Final Friday Keeneland Picks After Scratches

No major changes to the selections today with only a couple of third picks scratching and not in my win considerations. Let’s finish the meet strong!

Best bets today: Race 4 #7 Mo Pics Please, Race 8 #8 Andrea and Race 9 #11 Nice As Pie. Like the price #12 Sang in the Race 10 finale as well. Good late card here to play.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 25, 2024

What to Watch for Today: Co-featured stakes go back-to-back with 2-year-old sprint fillies in the $200,000 Myrtlewood (Race 8) and 3-year-old filly turf milers in the Grade 2 $350,000 Valley View. They’ll be part of a pick 6 sequence that has a $19,063 carryover. Jockeys Jose Ortiz and Emmanuel Esquivel rode a pair of Thursday winners.

Races 5,7,9 make up the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies with temps nearing 80 degrees are forecasted. More fast-firm conditions.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

Race 1

Elder maiden claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs to kick off the early pick 5. We’ve had 8 elder MCLs at the current meet with an average winner nearly 10-1 odds despite 3 winning favorites. It’s feast or fame as $40, $46 and $47 winner have also reared their heads in these spots. Trainer Cipriano Contreras and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel teamed up for a 31-1 upset on Thursday with Woodcourt. They’ve got Major Mack here fresh off the claim. Experienced horses have won all 8 so far, so I’ll resist the first-time starters. Miyagi is a wildcard, off a year and drooping in class. But his prior form plays and trainer John Ennis has had a good meeting spotting horses competitively and lures leading jock Tyler Gaffalione.

Race 2

The early pick 4 starts with a rare 2-year-old maiden special weight over 1-1/8 miles on turf. We haven’t had one at this trip since 2019 and there are 9 of them overall since 2012. Favorites are 5-9 with a pair of prices at 12-1 and 14-1 topping the returns. Five winners were forwardly placed, 3 deep closers and 1 stalker. Six of 9 went 1-1/16 miles last out in the prep, all 9 went a mile or longer. We’ve had 7 juvenile turf MSW routes this current meet, none of the 7 winners within 2 lengths after the first half-mile (average 4-1/2 lengths back at that point). Kentucky Downs has produced 3 of 7 winners at the meet, Saratoga 2. Courageous Clay may be most appealing of the KD preppers. Sire Hard Spun has had 5 winners at the meet (4 on turf) and represented by Stonington if that one can draw off the also-eligible list. Cherie DeVaux already has a 2YO MSW turf route at the meet and looks for another with Altplano.

Race 3

Third-level (N3X) allowance runners battle at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Favorites 3-8 in dirt route ALW races at the meet, but these have produced 14-1, 24-1 and 32-1 bombs as well. Four of 8 winners exited Churchill preps (4 other venues produced the 4 winners). Positano Sunset and Catmint are the CD reps here. Positano Sunset has the field’s only local win, sprinting to an April ’23 allowance victory. Her runner-up last out has been flattered when Open Mind winner Zeitos returned to win the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes opening weekend. Only 4 of 20 winners at 1-1/16 miles on dirt this meet were more than 3 lengths back after the first half-mile.

Race 4

Two-year-old maiden claimers match up over 6 furlongs for the $100,000 price tag. We’ve had 7 MCL races for 2YOs this meet so far. The average winner has been 4-1, including 3 of 7 winning favorites. Brad Cox (Our Shenanigan) and Dale Romans (Defiant Lass) both have already won similar 2YO MCLs at the meet, and both barns are going well to close the Kee season. Our Shenanigan is by strong Kee dirt sire Practical Joke and should factor. Mo Pics Please comes out of a better-than-looks effort here 13 days ago when dueling with one of our best bets of the meet and only succumbing late.

Race 5

The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and the $19K carryover pick 6 start with a first-level (N1X) allowance at 1-3/16 miles on turf. We’ve had 16 turf route ALW races at the current meet, favorites slightly underperforming with 5 wins. Only 2 winners topped 6-1, however. Saratoga and Kentucky Downs have produced 5 winners each. Note 75% of the winners were within 4 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. My Boy Tony exits a KD allowance in which the winner already has come back to win an allowance here Oct. 16 (Goldeneye). While none of these have won on the Kee turf, My Boy Tony was second here in a maiden race in Spring ’23 in his only appearance. Sire Hard Spun has had 5 winners at the meet (4 on turf) and represented by Veesture. Trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione have teamed up for 4 wins at the meet and look for another with Tafareeh.

