma City’s Remington Park. First post is 8:07 pm ET and the track will be adding an early pick 5 to the betting menu beginning in the opening race. The Primetime Pick 4 (late pick 4) typically is the featured multi-race exotic on the card and includes the $100,000 Governor’s Cup as the main event.
Let’s get to work.
Remington Park | Race 6 | maiden
A lightly raced group of 2-year-olds may seem daunting to start, but consider that trainers Kari Craddock (#5 Ready) and Austin Gustafson (#8 Angel Kiss) are exceptional with rookies in Remington Park juvenile races the past few years. Kraddock is 6-19 (32%) and Gustafson is 7-22 (32%) here since 2020. Mix in the solid Canterbury debut runner-up #2 Short Stretch and feel covered.
Remington Park | Race 7 | allowance
#8 Too Much Action has a versatile running style that could come in handy. #1 Rowdy River is formidable on form and has rail gas, but some additional ‘cheap speed’ in this race from #6 Behind the Curtain and #9 Robert Who could muck it up for Rowdy River. It’s also difficult to split the Lone Star maiden breakers on the immediate class rise, so let’s single to #8 Too Much Action, whom I trust more.
Remington Park | Race 8 | $100,000 Governor’s Cup
The 2021 Oklahoma Derby winner #3 Warrant will be a strong favorite for Brad Cox in the stakes feature. But I’m not sure he’s in his best form as his Cornhusker effort at Prairie Meadows, a track and race that should play very similar to this, was subpar. I’m going to stand against, giving a chance to blow up the return on the ticket if he doesn’t bounce back. #4 Holden the Lute has dynamite speed for this distance and, if the stamina holds, is the most likely upsetter. Let’s add depth with #1 Kokokomo, #2 Presidential, #5 Number One Dude and #6 Sonneman
Remington Park | Race 9 | allowance
Steve Asmussen trainees win 23% on the Remington turf the past 5 seasons and Bret Calhoun a slightly better 24%. That’s strong for #4 Get Serious and #7 Lady Got Moves. #2 Run Slewpy Run is an obvious horse-for-course and local stakes winner of repute. #5 Love Tank has quality dirt company lines and bred to be a turf runner. I absolutely love inside closers on this grass course who rally up the opening for the chute in the final furlong. That’s my top pick.
The Ticket
5,8,2 with 8 with 4,1,2,5,6 with 5,2,4,7 = $30 for $.50 play
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Race of the Week: Iselin at Monmouth | Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023
by Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile division gets one of its key springboards Saturday at Monmouth Park when the Philip H. Iselin Stakes is renewed. The 1-1/16 miles event has been won by the likes of Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Spend A Buck, Skip Away, Ghostzapper, Formal Gold and more recently Code of Honor.
Field Depth:
WEYBURN is the field's lone graded stakes winner, successful at the Grade 3 level. Stakes winners include FAR MO POWER, TRADEMARK, WHELEN SPRINGS and ZOZOS, the latter also Grade 2-placed. STEAL SUNSHINE is Grade 3-placed in search of his first stakes win. WEYBURN has held the strongest company lines overall.
Pace:
ZOZOS looks to have controlling speed in the Iselin, while TRADEMARK and WEYURN will be in closest pursuit. This race should be won from a horse near the lead based on projected set-up.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-WEYBURN: Strong second to Mandaloun by a neck at Monmouth in the 2021 Pegasus, we know he can handle the track. After 7 straight 1-turn races, trainer Todd Pletcher stretches this one back around 2 turns and hires hustling early rider Paco Lopez, an Iselin winner in 2011, 2020 and 2021. Pletcher won this race in 2005 and 2012. This one's 2-turn efforts in the Alysheba, Jim Dandy and Pegasus -- against tougher competition than this -- is very promising.
2-STEAL SUNSHINE: Finished a rallying third in April's 7-furlong Sir Shackleton at Gulfstream behind Iselin rival WEYBURN. He's yet to win in 4 starts this year and has lost 6 straight while inconsistently delivering his late kick.
3-FAR MO POWER: Jockey Dexter Haddock looks for back-to-back Iselin upsets after a 14-1 score in this race last year with Informative. Ten straight superfecta finishes for this 5-year-old gelding are a testament to consistency at Parx. He has some pace versatility, but likely tries to fire from slightly off the pace vs. these.
4-ZOZOS: Three straight triple-digit winning Beyer Speed Figures and the Brad Cox brand in the program should make this a solid post-time favorite in the public eye. Son of Munnings is out of a Forestry mare and probably at his very best at a mile, like his last 2 races at Churchill and Ellis. He can beat this level of competition up to 1-1/16 miles and will be a tough out Saturday.
5-TRADEMARK: Certainly wouldn't mind a little moisture in the track given his last 2 victories have come on wet going. Forecast calls for some rain Friday, but Saturday expected to be dry. His best races are when he's into the early mix and this pace set-up should have him in the first two or three down the backstretch. That's a plus compared to the local Salvator Mile bid when he was too far back before running third.
6-WHELEN SPRINGS: The only local winner in the field, this Street Sense colt scored an allowance here June 17 before a solid second in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup on the stakes re-rise. Looks to have moved up in last 2 starts since moving to trainer Lindsay Schultz, a 25% barn in 2023. Veteran jockey Jose Ferrer won the 2000 Iselin.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ZOZOS is in peak form and gets a soft pace set-up as the speed.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No big prices expected, but TRADEMARK should be a modest number and get a good trip.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Respect ZOZOS, but really like the stretch-out, rail and rider for the top play: $100 win WEYBURN.