Final Saturday Keeneland After-Scratches Analysis from Plonk

The only major new scratch to our Saturday opinions with top pick Taking Candy coming out of Race 8. Several scratches in the Race 7 Perryville Stakes — already knowing Locked was running in NY vs. here — weren’t surprising given the top-end strength of that race with Book’em Danno and Knightsbridge. The hope will be to get Epic Ride into the exotics at a price underneath.

Best bet today is Race 3 with Hit That Review. Best longshot comes in Race 6 with Two Eagles River (15-1 ML), but it’s a race type where favorites have ruled this meet. Respect the favorite in Race 10, but price shots Judith and Grove City Sunset make exotics a possible key for the afternoon.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 19, 2024                            

What to Watch for Today: Elite 3-year-old sprinters are in action in a pair of stakes, the Grade 3 $300,000 Perryville (Race 7) and the Grade 2 $350,000 Raven Run (Race 9). Jockey Luis Saez exits a 3-win Friday, while Tyler Gaffalione rode 2 winners in his first day back from a 2-day suspension.

Races 3,8,10 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies and temps in the low 70s are forecasted. Fast-firm conditions continue.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

The early pick 5 starts with a 2-year-old maiden special weight sprint at 6 furlongs. In 56 past Fall Meet 2YO 6F MSW races, 27 first-time starters have won (including 2 of 4 so far this meet). The average winner is three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half mile, and note only 8 winners closed more than 3 lengths from that juncture. Lil Breezy may be most interesting of the 5 rookies in this cast, along with Lovely Words, whose trainer John Ortiz has had some success during Week 3 of recent Fall Meets saving horses for easier spots than the start of the meet. Of the experienced runners, watch out for Wisconsin Gal, who makes a serious rider upgrade from apprentice to Frankie Dettori. She’s by Army Mule, whose runners are a ridiculous 11: 5-1-1 with limited Keeneland dirt starters, including Federal Judge’s smashing Phoenix Stakes win earlier in the meet.

2nd Race

Claimers sprint 6 furlongs at the $20K level as the early pick 4 gets underway. Favorites are a 7-16 strong mark. Churchill preppers have won 7 of 16 claiming races so far this meet after taking 2 of 3 offered Friday. Among the quartet of CD reps here, Stand by You intrigues most. His solid local record includes a Spring ’21 MSW victory sprinting. The 6 such claimers at this 6F trip have been won by 2 front-runners, 3 pressers and 1 closer (average 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile). Trainer David Jacobson already has a couple of claiming dirt sprint wins at the meet and looks for another with Awesome Annmarie.

3rd Race

The kickoff leg to Saturday’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is a 2-year-old maiden special weight grass dash. We’ve only had 6 of these dating back to their 2018 debut in Fall Meets. Favorites are 3-6 and top price is 12-1 (average 9-2). Power posts 3-4-5 have a strong history here and profitability in full-field turf sprints. Before scratches, that boosts Unlock Your Heart, Ornato and Hit That Review with beneficial draws. Hit That Review looks strong from that grip for Brendan Walsh/Tyler Gaffalione tandem having an excellent meet. One of Hit That Review’s runner-up tries was against Floodlites, a colt who came back to run third in the Indian Summer Stakes this meeting – and a colt Restore also ran admirably against in a different start.  Trainer Wesley Ward, far and away top Kee turf sprint and 2YO trainer, sends out Caribbean Wind, who was a Spring Meet baby dash winner on dirt. Ward has won 8 of 16 Kee 2YO turf MSW races run (which includes Spring, Fall and the delayed Summer 2020 meet).

4th Race

Entry-level (N1X) allowance 2-year-olds stretch out to 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Favorites have hit 27% with an average winner of 6-1 in such races in past Fall Meets, so there’s some worthy shopping. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset picked up his 6th win of the meet Friday and stayed hot; he’ll have well-drawn Authentic Strike here. Churchill and Kentucky Downs preppers have traded wins here mostly, a surprising turf-to-dirt factor from KD. Look to the Crown reps KD, while the CD cash includes Righteous Star, Authentic Strike and Jack’s Time, the latter pair exiting the Iroquois Stakes.

