Free ARLINGTON MILLION Picks & Analysis

$1,000,000 GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION AT COLONIAL DOWNS
Saturday, August 12, 2023
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The Arlington Million changes venues to Colonial Downs this Saturday as the historic American turf race anchors a card that also includes the Secretariat Stakes and Beverly D., familiar sidekicks from their days in Chicago. Colonial will be the fourth backdrop for the Million, which previously included Arlington, Woodbine (following the fire at Arlington) and Churchill Downs last year.

The mile and one-quarter Arlington Million attracted 11 entrants, 4 of them existing millionaires, including SANTIN. Last year's winner will try to become the first back-to-back winner in this race's history and join the legendary John Henry as the only two-time Million champs.

​Field Depth:   
ATONE, ROCKEMPEROR, ADHAMO and SANTIN are the Grade 1 winners in the lineup. SET PIECE and MASTER PIECE have victories at the Grade 2 level. CATNIP and NEVER EXLPAIN are Grade 3 winners, the former also Grade 1-placed. This field is very balanced in terms of class.

Pace: 
STRONG QUALITY has made the lead at some point in 7 of his last 8 starts and is most likely to set the tone. Those in closest pursuit figure to be ATONE, CATIP and WIN FOR THE MONEY, though the latter is a Mark Casse stablemate of STRONG QUALITY and may not be sent into the fight too soon. This looks like an average pace for 10 furlongs on turf and no running style should be greatly compromised by the set-up.

Our Eyes: 
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
 
1-STRONG TIDE: Grade 1-placed performer has been flat late in his recent races and picks up 5-6 pounds off his last several bids. Colonial all-time leading jockey Horacio Karamanos aboard helps navigate the local course for the Kentucky shipper.

2-NEVER EXPLAIN: Appears best at trips a bit shorter than the Million, which makes sense as his damsire (stamina side) is miler Forestry. He's in career-best form off his last 5 starts at 4 different venues. He'll fire, but may run out of oomph late.

3-SET PIECE: Deep closer gives himself a lot to do and was beaten favorite in this race last year when at Churchill Downs. Another who may be a better closer in shorter trips than this, and at age 7 has been solid this year, but slightly off his prior form. Jockey Florent Geroux won the 2015 Arlington Million on The Pizza Man.

4-ATONE:  Tempo may be key with this Mike Maker trainee. He's run his best races when the opening splits are solid, 47s, vs. those that dawdle in the 49s. He wants to get into the race, get after it, and keep punching, like he did in the Pegasus World Cup Turf this winter at Gulfstream. This tempo sets up decently for him and aggressive early rider Kendrick Carmouche gets a great post to work with. Dangerous.

5-ROCKEMPEROR: Seven-year-old has won just 1 of his last 8 starts and has finished out of the money in those 7 losses. While a true distance horse and Grade 1-proven, the connections here of John Velazquez and Chad Brown are a rare pairing, but figure to be more popular at the windows that this horse's form deserves. Likely underlay at 12-1 or less.

6-MASTER PIECE: Trainer Rick Dutrow turned Saffie Joseph Jr. transfer White Abarrio into the Grade 1 Whitney winner last Saturday at Saratoga and it will be no surprise if he does it with this 7-year-old again at Colonial. MASTER PIECE also will be second-time Dutrow like White Abarrio, and notice this horse's best performance, winning the Eddie Read at Del Mar last year around this time, was on a similar form cycle. Major threat.

7-STRONG QUALITY: Speedster is 0-for-4 at races 9 furlongs or longer and will pick up 5 pounds off his recent efforts. Unproven at the class level, he'll lead them for a good deal before giving way.

8-CATNIP: No excuse second in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth last time out as the 6-5 favorite. Trainer Mike Stidham has had success at Colonial over the years, and this colt won here in maiden company last summer before tiring in the Virginia Derby. He's got more foundation this time for the 10-furlong return to Colonial. He is back on 3 weeks rest and this will be his fifth race in a row since late April, a heavy toll by today's standards.

9-ADHAMO: The 2022 Grade 1 United Nations winner has not started in 9 months and you'd think that a 10-furlong trip off that break would be a very tall task. But trainer Chad Brown defies conventional handicapping thought processes more often than not, and he attracts ace turf pilot Flavien Prat. Excellent running style keeps him a few lengths back and gives him every chance to fire. Brown has won the Million a record 4 times, so beware.

10-WIN FOR THE MONEY: Synthetic surface performer has crossed the wire first in both turf attempts (DQ'd from the win 2 starts back), but has never faced stakes competition on grass. Damside pedigree suggests the mile and one-quarter will stretch him a bit far, and from an outside draw and step up in class, I'll pass.

11-SANTIN: Defending Arlington Million winner was in career form last year and benefitted from a Churchill course that was coming apart at the seems and flattered his running style. He's 6: 0-0-0 since winning this race a year ago and showing no visible signs of snapping out of it, though his last 2 races on dirt were curious maneuvers that perhaps you can forgive.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No locks in this space, but ATONE should get a dynamite trip and the narrow call for most trusted. But at 7-2 favoritism in the morning line, there's not a lot of value there in the win pool.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MASTER PIECE likely is sitting on a big race at 12-1 morning line and would be the play even at half that price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win MASTER PIECE. $10 exacta key-box MASTER PIECE with ATONE and ADHAMO ($40).