Friday Keeneland Final Analysis After Scratches
We lost yet another key play on a card to scratches today with War Mule coming out of Race 2. Scratches also took out our Race 7 second choice Nosleeptilbrooklyn, but that’s a deep race with options still circling.
Our best shots remaining come in Race 6 with Curlins Incharge best-equipped for the 1-1/8 miles distance test, and then a pair of ML prices in Race 10 with Sea Singer (10-1) and Thomas Aquinas (15-1) potentially finishing the day with a moneymaker.
Haven’t found any groove at all so far in Week 3, but not able to put my finger on it. So we’ll keep the process and keep working until good luck turns our way. Have a great Friday!
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 18, 2024
What to Watch for Today: Four allowance races and a Race 7 juvenile maiden with pedigrees galore make up the 10-race card. Jockey Jose Ortiz exits a 3-win Thursday, while Tyler Gaffalione returns to the saddle today after serving a 2-day suspension.
Races 4,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: More sunshine expected with temps in the upper 60s. Fast-firm conditions continue.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp
1st Race
Dual-condition claimers sprint the about 7-furlong distance to launch the early pick 5. Favorites are 7-13 in Fall Meet dual-condition 7F CLM races with 11 winners at 7-2 or less. Churchill preppers have 6 wins (Horseshoe Indy next-best with 2), and 5 of the 8 here hail from CD. Only 2 of 13 winners exited a 2-turn prep like Dance Some Mo and Black Powder bid. Vittorio should be forwardly placed in a race whose profile has been for horses just a couple of lengths off the front end. Not a strong opinion here in a race where 6 of 8 runners finished 6th or worse last time.
2nd Race
Two-year-olds sprint 6 furlongs to start the early pick 4. In 55 past Fall Meet 2YO 6F MSW races, 27 first-time starters have won (including 2 of 3 so far this meet). And when studying the experienced horses in this race, I’m not enamored with the quality of races they exit. Think rookies. The average winner is three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half mile, and note only 8 winners closed more than 3 lengths from that juncture. Scratches took me out of my top 2 options in this race and sort of defaulting now to D Bigalow with no conviction.
3rd Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint about 7 furlongs in this one. Favorites are 6-13 so far in the current Fall Meet in claiming races with an average winner 7-2 odds. Churchill preppers have won 5 CLM races at the meet. And the CD cast wins about one-third of every Fall Meet N2L claimer we’ve run on dirt (22-6 edge over any other circuit). The CD preppers here number 8 and include my major players Double Your Money and Merit most preferred. Double Your Money has the best maiden win in the field and Merit second-best with MSW scores at Kentucky Downs and Gulfstream, respectively. The entire field has 3 combined local starts on the Kee dirt and nothing to show for those.
4th Race
Turf allowance routers match up over 1-1/16 miles in this one, the first leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Favorites won 7 of the first 15 turf ALW races at the meet with an average winner 3-1 odds. Kentucky Downs and NYRA (Sar/BAQ) preppers have each won 6. The KD reps are Stir Crazy, Hidden Connection and Lute Warm with none from NYRA and a rather eclectic cast of travelers. Only 1 of 11 turf route ALW winners at the meet was leading after the first half-mile (average winner more than 4-1/2 lengths back at that point. Stir Crazy appears the best finisher from the KD crew. Wildcard Quatro Y Vinte makes his US debut via Uruguay. We had a first-time South American turf winner in Thursday’s Race 4 ALW via Argentina.
5th Race
Starter allowance routers go 1-1/8 miles on dirt in the first leg of the Pick 6. We’ve had 19 route STR ALW races on dirt in Fall Meets, with an average winner at 7-2 odds and only 1 winner over 6-1. The average winner is 1 length off the lead after the first half-mile (only 3 of 19 closed more than 2-1/2 lengths at that stage). Churchill (7) and Horseshoe Indy (4) are the most common successful prep locales. Joe Sharp is 1 of 2 trainers to win 2 such races and sends out Write Off Jerry. The 7YO Truculent is obviously interesting having run against Breeders’ Cup Turf or Classic top prospect Next last out at Parx; his prior start at Monmouth fits well and he was a Fall ’20 winner over this track. Code Runner and Indian Gulch are the others with Kee dirt wins in the field.
6th Race
This dual-condition claimer opens the late pick 5 and extends the trip to 1-1/8 miles on dirt. We’ve seen 17 Fall CLM races at this 9F trip, favorites winning 5 with an average winner 5-1. The average winner is 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. 8 of 17 winners came via Churchill preps. Don’t be afraid of a surface change as 6 of 17 winners last ran on turf like Montauk Point and Face Value bid. Surprisingly, 11 of 17 winner last prepped at a mile or shorter, such as Arrogates Spirit, Shakin Loose, Where Is Lisa and City of Clouds attempt – all at what figure to be larger prices. Love the Curlin in the pedigree for Curlins Incharge over this trip at Keeneland and this gelding already has been a solid third over the same trip locally. That’s my lean but there are some interesting chances in the exotics here.
7th Race
The late pick 4 begins with a 2-year-old maiden special weight over 7 furlongs. The first 4 of these at the current meet were won at 2-1, 5-2, 3-1 and 6-5 on Thursday with Brad Cox-trained rookie Uncle Jim. It’s been a nearly even pull 19-18 wins from first-time starters and Churchill preppers in 48 previous races at the age/class/distance. Ellis Park already has popped a pair of winners this meet. The average winner is 1-1/4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 3 of 48 winners closing more than 5 lengths from that point in the race. Lyric Street is an interesting first-time starter for Brendan Walsh, who is having a superb meet. The Street Sense filly is a granddaughter of G1 Ballerina-winning sprinter Harmony Lodge. Among the other rookies, Serpahia is a $1 million Gun Runner who is half to Tenfold.
8th Race
This turf sprint allowance is second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Favorites are 4-8 in turf sprints at the meet after Double Clutch’s Thursday ALW win as the chalk. Rusty Arnold trained that one and wheels back with Just a Care, the 2-1 morning line favorite. NYRA has produced 4 of the turf sprint winners so far, but Kentucky Downs has been responsible for 3 of the 5 ALW turf sprint victories. Makeup and Howboutdemapples represent KD here, and the latter has a very good runner-up on the resume in a similar Spring ’24 race. Top turf sprint pilot Irad Ortiz Jr rides and that’s the lean. Port Townsend has been away since the Giant’s Causeway Stakes here in April, but trainer Cherie DeVaux’s horses are firing big of late and has to be respected.
9th Race
Friday’s feature race is a 2-year-old route allowance at 1-1/16 miles. We’ve had 25 such 2YO route ALW races on dirt in Fall Meets with favorites underperforming with 6 wins (24%). The average winner has been over 5-1 odds. Churchill preppers have 11 of the 25 wins and here include only Quinn’s Promise and Mizmalice. These races skew strongly toward horses who last raced at 7 furlongs or farther, something 4 of those have not, including potential favorites Paradise City and Bless the Broken. Trainer Dale Romans won a similar race here in the ’23 Fall Meet that paid $21 and intrigues with Quinn’s Promise.