5th Race

The pick 6 opener is a $100,000 maiden claiming sprint for older horses over 6 furlongs. These races are difficult to categorize because they’re pseudo maiden special weight races at such a high level. In 21 sprints at 6 furlongs so far this Fall Meet, the average winner has been 1 length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 2 of 21 closed more than 3 lengths at that point. Think pace. I didn’t rely much on any trends here. Shortstop gets a rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione and had some trouble last out with a chance to rebound. But don’t take too short of a price on any of these. Morning line favorite Arrogancy has lost 11 times, albeit with 7 second-place finishes. Trust wanes in this one.

6th Race

Second-level (N2X) allowance sprinters clash over 6-1/2 furlongs to begin the late pick 5. Of the 9 dirt ALW sprints so far this meeting, favorites have run roughshod with an incredible 8 wins. The lone non-favorite was a 2-1 shot. Average win odds has been even-money. That said, 3-2 morning line choice Wico, who has run big races here in the past, seems highly logical. He’ll be tough under Frankie Dettori for Wesley Ward if ready to go off the Spring Meet layoff. We had a winner on Friday’s card also back first time from the Kee Spring Meet. If not the favorite, I’m solidly behind upset hopeful Two Eagles River, a talented Oaklawn sort last year on the comeback trail in ’24. Disregard his last on turf and the form plays with the best in this race.

7th Race

The co-featured Grade 3 Perryville Stakes kicks off the late pick 4. This race debuted in 2015 and returned to the stakes schedule in 2021. Favorites are 1-4 overall with other winners juicy 6-1, 6-1 and 8-1 returns. All 4 winners were between 1 and 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Last year, Raise Cain became the first to cut back from a 2-turn race to win it, exiting the 9F Oklahoma Derby. Grade 1 Woody Stephens winner Book’em Danno and unbeaten Knightsbridge, away since March, will garner much of the betting. Last year’s BC Juvenile third and Breeders’ Futurity winner Locked is expected to scratch and run Saturday in New York today in an allowance. Tyler Gaffalione (Dilger) leads the colony with 3 stakes wins so far this Fall Meet.

8th Race

The middle leg of today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is a third-level (N3X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on grass. So far we’ve had 12 turf route ALW races at the current Fall Meet. Favorites have 5 wins, an average winner at 3-1 and only 3 between 5-1 and 9-1 at the top end of prices. It hasn’t been as Saratoga/Kentucky Downs dominant as many years (Sar 4, KD 3). Trainer Brendan Walsh (Irish Aces) already has won a turf route ALW race at the meet and looks for more. I like his chances in this spot, especially with a key scratch of Taking Candy. Dripping Gold was a course winner here in the ’23 Spring, joining Irish Aces and El Kabong as the existing course winners.

9th Race

The featured Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes has been run 10 times since the return of dirt in 2014. Favorites are 4-10 with 4 straight winners at 3-1 or less odds. 2 of 10 led after the first half-mile, while 1 closed from farther than 4-1/2 lengths back. The average winner has been just under 2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Emery should be a deserving favorite off her 7F runner-up in the Test at Saratoga behind Ways and Means, among the top favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She has the field’s lone local victory, scoring a Kee ALW sprint in style this Spring Meet. Her trainer Brad Cox leads the current Fall Meet with 3 stakes wins. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has a current meet-best 3 stakes wins as well. V V’s Dream was runner-up here last Fall in the Alcibiades, showing some affinity for the track.

10th Race

Two-year-old turf mile maiden special weights conclude the card and today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve had 2YO turf route MSWs at the current meet, none won on the front and the average winner more than 4-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Saratoga and Kentucky Downs have 2 wins apiece. Graham Motion already has won 2 such races at the meet and aims for 3 with High Breeze. Favorites underperform in these races historically at 24-83 and an average winner of more than 9-1 odds. Don’t hesitate to shop. We had a 50-1 on opening weekend in such a spot. Jonathan Thomas won a similar race here earlier in the meet and lures Irad Ortiz to ride impeccably bred rookie Judith (out of Informed Decision). Sire Twirling Candy is having a big meet and sired a similar winner here already at the stand; he’ll look for another with Birkin Girl.