Friday Keeneland Picks from Jeremy with Stats & Trends

Good luck on the Friday card and don’t forget when you play the late pick four that my friends at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offer a $2,000 Hit & Split bonus.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 13, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Stakes action returns with the Grade 3 $300,000 Sycamore for the turf marathoners. Among the full field entered is Channel Maker, Eclipse Award winner and earner of just under $4 million.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,7,9 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temps in the low 80s are in a spectacular forecast for Friday.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers stretch out to 1-1/8 miles on dirt to start the early pick five. We’ve had 22 dirt claiming routes at this rare 9F distance and note 17 winners exited preps at a mile or longer and 10 of those were making surface changes from their most recent start. Sire Union Rags has had a trio of 9F Kee dirt winners, 2 in claiming races and 1 in a maiden claimer, so pedigree could be a plus for Punctuality. Horseshoe Indianapolis preppers won 2 of the first 5 claiming races of the Fall Meet, which is good news for Faith Runner and Oneparticularharbor. That’s as many winners as the entire 2022 Fall Meet in the claiming ranks, paling in comparison to Churchill’s 11 (repped here by Punctuality, Sound Doctrine and Levy).

2nd Race

Two-year-old maiden claimers dash 6 furlongs as the early pick four gets underway. Lean heavily toward experienced runners here, who have won 39 of 49 such MCL juvenile dashes in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites underperform slightly around 30% with an average winner a very juicy 7.2-to-1 odds. Kobe W intrigues as a son of Not This Time, whose offspring excel here on the dirt, getting blinkers and making a surface change. His 8-1 morning line price is the kind of horse you’re looking for in these races historically. Sharp Kee MCL trainer Eddie Kenneally sends out Augustine Red, who also adds blinkers.

3rd Race

Starter allowance sprinters match up here at 7 furlongs. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the 12 starter allowances here between Fall 2022 and early Fall 2023. She Dazzle and Invaluable are the only CD reps in this field. We’ve had 49 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets and the average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-49. But note 41 of 48 winners were 8-1 or less, including a 3-1 non-favorite in Thursday’s opening race, so these have been excellent betting chances for fair prices.

4th Race

Second-level (N2X) allowance sprinter heat it up at 6 furlongs. A short field of 5 is entered, which puts more emphasis on early speed. The average winner in the 33 such races of 5 or less at 6F on dirt at Kee has been just .13 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, one of the strongest speed pushes you’ll see here. Early pace here figures to come from Gilcrease, Elite Forces and Fit to Fly. Jockey Julien Leparoux has won 5 of those 33 races, easily most of any rider, and partners with Gilcrease.

5th Race

Good options abound as elder turf maiden special weight routers extend to 1-1/8 miles to start the pick 6 as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. We’ve only had 9 prior Fall Meet elder MSWs on turf at this 9F trip, 6 of them won by horses who last raced at 9F or longer. First-time starters have been blanked. The average winner has been a healthy 7-1 odds. The average winner in these races is just over 2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, showing more propensity for early position than all other classes of races at Keeneland for this trip/surface, where the average winner is more than 3 lengths off the front at that juncture. Kentucky Downs and NYRA share about one-quarter each of the Fall Meet MSW turf winners as prep locales and the best places to look – but there are 7 such options in the main body of this field. Excited to see second-time Arrogate colt Auden in this spot as a son of Filimbi, who hit the board at Keeneland in the Jenny Wiley and First Lady Stakes in her excellent racing career. Raise High could also be a pedigree player by sharp Kee turf sire Noble Mission.

6th Race

The late pick 5 opener is a lower-end $16,000 open claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Churchill preppers hold a strong 28-10 edge over Horseshoe Indianapolis in Fall Meet claimers at $20,000 or less levels. Four here from CD include Mr Bariley, Khozan’s Success, Populist and Improbable Story. At 1-1/16 miles, the average winner at this class/trip in Fall has been just 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. You want to be in the early mix, which should help Huge Bigly with an inner draw and return to dirt along with wide-drawn Dream Keeper, a son of excellent Kee dirt route sire Super Saver. Populist and Midnight JJ also figure to be forward, and perhaps Improbable Story if sent from the outside. 

7th Race

An absolutely graded-stakes quality turf allowance at 1-1/16 miles begins the late pick four and serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Kentucky Downs preppers are the place to look in Fall turf ALW races here, featuring 12 of the 26 winners in Fall ’22 and 3 of the first 5 in Fall ’23. KD reps here include Hozier, Play Action Pass, Ocean Atlantique and Injunction, the latter pair particularly interesting to this eye coming out of the same race Aug. 31. Mike Maker’s 21 Fall Meet turf ALW wins are second-best among all trainers and he’ll saddle Ocean Atlantique. Among the contenders is Tiz the Bomb, local winner of the 2021 Bourbon Stakes.

8th Race

Two-year-old maiden special weight competitors extend the trip to 1-1/16 miles on dirt. These historically are very formful races when 2YOs route on the dirt in MSWs. Favorites have won 22 of 48 offered with an average winner just 7-2 odds. Only 3 first-time starters have won, so demand some experience. Churchill preppers have a big 23-9 edge over NYRA, but it’s the Saratoga shippers here I prefer in Genetics and Cowgirl Charm, the latter for a Todd Pletcher barn that’s already won with 3 juveniles at the meet, including a MSW, the Alcibiades and the Breeders’ Futurity. Pletcher’s 5 wins in 2YO route MSWs on dirt is second-most at Kee to Dale Romans’ 7. Only 9 of these 48 have been won by horses making a surface change like several of these attempt, so I’ll lean to the horses exiting dirt preps.

9th Race

Friday’s featured race is the Grade 3 $300,000 Sycamore Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf, which concludes the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. The favorite has only won this twice in the last 17 years of our database, but 13 of 17 winners were 7-1 or less – making this a great betting race historically. Closers have ruled the roost with an average winner 6-1/2 lengths back after the first half-mile and no winner within closer than 1-1/2 lengths of the front at that early stage. Demand a prep 9F or longer last time, and emphasize longer as 11 of 17 winners prepped at 1-5/16 miles or more most recently. Red Knight won this race in 2020, but was a disappointing eighth last year. Deep-closing Limited Liability is 2-for-2 at Keeneland in allowance races and should appreciate moving off the friendlier-to-speed Monmouth turf in the United Nations. Bold Act raids from French form for Charlie Appleby, whose outfit just missed Saturday by a nose in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile. Channel Maker is a local stakes winner of the 2022 Spring’s Elkhorn over this course/distance.

10th Race

Open $20,000 claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs to draw the day’s action to a close. Churchill preppers hold a strong 28-10 edge over Horseshoe Indianapolis in Fall Meet claimers at $20,000 or less levels. Herd Immunity and Emerald Express rep CD while Nepotism offers intrigue from Indy. The latter is 2-for-2 at Keeneland and both are by sharp Kee dirt sire Union Rags. Last locale and pedigree points to this pair. In 6-1/2 furlong dirt claimers in Fall Meets, 27 of 37 winners last raced at this distance or shorter, perhaps given the edge to Nepotism adding distance vs. Herd Immunity on the cut-back. Trends lean that way, but this is the kind of spot that trainer Mike Tomlinson and jockey Joe Rocco click here at Kee and they’ve got Herd Immunity.