Race 6

The late pick 5 begins with a 2-year-old maiden special weight sprint at 6-1/2 furlongs. So far there have been 12 2YO MSW dirt sprints at the Fall Meet, favorites winning just 3. But only 1 winner topped 6-1 odds. First-time starters only account for 3 of the wins but they make up 11 of the entrants in this field.  Brad Cox has one of the 3 such rookie winners at the current meet and looks for another with Problem Solved. His 15 overall Fall Meet 2YO first-time starter wins at Kee since 2014 are most of any trainer; Steve Asmussen (who sends out Voila Magic) is next-best with 8. Both horses have posted fast works in recent weeks for the debut and are the focal point for me.

Race 7

The second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 is a fourth-level (N4X) allowance turf sprint that also serves as the start of the late pick 4. Favorites are 4-8 in ALW turf sprints at the current meet with an average winner 7-2 odds in these spots. Kentucky Downs preppers won 5 of those, including All I Want Is You on Thursday. Wesley Ward, Kee’s far and away turf sprint leading trainer, scored another one Wednesday with Arrest Me Red and hunts another with No Nay Hudson. Judge Davis is the only local course winner in the lineup, winning here in the ’23 Fall Meet. The rail typically is not the place to be, but Wednesday & Thursday turf sprint winners both scored from the 1-hole where Judge Davis leaves.

Race 8

Friday’s co-feature is the $200,000 Myrtlewood Stakes for 2-year-old sprint fillies on dirt. Existing stakes winners in the lineup include Andrea, Long Neck Paula, Glee and White Sands. Favorites have won all 3 editions of this race since its 2021 debut. All 3 winners also were forwardly placed, 2 on the lead and 1 a length back after the first half-mile. Brad Cox saddled the last 2 victors, but will be conspicuously absent from the ’24 Myrtlewood. Dancing Magic and Empirical Mischief both run back second time at the current meet; a successful path beaten down by ’22 Myrtlewood winner Key of Life. Pedigree players note that hot first-crop sire Vekoma (Praying in this race) picked up his fourth 2YO winner at the current Fall Meet on Thursday – at 3-1, 5-1, 6-1 and 33-1 odds.

Race 9

The Grade 2 $350,000 Valley View Stakes for 3-year-old filly turf milers rounds out the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We have 18 runnings of this stakes in our database going back to 2007 (some years run in two divisions). Favorites have lost an unthinkable 16 editions in a row and just 1 for 18, thanks to Acoma in 2008. The average winner during that time has been just under 11- odds. 11 different circuits have prepped the 18 winners (NYRA accounting for 6). All but 1 prepped at a mile or longer last out, something 6 of these will have to buck in terms of history. Only 1 winner has won on the front with an average winner more than 4 lengths back after the first half-mile – quite a closer’s profile. Graham Motion won this race in 2016, 2018 and 2022. He’ll look for more with Memorialize. Rusty Arnold’s barn has been finishing strong at the Fall Meet this year; don’t sleep on Poolside with Slim. She doesn’t fit any of the trends per se, but Nice as Pie has had some visually sparkling rallies this year that I can’t get out of my head. Her sprint-to-route, second-off-the-layoff form cycle is a good one and she’s a major threat.

Race 10

The card wraps with a 6-furlong sprint on dirt for elder maiden special weight runners. We’ve had 36 such sprints in Fall Meets past, and only 4 have been won by first-time starters. That’s key with Points Is Points expected to take a lot of money for Brad Cox. Favorites are a solid 14-36 in these races with an average winner 5-1 odds. Churchill preppers hold a 13-5 edge on Kentucky Downs et al. The CD reps here merit looks in Taka, Just a Coed, Moringa and my preference, Sang, who has shown dirt sprint speed in a race that doesn’t appear to have a ton of that early lick if the rookie Points Is Points isn’t fleet.